Wednesday, May 27, 2020

BlockFi out, Celsius in

So from that last post, you should've known about the BlockFi data breach.

The simple summary is that I am moving out all my assets back to cold wallets, exchanges, defi hot wallets and etc.

But I am moving a decent chunk over to Celsius.

I have been using Celsius since 2018, but their rates always lagged BlockFi by a bit, although they do have a lot more coins and they also have automated withdrawals under $50K. I always kept some money with them and I've been getting their weekly interest payout email update every week without fail. Quite a nice thing to look forward to once a week, haha.

Anyway, I find the data breach by BlockFi unacceptable. At the same time, I am remembering why I trusted Celsius in the first place after I was catching up on their recent videos.

I've also been researching on their CEL token. Looks promising, but so far inconclusive.

Anyway, the markets have been good to me. Plenty of things to look forward to.

I'm also looking forward to confidently and firmly add "multi-" to my title and not have to worry about losing it. If you know what I mean, haha.

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

3 Quick Crypto Updates

Gonna make it quick.

1. BlockFi was "hacked", but no funds were lost. The problem is that customer data was leaked. Names, emails, addresses, ACTIVITY HISTORY. This is very very very bad. I am strongly considering closing my account with them and stop recommending them. Not sure yet.

Probably gonna burn that email address now and move to another one.

2. I was interviewed in a small DeFi newsletter. Not very relatable unless you follow my Twitter, and also the latter half is pretty deep in technical jargon. Still, might be interesting to some.

3. I won the Synthetix L2 trading competition. An announcement will come out soon I think.

Busy times!

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Argentina 100 Year Bonds at 25c on the dollar


Not much to say that I hadn't already said 2 years ago.

Remember guys, listen to the media, financial journalists and bloggers. No one knows better!

Government bonds are safe.
Cryptocurrency is risky.

Repeat 10 times.

Good dog.

Retail investors of every generation are always blinded by yield. It does NOT help that the current sexy strategies and mindsets are focusing on "FIRE" and "income investing". Is it even a surprise that majority of the Hyflux bagholders are extremely unsophisticated retail?

To be frank, there is nothing wrong with the FIRE or income investing strategy. The problem comes when people read 30% of the strategy and throw out the 70% portion that talks about risks and risk management.

Say what you want about me and my choices of investments, but you have to admit that I have been remarkably consistent in saying that chasing high yields for the sake of high yields alone without factoring risk is an extremely stupid investing strategy.

Good luck investing in this climate, traditional boys.

Y'all need it.

Saturday, May 2, 2020

My "Bad" Advice

Been thinking a bit about my previous post about "good advice gone wrong" essentially.

Wanted to make a short list of opposites, things people consider "bad", which I think is great.

#1 Screw Whole Life Insurance


I made an insurance related post about it, so you can refer here.

The summary is that (1) Singapore has no estate tax and (2) you don't need insurance coverage when you are not producing income aka zero opportunity cost.

Many people are suffering from stockholm syndrome and continue to deny this simple truth.

Sorry that your sexy female friend that became an agent scammed you, but that's the truth.

#2 Homes are NOT investments

Again, spoke about this way back in 2014.

Not much more to say than that 1 similar sized house = another similar sized house. If there's a profit to be made, then (1) you are DOWNGRADING in convenience, amenities, location etc or (2) there is a market mispricing that you are taking advantage of.

It is rarely the second case.

People also don't seem to understand what the hell is inflation and how that affects your real profits.

Your 2nd property is an investment. Your home is NOT.

#3 "Zero Debt" is lame

Funny, because even I do fantasize about having a fully paid off home to live in.

However, the difference is that I now clearly do not think that it is in anyone's best interest to accelerate payments to pay off their house as quickly as possible.

Yes, it is a "burden" that is finally off your shoulders, but what people do not realize is that there is an opportunity cost of the money.

If you can agree that companies with some Debt on their balance sheet is fine as long as they are borrowing to produce income above debt expenses, then surely you are not HYPOCRITICAL to be unable to see how this applies to people as well, no?

Borrow at 2-3% but earn at a higher rate, your net profit is the difference. Is this very hard to understand?

I do understand that returns are uncertain, but that is just opportunity costs. There is also the cost of being illiquid, which is a very hard cost to calculate as well.

Anyway, the summary is that when I buy my house, I am putting down the most minimum downpayment and taking out the longest loan. For someone like me with such high opportunity costs of capital, it is stupid for me to do otherwise. Of course, most people are not in such an obvious and extreme situation like me.

But still, the idea of "cleansing" yourself by quickly paying off your house is very lame in my opinion. No different to any other sort of irrational OCD - an action that brings about no benefit other than satisfying your own peculiar quirks.

#4 Your Happiness is NOT your Job

After being in the crypto space for years and also seeing how the world is changing, it made me recall this old post I wrote about education.

I find it strange that most Singaporeans are very narrow minded about paths to success.

In crypto, I see firsthand how some people who are particularly smart at very niche NON UNIVERSITY COURSE subject have so much opportunity and are making so much money.

I went to university. Half of my cohort are doing shit totally unrelated to whatever they studied.

Fact is that most people end up in jobs that they don't like anyway. I think it is much more important that (1) they do not have a self entitled mindset, (2) have basic personal finance understanding and (3) know how to seek happiness in their own lives.

None of those 3 things you learn at school, especially not at university.

When people realize that their jobs do not and should not define them, I think it becomes a big epiphany for most people.

Notes

I am sure there are plenty of people that will disagree with me, but hey, everyone has an opinion, amirite?

Just that some people have bad opinions, LOL.

One of the things which I think is important and extremely lacking in our society is skepticism of information and curiosity for the truth.

I am more than happy to be proven wrong and change my mind and stance on any issue, if you have a good counterpoint that blows away my argument.

But many people are not able to do this. They cannot even construct a good argument FOR, let alone parry and take down the AGAINST.

Too many people read shit on social media and assume it's the truth. Dogma is truth. Culture is truth. Why do we do this? Ah gong say must do so do lor. Zero critical thinking. Zero question of authority or source. Zero desire to know WHY.

Don't be a sheep.

Think for yourself.

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

"Good" Advice Gone Wrong

I like this post by D&S a lot.

Actually, I find D&S the only outlet I truly enjoy reading outside of the personal non-professional finance blogs.

#1 stock market returns 6% pa. so invest all your money in it to maximise returns

I do not do this. As most know, I have most of my money in crypto. My IRR is healthily in the double digits annual returns. Maybe triple digits soon, lol.

Within crypto there are many strategies too, so not everything is super degen and yolo.

#2 you can afford to take greater risk investments when you are younger

While true, this tends to make people take overly unnecessary risks for uneven returns.

On the risk/rewards scale, many people take terrible risks for paltry rewards - yet another reason why I'm so deep in crypto. The R/R is extremely skewed positive.

#3 you should use leverage to magnify your returns

Leverage exists in crypto in many many many forms.

But you know what? I am largely unleveraged. The amount of leverage I am taking is in the LOW SINGLE digits. Yes. I'm not even 1.1x leveraged. I do use leverage, but extremely controlled and small amounts.

Many many many people blow themselves up in crypto with leverage. Don't blow yourself up, especially if you are not a pro.

#4 buy (invest) in the biggest home you can

I absolutely hate the Singaporean mindset and approach to housing.

It truly disgusts me, if I am being honest.

Buy a HOME that is suitable for you and your family. Over-consumption is called over consumption because it is EXCESS. Sure, be comfortable, but don't stretch yourself thin for extra rooms that you will never use.

#5 save and invest everything you can, so you can achieve FIRE

Not much to say about this point actually, but I honestly feel that FIRE is super duper extremely OVERRATED in the local scene.

I see my peers in their late 20s and early 30s with absolutely no goals or aims in their lives. If they FIRE, they will be done with the entire Netflix catalogue in a month, and then what? If you're retiring from an unhappy job to pursue something else, then I think that makes sense. If you're thinking the RE part of FIRE is go holiday / do nothing at home, then I don't really think that is going to be a proper good life.

But hey, that's just me. You do you.

On a related note, I also really enjoyed their latest piece which is in a similar vein.

Definitely one of the better sites out there about personal finance.