Friday, February 16, 2018

Join My Crypto Telegram Signal / Pump Group!


Haha, I kid.

I don't have a telegram signal group or a pump group. I don't belong in any of those kinds of groups either.

Anyway, with the recent Suppoman is a piece of shit drama, I finally watched some Doug Polk because he had a video talking about this fiasco, and I have to say, I think Doug Polk is my Crypto spirit animal.

Please give this video a watch. I really strongly encourage it.


I feel like what Doug Polk does as a YouTuber for crypto mimics a lot of my personal and moral views about what it is like being a "public" figure in the crypto space. I echo a lot of points and I actually just subscribed to his channel, heh. I can't attest to his other videos because this is the first and only one I've watched so far, but I really like his style and sense of humour.

Other YouTube channels that I watch are:

CryptoLark - excellent coverage on cryptos and ICOs and interviews, best in class, IMO
CryptoDaily - humourous market recaps
CryptoBobby - down to earth personal views and strategies
David Hay - straight talker with the balls to call out bullshit
Ivan on Tech - programmer with great technical insights
Louis Thomas - regular kid that does casual and relaxed talks on cryptos
Jackson Palmer - Dogecoin creator and does a lot of crypto education and PSA
Andreas Antonopoulos - the original Bitcoin YouTube guy
Dave Levine - Ethereum maximalist
Tommy World Power - long term, long shot crypto investor

BoxMining - serious market recaps (BFFs with Suppo, so I am considering boycotting him)

The list up there is the list of channels I watch. I've definitely stumbled onto other ones, but lots of them are bad, some are pure trash and cancer. Some people running those bad channels are so goddamn stupid, and then you realize that they have thousands of even stupider followers that are just swallowing up all that bullshit. 


Take everything with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Yes, even the stuff you read here. I might be wrong, but I do my best to put out good information.

Yes, information. No, not financial advice. Not trading advice.

Stay safe and be skeptical, always.

Thursday, February 15, 2018

All That Crypto Heat Fizzling Away



Remember when people used to be so hot about crypto?

I guess with the market still down from all time highs, a lot of that heat has dissipated away and along with that, lots of newbie money just lost in this sea of red.

Strangely, I am not too affected. Reason being is that I came in early enough and heavy enough that the average cost of my positions are still deep in the money.

For the new people, especially those that plunged into Bitcoin without understanding it's investment thesis, they got destroyed.

Why were people plowing into $20k BTC when fees were pushing over $20 USD per transaction? Now the price has dropped 50% to ~$10,000 and transaction fees have plummeted and amazing 99% to cost just $0.20 USD per transaction.

If anything, BTC right now is a massive giant howling screaming monkey that is yelling "BUY BUY BUY". At least, that's what I hear myself.

Since most of the degenerate speculators and gamblers being bankrupted and margin called out of the system, we're back in business.

ICOs are still steaming along and the good ones are getting extremely hard to get allocation for. In the GBX token done on Qryptos, $3.5m USD was sold out within 3 seconds to only 131 people. Yours truly happened to be one of them, oh yes.

In my opinion, now is the best time to be for shopping and picking up extremely promising crypto that have come off all time highs by 60-80%. Just a month ago some people were paying 4-5x the current price, can you imagine what a bargain the space is right now?

While the survivors are staring blanking at their portfolios which are 50% underwater, I'm busy rebalancing my portfolio - taking profits from cryptos that held up the drop better, and scooping up the stuff that people are hastily throwing away. These unwanted shits will hopefully be very shiny gems in the not too distant future.

The next 2 quarters are going to be lit with all the development of my crypto holdings.

Oh you know the Singapore Smart Nation, big data nonsense thing? I've whitelisted for an ICO that will be leveraging on that. *cough cough page 31 of the whitepaper cough cough*. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION BY THE WAY.

But yes, blockchain and crypto are useless tulip bubbles. Repeat it til you believe it. Doesn't hurt my pocket though.

While everyone was calling for the $0 valuation of all these crypto tulips just weeks ago, it seems that those same everyone have also missed the story of the entire crypto marketspace recovering 50% over the last 10 days.

That's right. 50% over 10 days. From the day I was shitposting this.

All yell "I told you so" when crypto goes down, but conveniently keep mum when it's tearing its way up?

Typical.

I still hope for one more big dump, but oh well, I guess I just have to live with all these sick gainz. 

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Fiat Failure Food For Thought


Makes you really wonder, all that money in your bank accounts and investments... what would they be worth in the future?

I wonder if there is any sort of money that cannot be arbitrary printed to infinity to inflate away my purchasing power?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmgoldmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmcryptommmmmmmmmmmmm

Nothing comes to mind.

Oh well.

Maybe I'll tuck away $50 into the bank today so I can buy a plate of chicken rice in 30 years time and laugh about it.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

So Let's Talk Crypto Storage

The cool thing about cryptocurrency, which is a very rare property in investments, is the lack of counterparty risks in ownership.

Admittedly, counterparty risks is one of the most overlooked risks that many people assume. Usually because they have no choice to accept it.

But in the crypto world, there is little excuse to assume counterparty risks. Why let a 3rd party hold and own your funds when you can own it yourself?

Are you too cheap to pay $1-10 USD to withdraw your crypto from exchanges?
Are you too lazy to manage your own private keys?
Convenience?

Well, then sooner or later, you might lose your crypto.

Gox.
Coincheck.
Bitgrail.

This one specific unlucky guy lost $1.4M USD that was on a compromised exchange.

How many more exchange hackings do we have to go through for people to finally get this?

Got crypto in an address not controlled by your private key? Not your crypto.

Lack of hardware wallet support is just a lame excuse.

In most cases, there are software wallets and also paper wallets.
If there aren't, it's a shitty crypto to begin with anyway.

As much as I didn't like the idea of keeping my crypto on a webwallet, I didn't want to run a fullnode/wallet for Raiblocks, so I took that risk and used a webwallet. Why? At least I still have ownership of my private keys, and therefore my crypto.

With the whole shitshow happening with Mercatox and Bitgrail for the past several weeks, if you didn't withdraw your XRB/Nano while you could, you really might be too naive for crypto.

While I am sorry for the loss of funds of Bitgrail users, I think that the learning point to be had here is that you shouldn't trust exchanges to store your crypto.

Do you know who you should trust? Yourself.
Do you know who else you can trust? No one. Not even me.

If you can't trust yourself, you're already dead meat in this space.

I have about 10% of my crypto on exchanges (Binance and Bittrex) and with 3rd parties. This is much more than I am comfortable with. I have already planned how and when I will reduce my holdings when them. By the end of Q2, I should have more than 95% of all my crypto in cold wallets for the long hodl.

I keep most of my crypto in my Ledger Nano S, or in private keys which only I have access to. I would recommend for you to consider doing the same.

One of the advantages of crypto is that it allows you to be your own bank. I would implore people to massively improve both their personal and crypto opsec and take custody of their own crypto instead of leaving it on exchanges.

If you don't look after your own money, no one else will.

Friday, February 9, 2018

Feb 18 Crypto Thoughts

I gotta say, Tama from Stansberry Churchouse writes a pretty good overview and recap on the recent crypto crash.

You didn't see it coming? Well, I did, pretty much exactly what he said in his article. I had significantly slowed down my crypto purchases.

Let me show you my historical purchases.


Don't you worry about GMGH. Notice the date of this post? 19 Dec. When ETH was $789, pretty much the current price today. Portfolio returns have dropped due to fresh capital being injected in and bringing down the number, but we're still rolling in the triple digit percentage profts. Oh yes, triple digits. Admittedly, closer to 100% than 999%, but hopefully that changes soon, HAHA.

Stacks and stacks and stacks of ETH sub 300, then changing gears to alts with good long term potential (XRB, BNB), then haitus for 2 weeks (7th Jan - 22th Jan) watching the market go irrational and parabolic, then catching knives buy buying stuff well off their all time highs and chasing the market down to fill my bags as its craters.

Skeptical? Check the charts. Check my posts about ETH/AION/SNM and XRB. I didn't create fake data just for this post. This is only my journal for Fiat-Crypto purchases though. My internal shuffling of crypto-crypto doesn't appear here.

The insane rise of cryptos through December and January was just stupid. It was ridiculous and I knew it would be unsustainable. Oh DGX, why were you not available yet? Hopefully DGX is live before the next correction.

I only bought back into ETH after it had shaved off 35% from ATH and I have been progressively buying it as it goes lower. I have not bought any BTCs recently that weren't immediately traded for something else (XRB, BNB). Although based on the Mayer Multiple, BTC is looking like a really good buy. But that is if you believe the fundamental case of Bitcoin, which I am not a strong believer of.

I'm actually happy that we have crashed from those valuations. Now, that was a bubble. And now we're back in business.

As the market continues to grow and matures, a few of my views since last time has changed and a few more needs updating. I'd just like to share my thoughts on this for people to think about.

Bitcoin continues to lose its dominance because people are beginning to realize that it is old, clunky technology. Is it hardy and resistant to a lot of shit? Yes. Is it useful and convenient? Not so much.

Ethereum continues to grow and will dwarf many other platforms for the time being. "There is enough room for competitors". What's the competitor to Facebook? Nothing. There won't always be competitors in every industry and I think that the network effect of Ethereum is becoming so strong that its developer mindshare and community mass has the gravity to suck in attention, money and development.

Why use another platform, like NEO, LISK, WAVES? Where the core dev team has to maintain the core while also build out all the auxiliary infrastructure? In the Ethereum ecosystem, 3rd party services and infrastructure are being built by the market. Being built by people who want to use it.

Other platforms are reminding me of Chinese ghost cities. Where everything is rushed and built together in a centrally planned grand fashion - but nobody lives there and nobody wants to live there. The only possible contender (still slim) is NEO with their NEP-5 tokens. Still, I doubt it is enough. Is NEO a good bet as an investment punt over ETH? Probably not too bad. Will NEO overtake or rival ETH in terms of actual usage, market cap or development? I have serious doubts. In fact, enough doubts that I have 0 NEO and no intentions to accumulate in the future.

The interesting alternatives, if you like underdog picks, are Ethereum related platforms, such as Qtum, ADA, WAN and AION. These projects use a lot of Ethereum ideas and if I'm not wrong, can run Solidity code on their VMs. That is a big deal, especially if they are planning to challenge the system viability of Ethereum, and not the dapps and their use cases which are building on top of it. Getting projects to "upgrade" from Ethereum to one of these new blockchains would be easy since their code can just be redeployed with minor changes.

Newer platforms like ADA, ICX, AION, WAN, AELF that are the gen 3 blockchains sound really, really promising. Actually, their functionalities are greatly overlapping, so then you need to think about it... if they are are trying to do the same thing, who can actually get it done and will create a platform that people want to use?

The race is on for these gen 3 blockchains to intelligently design how blockchains can communicate with each other and what are the unique selling points of their gen 3 chains. You want something slightly more centralised but also have a voice? ADA sounds good. You want a chain that is an Ethereum fork and can synergize off Ethereum development? That could be WAN.

I focus a lot on the platforms because I have a few beliefs.

One of them is that only a few main large public blockchains will survive and only a handful of platforms.

The future to me is almost painfully clear to have the interopability alliance chains as the main chains, while major blockchains like Ethereum, Bitcoin and NEO are connected to these chains.

Cross chain atomic swaps on the same level? So 2017. Using a gen 3 chain to trustlessly facilitate the cross chain transfer is the more elegant and easier way, rather than forcing 2 lower gen blockchains to try and communciate with each other to perform such a function. Can BTC and ETH do atomic swaps directly with each other? Yeah. Should they? Probably not. Having a gen 3 chain as the custodian and facilitator makes so much more sense, in my humble opinion.

In that vein of thought, the projects focusing on atomic swaps might be better off focusing on how to be linked to gen 3 blockchains that can facilitate value transfer ACROSS blockchains, and multiple ones at that.

Also clear to me are that platforms with Proof of Work, will likely fade out of existence.

Look at the IA.

ICX is delegated Proof of Stake
AION is delegated Proof of Stake + Proof of Intelligence
WAN is using Ethereum's Proof of Stake

Ethereum is moving to Proof of Stake.
AELF is dPoS. ADA is PoS.

Which new blockchains are adopting PoW?

Unfortunately, I think that in the medium run (2-5 years), almost every single PoW chain will be abandoned, value greatly diminished, or have forked over to a PoS model.

This means hybrid chains as well. Decred, I'm looking at you.

WHY we are moving away from PoW and the technical and economical benefits of the consensus models are of minor importance. What is more important for the long term investor is that we WILL. So we can talk and debate about why PoW is better, safer and fairer, but unfortunately, the world might not give a shit about it.

And that is my bet. My bet is that PoS, BFT and their delegated versions will be the main consensus methods moving forward and we are past the days where different PoW algorithms mean anything anymore.

But don't be fooled because not all PoS consensus is built the same way. Some are terrible and some are not too bad. PoS just by itself isn't the Holy Grail.

The only PoW coins that I hold onto are BTC and XMR. You can count ETH too, for now, I suppose. Is there any PoS coin that rivals the privacy of XMR? To my knowledge, there is none.

With Segwit adoption about to blow through the roof, batching become industry standard for exchange withdrawals and lightning network on the way, transaction fees on the Bitcoin network has dropped like a rock. What's the point of Bcash, LTC or all the other shittier Bitcoin forks right now? I would say that their utility and value is correlated to Bitcoin's uselessness, and Bitcoin is slowly gaining utility back with its much lower fees. It's tough to be a shitcoin with no niche.

Now, ICOs.

ICOs are total shit. Almost everything is retarded, garbage or trash. There's like 10 different projects in each segment trying to do data exchanges, blockchain IDs, content streaming and medical records. Dafuq? It's all bullshit in my opinion.

So many ICOs are garbage that I'm being really selective in my picks right now. Even the "low cap, high hype" ones are being taken off my short list. A lot of people think that the only way to juice up returns and make more money is to gamble in ICOs and do quick flips. Hello. That's what 95% of the other participants are thinking too. 5% are just dumb and don't even know what they are doing.

There are only a handful of projects that have crushed it with regards to having returns over just simply holding your ETH. Many are only marginally outperforming ETH while plenty would have been better off just holding ETH in the first place. The graveyard of underperforming ICOs compared to ETH is very large. I predict many of ICO projects will continue to produce weak tokenholder returns.

And that's just about tokenholder returns. Taking part in ICOs is a complex process with many, many treacherous paths to cross along the way. For the blockchain unsavvy, it is almost suicide to do ICOs without any help or guidance. There's many ways to screw up and just one way to get it right. Many people don't get it right the first time. Even people I know who are "veterans" can screw up the simpler things, like gas limits and price. And that's just user screw up. You need to navigate through all the scams and phishing attempts along the way. So if you manage to properly and safely navigate yourself through all these issues, you still have to worry about your eventual tokenholder returns.

And note I say tokenholder returns, not investor returns. Because in 99% of the cases of recent ICOs, you are merely a token holder. No equity. No rights. No voice. No say. And guess what, they are being PURPOSELY structured to be worthless. Because something that is worthless will definitely not be able to be seen as a security.

What is your token for? A pre-paid credit for a FUTURE product or service? Good luck to you. Go to the mirror and say hello to the bagholder that you see.

95% of utility tokens are stupid as shit. And as quickly as the market is realizing that FORKING EVERYTHINGGGGG is becoming a stupid idea, I believe that soon the market will also realize that utility tokens are a terrible idea.

I believe that the structure of many utility tokens are so weak that many of them are almost worthless or have almost no reason to hold any value.

The utility tokens I hold are punts and I have strong doubts that they will be worth billions anytime soon. They do have decent roadmaps and news along the way, and those good announcements and pumps would be when I slowly exit my positions.

Mass adoption is still far away. Too many ICOs are focusing on too narrow niches with zero addressable market. It's just like the China ghost towns. Build it and people will come? Hmmm... I think not. A lot of these projects will fail, not because they are bad ideas, but because it is a bad time to have such an idea.

I guess many are hoping for first mover advantage. But in a world where 99% of people can barely grasp the concepts of blockchain technology, I think they are off to a rough start. Well, I guess they should be fine since they are collecting tens of millions from "contributors", which should give them a lot of money to last until things gets adopted, hopefully?

Hopefully with 2018 shaping up to be the year of regulations, awareness and playful testing, we can actually see legal crypto securities that trade on a global scale, instead of silos on national exchanges. Now to me, that is interesting.

Anyway, my thoughts are quite messy and all over the place.

This crash is healthy and was expected.
Gen 3 blockchains will be the next big thing.
PoW will be replaced with PoS.
ICOs are mostly garbage.
Utility tokens are still terrible ideas.
Crypto-assets / securities will be huge once regulated and legal.

I continue to read a lot and learn everyday. This market is changing and evolving so rapidly that information from a month ago gets outdated already.

But yeah.

Crypto is still all wild speculation and monkeys throwing darts right?
No heads, no tails and no way to evaluate this strange thing right?

You can tell that these luddites have not even scratched the surface of cryptos if all they talk about is Bitcoin.

Old people. SMH.