Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Crypto Soft Flex

As we all know, I've been doing crypto balls deep since 2017.

I'm happy to report that even after that devastating bear market we saw in 2018, I'm still in profits today.

Yes, that's right, I'm in profits.

And better than that, I'm actually in triple digit percentage profits too.

So if you take the most minimum amount that triple digits could mean, that would be 100%.

With BTC at $10,200 and ETH at $210, that would mean that my average buy in price across ALL my purchases is at least 50% of that.

You could probably generalize that my highest possible average buy-in for BTC is $5,100 and ETH is $105. (assuming a 50/50 portfolio, which obviously mine is not)

Also, assuming a minimum of 100% profits as of now, that would make my annualized return ~42% per annum for the last 2 years.

And this is on the back of coming OUT of a bear market and not even in a bull market yet.

Mind you, this is the minimum. I can comfortably assure you that my profits is MORE than 100%. How "low" or how high, well let's just leave it to your imagination. Unfortunately, it is closer to 100% than it is to 999%, that much I'm willing to share.

Perhaps look forward to my next salt post when I post about my 4 digits percentage profits, or maybe when my crypto portfolio exceeds $1M in profits? We'll see how things go. Maybe I get rekt because all crypto is a scam, right? Haha!

As usual, I post SIGNIFICANTLY more on Twitter, with a lot more updated views (since things change so fast in this space). For example, the previous post about me buying back into DGD on the thesis of a corporate raid? I've already exited my position and booked ~10% absolute profits for a short 2 month trade. Those that follow me probably know what is the trade that I have been in that has been one of the main drivers of my returns, haha.

Anyway, just wanted to flex on all you stock / REIT / bond bois.

I actually wanted to make a more clickbaity title, but I'm actually happy that none of the mainstream financial bloggers are in crypto. All still convinced by their idol Buffet that crypto is a scam, lol.

Feel free to continue to believe that crypto is some digital ponzi!

I'll be busy earning retirement money in the easiest market there is out there.

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Negative Bank Deposits in Denmark

Can't make this shit up.

Large accounts (more than 7.5M DKR) would have -0.6% rates.

Denmark already has negative home loans at -0.5% lol.

And while people are paying banks for the privilege of them to hold their cash (and allowing the banks to use the cash to lend out and earn a profit), I'm earning ~12% APR with my USD stablecoins, with no lockups.

Sorry to say, but the world ain't fair.

You don't do the hard work of educating yourself on what matters, you don't get the same opportunities as people who have.

Sunday, August 11, 2019

DGD is a BUY now???

I think DGD needs no introduction.

I used to own a shit ton. I sold majority for disgusting profits. I exited the rest of my position at around breakeven. Recapped all of this in Jun 2019 when I was saying how DGD is crap and will never distribute their DAO funds.


Well, guess what happened?

Anyway, I've been an asshole on Twitter and I've been poking the shit out of their community on twitter - blasting their crap capital returns, terrible yield and below NAV valuations. Also saying that their team is either incompetent or fraudulent. I guess their community finally had enough of my shit and decided that I'm actually not an idiot and know what I might talking about?

Finally, the community has a proposal for a DGD burn for DAO ETH and it is looking like there are very decent chances that it will pass voting.


You can read the proposal here yourself.

Anyway, the game theory of this whole thing now that Pandora's Box is being opened (challenging the status quo that the ETH in the DAO should actually be redeemable) is not that difficult.

Optional Step 1 - team and insiders hold majority tokens and keep blocking the Burn vote until they themselves have bought enough cheap DGD to burn

Eventual Step 2 - the burn vote is approved, boom instant profit.

Anyway, guess what I did, being the opportunist that I am?


I freaking bought back some DGD! Lol!

Hasn't even been a month, but based on the current ratio of DGD/ETH, I'm already up 14% in ETH.

Anyway, this has CORPORATE RAID written all over it.

I wouldn't be surprised if some funds have been accumulating large positions in DGD simply so that they can take part in governance and vote for the burn, and then are able to instantly sit in ~100% unrealized ETH gains until they decide to burn out their position.

In fact, there is already a suspected party doing this which is involved in this quarter's voting.

By the way, there's nothing malicious with corporate raiding. It simply means investors' think that the business has shit prospects are their assets are worth more than whatever the business hopes to earn, so it's better just to dissolve the business and liquidate their assets.

The game theory of this is NOT complex at all (unless I'm missing something?). It is an eventuality that the burn will pass, and when it does, the price of DGD/ETH will shoot up to the realizable ETH value if DGD is burnt. It is not rocket science.

Even if the burn does not immediately pass this quarter, I'm highly optimistic that EVENTUALLY I will be able to sell at a decent price, near the NAV which is ~0.18 ETH. Incidentally, that is about a 100% profit for me if that happens. Though I'll concede that it is likely to pass with a 10% exit tax, meaning that the first burners will realize a DGD burn value of 0.168 ETH, but that's still a very decent +85% profit for me,

I was prompted to write this post after I saw this post by The Babylonians on how they decided to exit their DGD position.

Funny how fate has it, that after me being vocally against DGD for months, I've entered in a position just coincidentally after someone did a great independent fundamental review and decided to exit their position.

I wonder who will be right. Them? Me? Stay tuned to find out! By the way, in case it was not obvious, their base is using SGD, where my base is using ETH. So mileage may vary.

I'll update again later in the future to gloat about this insanely obvious opportunity. Or maybe I'll be wrong. Heh. Who knows?

Worst case, lose money only lor.

Haha!

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Crypto is Simpler than the Current Financial System

People think crypto is complex.
Yes, it is complex.

But compared to the traditional financial system?
It's friggin simple.

Who decides how much money supply is there?
Who checks how much money is there?
Who can verify how much money is there?
Who decides how much NEW money is printed?
Who decides WHO this new money goes to?
Why do these people get the new money? Why not you?
Who can veto where this new money is going to?
What say do you have in this system?

I can bet that you can't answer all the above questions about the traditional financial system.

I can answer these questions about crypto.

Crypto is transparent and open for all to see, learn and use.

The current financial system is opaque and restricted only for those in power to unilaterally decide to do what they think is best for... who? For you? Or for themselves?

WHO even are the people that decides all these things? Are they even accountable? Do people even bother to hold them accountable?

WHAT are the repercussions if they fudge up? Who bears all their mistakes?

You think crypto is a scam or a ponzi. You won't trust a publicly accessible open ledger that is mathematically verifiable by anyone in the world.

But you trust your bankers to sell you mutual funds and whole life insurance, as they drive fancy cars, live in expensive condos and go on luxurious overseas holidays. Definitely NO conflict of interest here, right?

Have you even seen a poor banker? I wonder WHO they make their money from? Not me, I can assure you. So, perhaps... from you?

I'm not here to tell you the answers. I have all my own answers.

I am here to ask you questions. Questions that you SHOULD know the answer to.
But questions that you will never know the answer to.

Do you really think that it is okay for you to not understand all of this? Just trust that "someone", some government official, some ministry, some minister, some banker, is doing a "good job" for "you"?

The alternative is not to rely on "trust" and blind faith of some higher unknown power, but to be able to verify for yourself.

That is not only the promise of crypto, but it is the reality of it.

At the foundational layer, trust is not required. Everything is adverserial. It is precisely because I don't trust you, that absolutely everything is check and verified to be correct and true. The layers that are building on top of this blockchain world either carries over this same principle of "don't trust, but also verify" to eliminate trust issues, or to build trust-minimized systems where the bare minimum of trust is required to operate.

So here you are, logical reader, at this crossroad. What do you do?

Continue you down the merry path of being totally oblivious to the financial system that you are completely in, yet having no idea of how it works, and who it works for?

Or consider the alternative, where the system is public and transparent.

Obviously, I have chosen the latter.

But this isn't about me.

It's about you.

So what will you do?

Monday, August 5, 2019

The Current Crypto Narrative

So, this is the current narrative that is going on, and will go on wrt the macro lenses of traditional investors.

- USDCNH broke 7, XAUCNH broke 10,000 = China can't keep their shit together
- USDKRW broke 1200 = new Asia getting rekt as well
- Japan yield curve inverting = shit gonna htf
- US bond yields dropping
- larger % of global bonds going deeper in negative yields (23% of all global debt, last I heard)

Basically, negative yields means crazy shit is happening.

How will most countries react to an economic recession, since they haven't had to face a global one in the last 10 years? Some might say even close to 20 since the last recovery was on the back of extreme intervention.

It is likely that majority will simply default to the path of least resistance and lowest short term pain, which would be to print money and inflate themselves out of debt issues by depreciating their currency.

That has ALWAYS been the playbook since money printing costs nothing short term.

Well, it costs nothing until the faith is rattled and lost and people refuse to accept and allow their money to have their purchasing power deflated away.

Not surprisingly, BTC and the general crypto market is now getting sent up along with this narrative.

Why? What does crypto have to do with anything?

Well, BTC and ETH are just the major cryptocurrencies that CANNOT be printed. They have a known global inflation level that is DECREASING over time (~4% now), but that's it. Supply and demand affects the price. No one can unilaterally decide to "print" more BTC or ETH and make everyone rich. Their known supply and inflation schedule makes them scarce.

As each day goes by and the world progresses deeper into the digital age and more people realize and understand what is going on, more money slips out of the traditional financial system and finds PERMANENT home in cryptocurrencies - currencies that are unseizable by any government or authority, that are outside the monetary manipulation of the traditional financial system and those that control it.

Now add that to the DECREASING supply schedule over time. Less and less new coins will be minted into existence. BTC new emissions halves ever 4 years. ETH new emissions are adjusting downwards to further reduce inflation, but still be secure against blockchain attacks.

Add both of those together and that means fewer and fewer of these coins will stay in circulation. As the demand to hoard them increase since they cannot be printed, a lot of available supply will be taken off the markets, leaving less and less coins for a growing demand. It'll be a double whammy as fiat currencies accelerate their depreciation, while cryptocurrencies start to skyrocket in value.

Honestly, it's beyond insane for me to think that people in modern day 2019 living in a country with largely free access of information is unable to get their hands on *some* cryptocurrencies.

For me, I sleep well at night. I have an extremely significant portion of my net worth in cryptocurrencies. I have converted most of my family and friends to hold some cryptocurrency, and many more have been exposed to the idea.

I'm not in the business of evangelizing people to be crypto enthusiasts to buy my bags. I don't give a shit what you do. None of my business. Buy crypto. Hate on crypto. I sleep well at night. My thesis is sound.

You think I don't have all the apprehension and questions that you have right now? I don't know that it sounds like a ridiculous ponzi at first glance? Lol. Sorry to burst your "genius" bubble, but I had all these same doubts in 2013 and have been actively questioning them to find out the answer. And after I did, I've gone all in.

It's my money, my choice. I don't need to give YOU a reason. And of course, YOU should not be convinced to buy shit that you don't know or don't understand because of some pseudo-anonymous schmuck on the internet saying that all no-coiners are plebs. But, yes, all no-coiners are plebs. Kek.

People think that at the end of the day, I'm going to sell my cryptocurrencies back to SGD and make a huge profit.

That is wrong.

At the end of the day, my cryptocurrencies will be seen and viewed as money itself, and I will have complete freedom if I choose to continue to hoard them, or spend them. Crypto is rare and precious. Fiat money is infinite and everywhere.