Friday, November 1, 2013

FX Trade #2.1

Currently as of now, my trade is about +90 pips in the money.


It seems done on the 15 min, 1 hour and 4 hour, but I am under the impression that this is just a smaller term correction, because it does look strong on the daily.

However, the dollar has been strengthening successively for quite some time, so I would actually expect it to need to take a break, before ramping up and continuing it's uptrend.

I think that the Swiss PMI later will print well, ending this streak for now and pushing the pair down a bit.

I've already adjusted my SL to -30 pips, so no matter what I'll be ending this trade profitable. I see the strongest near term resistance at 0.904, based on 22nd Oct highs and the dollar index support/resistance. So if that can't hold, my SL will be exposed and most likely taken out. It's okay though, I'm already definitely making profits from this trade. You can't go broke taking profits, right?

Since it's a Friday, volume is going to be thin, but I doubt there will be big moves in any direction.

However, thinking from the bigger fundamental picture, I see gold being depressed, together with the US indices because of dollar strength. Once stocks start to go positive again or if gold bounces off its important technical level, then regardless of the USD/CHF trend, I will be closing the trade. So far, everything has been going pretty accurately based on my End October Predictions, heh. Looking at everything at once, I would say that this change in play will come around late next week, likely on Thursday, which would hopefully hit my 1st TP target. At that time, I will look at the charts again to see how much profits I should lock in and forget, and how much more I would let this pair run.

For now, I shall be buying the dips in this pair as long as it bounces safely off the 0.904 mark that I've got for it.

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