Thursday, June 19, 2014

I'm Calling It Now... MARKET TOP!

You know why it's okay and so easy to call the top or the bottom? People rarely follow up with pundits predictions and forecasts, because there are just so many people out there calling it.

The S&P just came within a hair's length of breaching 1960, but it is at 1955 now. The VIX is ridiculously at 10.5.

There are ton's of reasons why I think that this is IT, and we just see a sideways grind for a while before we fall off a cliff, but I won't list them down, because there is just too many! Margin debt, Q-ratio, credit spreads, sentiments.... oh gawd, the list goes on and on. Check out this post for a summary of many of the points that I use to back my fundamental thinking of this. John Hampson has a great blog and he has done a previous post listing like 40 reasons why the US markets look absolutely horrid. It was actually quite nice to look at all the information together in 1 chart.

I've made similar calls throughout the year, and I have to say that I have put my money where my mouth is at. I'm currently way deep out-of-the-money with puts in the Russell at 1145 and puts in the S&P at 1945. I'm overleveraged and half dead.

We're going to keep playing this massive scam over and over again until we run out of greater fools to pump the market. I hear tons of mainstream media chatter about "money on the sidelines", but the data doesn't add up. Even if you do have money on the sidelines, it is because you realize that hell-no, you ain't buying into crazy valuations like this. That money isn't flowing in, it's dead money.

Sooner (I doubt it will much later) there is just going to be no one left to buy, all the ammunition will be used up. And then, just then, I will finally be right. Now, the real question is, how long can I survive until that happens in my favour?

Going by mathematics, I would say my odds are getting better as each day goes by.

How I am getting ready for the big moves:
-Liquidating all risky assets with positive beta
-Buying precious metals / miners on dips
-Try to stay cool-headed and hawk-eyed
-Ready to ramp up my gambling bits and STFR (Short the f***ing rips!)

Good luck out there guys.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Observe the house rules.