Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Back Up The Truck Boys, This Is It

This chart is from Tiho at ASSOL.

Gold miners have been slaughtered and down pretty much 50% in the last 12 months (link to GDX charts). The 10% drop the day before was spectacular. My total position is probably down about 30% I think, and it is a rather large position.

I was buying at -15% 5-year compounded returns, but we've been just been drifting lower. Too early maybe?

No matter, I'm grabbing my balls and hitting this for another round. I want to buy low and I want to sell high. I can't know for sure if we go up from here or if we continue going down, but after looking at the odds and the risk that I'm taking, I'm putting my money where my mouth is at. I'm increasing my position in the miners by 25%.

The 5 year compounded rolling returns of the Philly GSI is currently at the lowest ever recorded figure since '88.

Even if we only drift back to 5%, that is going to be +25% from here. Yeah, you did the math too? Sexy, isn't it?

So how low can it go? (Yes, that post is about Silver, but the PM trade is all in this together)

Honestly, I don't know, but I'm probably chasing this one to zero boys.

Watch me blow up in a spectacular ball of flames.

This is the washout that I've been waiting for. Will I get washed out? Unleveraged investments with my entire portfolio about 65% cash. 

Not a snowball's chance in hell.

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