Friday, August 21, 2015

Resist..... Temptation....


Regular readers know that I have some mental issue. When I see red charts, I get damned turned on.

There are plenty of charts that looks like shit. I just want to scoop them up and smell the steaming fumes that are fresh from it.


I was going to make a list of names that look like shit to me (means names which I am very interested in), but then I realized that TOO MANY of them look like shit. Look at OUE Comm REIT. Or Far East H Trust. Or Starhill Global. Oh gawd. Jizz in my pants.

And that's just the trusts / REITs that I'm looking at. F&N, First Resources, all the Keppel names, the banks, the telcos, Super Group, Sarine Tech, ST Engineering.... they are all baby seals that are getting clubbed over the head one by one.

Let's face it. The STI has only dropped about 15% so far. This fall isn't even technically qualified to be a "crash" yet. As shitty as things look, they can definitely get a lot worse. Don't basic stress tests use -40% or even -60% drawdown simulations?

Normally, looking at those charts in isolation would excite me into action. However, seeing how this is really a broad based decline across the market, I'm holding back my excitement. I don't want to have pre-mature excitation even before the real thing starts.

I think some people also know that I have been talking about moving out and getting my own place. The narrative that is in my head right now is that the Singapore's property market is already fundamentally shit, so all it needs is a catalyst to just tip it over the edge and get the ball rolling. When it does crash, I am hoping to pick up a unit in a development which I have been eyeing for months and months now. Since I haven't been working for that many years, I have not accumulated enough CPF, so most of my downpayment would have to be from cash. That is why cash is so dear to me right now. I have already spoken to my parents that I might need to take a loan from them to bridge any shortfalls I might have, and they have agreed since they feel that the best investment is a house bought during a property bust.

I am consciously sitting out of the stock market because I've got my eyes set for something even bigger. If not, I would be steadily and unemotionally brushing off paper losses and pulling down my average entry prices for all the good names that are now on sale.

Stick to your plan. Don't get too greedy, don't get too emotional. Don't be mistaken, it's not an easy thing to do. If it was easy, everyone would be rich just from playing stocks.

3 comments:

  1. Good article to display the weakness in human beings. Seeing lower prices will get one excited to buy in. Cheers!!

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  3. Good advice buddy. Seeing the market come down this week, I got so tempted/greedy myself and started picking up shares. Reading your article reminded me to stick to my plan to buy as the market hits certain thresholds i.e 15%, 20%, 30% drop etc and not blow my war chest too soon

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