Friday, September 18, 2015

My Guess for the Fed Announcement

Original Post: 1.55am
Post Announcement Update: 2.02am - No rate hike ;)

Looking at my coconuts, I predict....


NO RATE HIKE!

Well, let's see if I'm right. Gundlach is behind me on this.

My main reason for thinking this way? This article about the probability of rate hike. TL;DR, the probability is 30%.


Let me just remind you again how many bad everyone is at guessing rate hikes. You can't really blame them though, especially if the Fed always say that they are going to raise rates but never.


"At zero, they can only go up!" "How long can it stay at the zerobound?" Hey, is that Japan over there?


They can stay low for a long, long time. Even if rates go up by 25 or even 50 bps, it's chicken shit compared to the big picture.


Anyway, I expect no rate hike. If there is a rate hike within this year, I would be pretty certain that they drop back to the zerobound soon enough.

I hope this starts the ball rolling - the bowling ball rolling down the alley to wipe everything out.

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