Wednesday, October 14, 2015

4 Warning Signs of the US Stock Market

Taken from Zerohedge: 4 Warning and Why You Should Pay Attention. (with some charts from dshort instead because I think it looks clearer)

These are the 4 things that you might want to look at:
1) Profit margins
2) Margin debt
3) Valuations
4) Economic output

Jesse Felder also looks through the lens of history and wrote a great piece about market valuations. I would encourage a look see.

I don't believe in endless economic expansion and the never ending upward trajectory of the stock markets.

As a disclaimer, I am shorting the S&P500 index through CFDs because I'm bored out of my mind picking my toes and looking at the ceiling. The past few weeks watching the markets have been tremendously boring.


  1. Hi GMGH,

    Can I find out which broker you're using for the CFDs, and whether you have one to recommend?


    1. Hi Anon,

      I use CMC markets and they are the only CFD broker that I've had a live account with. I did try a demo account with Oanda but I didn't like it.

      I lost a ton of money playing with CFDs when I first started "investing". In all honesty if I could rewind my life, it is one thing I wish I hadn't dabbled in. I don't think you need to have any knowledge of CFDs to be a successful long run investor. It really is for short-term speculation, or otherwise known as gambling.

      I still vote to stay clear of it. My money in my CFD account is so I don't do dabble in other similar deviant things like online casinos, sports betting, etc. I'm just going with the lesser evil now.


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