Monday, December 14, 2015

I'm Back!

Wow, it's been a long time!


I was away for quite a while, but it wasn't for a holiday like most people would expect. Actually, I was away for reservist! Well, that just means that I still do have a year-end holiday coming up. Aww yeah.

Since I've been away, the market has become a lot more interesting. Let's be honest, shall we? The default "everything is awesome" mode was getting pretty boring. Watching the S&P play ping-pong with the 2100 for months has been mind-numbing. Where's that "multi-year breakout pattern" that's supposed to rocket the stock market out of previous highs? Now who knows if it can even stay afloat above 2000? As you all know, I'm short and I'm hoping for carnage and chaos. I'm sitting in decent profits now, but I'm still deliberating if I should close my position. I think things can get worse, but let's just see.

Oil has been crashing. $35 oil, well I'll be damned, but more so for anyone in the oil business, hahaha. Keppel and SembCorp are teasing me again. Should I increase my positions? I'm already quite hefty at 25%, but oh well it looks great to me. No guts no glory. Of course, no brain same story.

The rest of the SGX is languishing. "Taper tantrum" in happening in the emerging market, as so-called market experts would call it. Whatever the case, things are looking tasty to me. In fact, my lack of capital deployment in the past few months is just pent up buying demand. I love buying red. Just this morning I did some "online shopping".

The new SSB is out and it was close to what I predicted. I will be doing a follow-up post on that soon, hopefully.

Precious metals are flirting with new lows and have been hovering around $1080 for a long time. Is a washout coming? Or is it rather just setting the stage for a massive spike?

I still want to talk about online privacy and security (2 different things). Probably not a lot of people care about this since it doesn't really have anything to do with money, but oh well.

Bitcoin (which I have newfound fascination of) have rocketed from $350 to $450 in a matter of 2 weeks. Hopefully I can find the time and energy to talk about bitcoin in the future, as well as give a perspective from someone in Singapore.

Finally, the last thing that is on everyone's mind is the December "rate hike", which as always, I remain contrarian and say that there will not be a rate hike. Or if there is, we will pretty much almost immediately go back to zero. You can believe whatever macrofuckingprudential bullshit that Yellen pulls out of her ass, and that's your own prerogative. To me, they are just S&P-dependent. S&P up, okay can raise rates. S&P down, oh shit, more QE. Have I been reading too much fringe news? Maybe, but they make quite a bit of sense and their logic is a lot better than "BUY STAWKS, COZ STAWKS ALWAYZ GO UP".


Anyway, it's good to be back and writing on my blog. I've had a serious build up of thoughts that I had to release and just having this outlet and doing up this short post has relieved me of that stress.

I've got plenty of things to write about and tons of things to do, but no worries, all in due course.

I'm leaving now, don't miss me, xoxo

3 comments:

  1. Hmm...interested to know your take on oil, given the rise of shale tech and the recent paris climate deal which aims to put pressure on fossil fuels.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anon,

      As much as technology is progressing, I still think fossil fuels are going to be an essential source of energy until some really ground-breaking in energy storage and production is not only created, but also pushed and rolled out to the everyday consumer. I'm prepared for oil to stay in the dumps for quite a while (1-3 years) since we're in a global glut.

      Delete
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