Saturday, February 13, 2016

About Them Recent Gold Moves

Wow, gold is back to the $12xx eh? I thought we were going to crash through the $1000 support level and eventually head to $0 since we've got a barbaric useless piece of shiny shit on our hands?

In about the span of a month, my gold miners position went from being a very sad -32% to a -9% now. My precious metals portfolio (those available-for-sale) went from from being about -7% to a positive 4% now. In relative terms, that's about a 20% and 10% gain in each respective portfolio!

FYI, my gold related positions are way way larger than my small and humble SGX portfolio. 

This is pretty heartening considering that gold miners usually lag the physical stuff coming out of a bull market and will have a leveraged performance relative to the physicals. I'm honestly holding on and looking for returns in the hundreds of %. Yeah, I'm a bit crazy.

The physical stuff itself has gold sitting at $1237 and silver at $15.65 now. I still think that there is plenty and plenty more upside left in these horrendous shiny paper weights.

The move out of the doldrums have been pretty explosive, so I would expect a retracement now, or after a short cycle high that should occur within the next 2 weeks, which basically is anytime soon. Calling the exact numbers and timeframe isn't easy as it's just as much voodoo and guessing as it is about technical analysis skills.

I'm looking for some indecision throughout the rest of February, followed by a pullback into early March which possibly goes back to almost the 1100 level. That would be my signal to back up the truck for the last call before the ship leaves the port. I would probably split my allocation between the miners and more physicals and then just sit back and continue relaxing. If we go lower, guess what I'll do? Yes, I will buy more. I am that crazy captain who's prepared to go down with his ship.

Gold. Lego. Pokemon cards. Wine. Watches. Some dirt and a pile of rocks (property). It's all the same, isn't it? As long as it has some history of appreciating in value, why are some people so adverse to the fact that people invest in gold?

In fact, compared to most things, gold has a pretty darn good historical track record of being worth something, especially compared to those floppy pieces of fiat currency, which incidentally has a seen hundreds, if not thousands of currencies come and go. And yet people still diss on the gold.

Interesting to note is that the USD looks to me like it has finally topped out. It might bounce since it has been dropping, but I doubt moving forward we see a stronger USD. Yes, it's me against all the bank analysts. Woohoo.

Well, I guess that's why people these days buy into magical-hocus-pocus-"tech"-growth stocks like Twitter (negative earnings), Amazon (500 PE) and the likes of the other fairy forever-growth stocks out there.

Nothing makes sense anymore, but I think some people are slowly starting to realize that.

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