Monday, February 1, 2016

[SGX Portfolio] Jan 2016 Update

As mentioned previously, this will be my attempt at having a monthly update of my SGX portfolio. I have also updated that page to include the historical growth of my portfolio. I find it personally encouraging to know I've come so far from where I started. Hopefully other people may be inspired and also decided to embark on their financial journey.
"The journey of a million miles begins with a single step"
Anyway, here are the current stats of the portfolio as of end January 2016.




Total Cost    $27,175.90     
Unrealized Gains-$3,798.33
Accumulated Dividends $991.63
Realized Gains$628.89

*Total Cost is initial purchase cost of the current portfolio
*Unrealized Gains represents the unrealized capital gains on securities still held in the portfolio
*Accumulated Dividends is the total of all dividends collected thus far

*Realized Gains will only take into account the final net capital gain or loss after including transaction costs to close a long position on a security. 

First off, apologies for not updating in a long time. I've been really busy, which is why I've been posting less frequently and also I'm slow to reply back to comments. I have been begrudgingly updating my portfolio statistics though, so if you go to the sticky page and see the interactive graph, it would give you the important numbers, month by month.

One thing that is immediately apparent is that my investment has increased significantly from $19k in September to over $27k now. But then again, since August I've been quite quietly sitting on the sidelines.

I have added in a few counters here and there, I have not sold anything. I think the biggest difference to my portfolio now is the heavier allocation of Keppel and Sembcorp, which have grown from 25% to 35% of my portfolio. However, my average cost of Keppel has gone down from $7.62 to $6.426. For SembCorp, it has gone down from $3.79 to $3.226. I am planning to accumulate more of these stocks if we can get a nice sell-off, but I am happy if that doesn't happen too since their weightage is getting pretty significant.

I decided to accumulate a bit of the STI ETF with it being down about 20% off its peak at that point of time. I feel that many of the STI constituents are pretty cheap and I didn't want to individually buy the banks yet, so I figured this a lazy and easy way to get exposure.

I have not have had any sell orders for the past few months, and I doubt I will be making any sells for a very long time to come. We seem to be entering the accumulation phase. Does the stock market "bottom" just like this? I would wager with my own money that the answer is, no.

Overall my portfolio is only down 8%, with the dividends and realized gains providing a good buffer in the recent weakness of stock prices. Without taking dividends into consideration, I am down 14%. However, considering that the STI is down 25% and I've still been collecting dividends, this isn't too bad in my opinion. As expected, the XIRR of the portfolio has turned negative since the stock market is languishing. Even though my portfolio is negative, let me be clear that I am not fazed by what is happening.

Annual income from dividends is now expected to be about $1664 for a full year, (taking into account Keppel's cut) but of course I collected some and miss out others by not owning them the entire period. That brings the expected monthly income to $138.74 and daily income to be $4.56.

Based on the dividends I am expected to collect, my portfolio dividend yield on cost is estimated to be about 6.13%. I have taken the lower bound estimate for most of my counters, so it is quite possible to have surprises to the upside. My portfolio yield is rather stable around 6% now, since new additions are generally on the upper end based on their individual yield history.

In the coming months I expect the Singapore stock market to continue to perform poorly. My current strategy is to just brace myself and incrementally add on oversold opportunities. If my thesis is right, there are going to be plenty more opportunities in the coming months. I remain heavily in cash.

I plan to accumulate the blue chips as we continue to sink, while I leave the very juicy and highly attractive REITs to be accumulated when the market is recovering. I would aim for quality and stability on the way down, but on the way back up I should be spraying all over and going for those which I think would have rather handsome upside opportunities.

What drives me with the sharing of my SGX portfolio is to show people an example of how one can work towards their dreams - with discipline and hard work.

Rome wasn't built in one day. Everybody has to start somewhere.

Where are you heading?

6 comments:

  1. Hi GMGH

    You are really heavy on O&G there while I'm not quite sure why you have a couple of 100 shares on some stocks. Do you have intention to add onto them eventually? Seems to me a lot of monitoring to do there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey B,

      Yeah, it's heavy on the O&G side, but I'm just thinking that it's the worst hit sector already, so if I should go bottom fishing anywhere, that's the place to start. Looking at the drawdowns make me nauseatingly excited, haha.

      The 100 shares here and there forces me to monitor them. They are all positions I would like to build up when I feel that the time is right to add. It also helps me spread my attention so I don't get caught up only looking at the stocks I already own in my portfolio and missing out other potentially good buys.

      Delete
  2. Nibble here and there. Might as well don't buy. I believe the shares are bought using stanchart. So they are owned by stanchart instead of yourself

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anon,

      Rome wasn't built in a day and neither is my portfolio. By that logic, I should only buy shares if the absolute amount is... $1k? $5k? $10k? To minimize my transaction costs?

      You are right about me using Stanchart. Since there is no min commission fee, there is no advantage of me buying more than I feel comfortable with to minimize my transaction costs. It is always the same for me.

      I'm comfortable with the custodian model. I am knowingly exchanging lower transaction fees for being 1 extra layer of ownership away from my investments. It's a risk I'm willing to take, but of course I'm not asking or forcing anyone to follow what I'm doing.

      Delete
  3. Anonymous (not me) must be very rich, each time buy minimum 10K and above, portfolio at least $1 mil.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Noticed that many are sore about SCB users, maybe they are just jealous that SCB users pay less commission than using the usual brokers. Haha.

    ReplyDelete

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