Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Just some commentary

Hi guys, sorry for the lack of updates recently. The market has been dead boring, so there really isn't anything much to talk about regarding market moves. Perhaps tomorrow with the budget announcement, we'll have some juicy topics to talk about.

Just some quick commentary.

I recently found out about InvestingNote and you can follow me on my profile here. I'll probably be using this site to make commentary on stocks, but most likely mainly for the STI ETF, as well as names that I personally monitor. I like that it is a web-based site that can load up my chart preferences. Even though I do have Chart Nexus installed on my computer, it isn't on all my computers that I use. Most of the time I just resort to ShareInvestor and look at the basic price chart, but with InvestingNote my technicals get loaded up as well and that's a good thing. I only just joined today, so I'm still exploring the site and its features.

First up is the US indices. I am still mega bearish on the US indices. Fundamentally, nothing has changed, yet stock prices have soared 13% from its recent low, in an almost straight line fashion. This is on the back on reduced earnings and companies freezing buybacks due to reporting blackout. I am pretty sure that the indices end lower from this very elevated level that we are on.

This indirectly is also the same call for the STI, which is a really strong rally on the back on nothing fundamentally changing. Although I believe that the STI is cheap by plenty of valuation metrics, I am not an aggressive buyer until they correct along with the US indices. We need to take the hit of the collateral damage before I see the index, as well as the underlying economy recovering.

As much of a Gold and Silver bull as I am, I believe that this move too of the precious metals is way way overbought and we will have to move lower. I'm looking for the precious metals to make a higher low in the mid 11xx region, where I am planning to increase my positions of them again. It then goes without saying that the weak USD should have a bounce, given how badly it has performed recently. The USD/SGD has come down significantly from the 1.43 high mark. I find it absolutely hilarious how every single bank analyst were calling for USD to the 1.50+ levels. No bank, I repeat, NO BANK called for a lower USD. I have been adament that the bullish move in the USD is unsustainable. Even if and when we do bounce on the USD, I believe that the USD will generally be muted in the future, not bullish.

Of course, linked to the dollar moves in Oil, so I have to also believe that Oil would make another low in the near future when the USD bounces. However, I'm not all doom and gloom about oil, but neither am I ultra bullish on it either. To me, it's just kinda meh and will piss around $30-60 for a really long time.

Anyway, these are all wild speculation that I am pulling out of my ass. Feel free to think of me as delusion and continue to carry on as per normal. Look forward to an update on the SSB soon!

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