Monday, March 7, 2016

SGX Portfolio Back In Profits

With the market making its miraculous recovery over the past 2-3 weeks, my SGX portfolio has been having phenomenal returns.

Counting my realized returns (banked) and dividends collected (banked), it is now more than my unrealized losses, meaning that I am finally back in the positive zone!

Also cute to note, both my gold miners position and precious metals portfolio (which is much larger than my SGX portfolio) is now positive as well. From being -32% and -7% respectively, shooting back into positive territory makes me rather happy. (However, I do think that the rally in precious metals has been also quite giddy, so I would expect a pullback.)

Of course with the STI still off its highs, the only way that I could have achieved this was if I was buying quite aggressively when we were falling (and below current levels), which I was. From Nov 2015 to Jan 2016, I increased my portfolio value on cost by almost 40% and added in about $7000 of fresh funds to buy stocks.

However, while everyone is now bringing out the champagne glasses and celebrating how they have been so steady and steadfast with their emotions, I caution that we ain't even seen the worst of it yet.

While many markets in the world have officially gone into bear markets (and maybe even recovered from them!), one of the most over-valued and most influential markets has yet to crack - the US markets. Although I believe that Singapore is cheap in the long run by many metrics, I don't believe that we would be sheltered from the fallout. The US is one big fat domino set to crash and wreck the whole board for all other players. (Great piece of why the US is a stinker STILL)

By not "chasing after the boat", I'm implicitly betting (by sitting in cash) that this market rally is just a temporary bounce and we will head lower from where we are (1999.99 on the S&P500 lol and 2814 on the STI).

Perhaps I'm a super crazy and pessimistic person, but this in no way feels like "the start of a new bull market" to me. I really ain't buying any of it. Worst case scenario, I miss the first start of the bull market in my investing career. Best case scenario, we get financial armegeddon and I feel good about myself.

If I think everything is going to head down lower, then what on earth am I buying? I'm planning to open a new position in Brazil, increase my position in Russia and also add on precious metals on oversold conditions. Further on into the cycle, I'll be looking to buy up local blue chips at bargain prices.

Anyway people, don't mind me. Just a crazy guy acting out in his own little corner. Carry on.

5 comments:

  1. Yea felt quite sian that the markets rebounded, always prefer buying cheap

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    1. Hi Anon,

      The market is almost down 1% today. Is this the start of the next turn in the market? I hope so! There's too many stocks that I want to buy that I didn't, haha!

      Delete
  2. I agree. This feels like a fake rally. The problems that we faced 2 months ago are still here, unsolved.

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    Replies
    1. Hi DK,

      What's strange is that I have seen people talk about the "economic slowdown" in Singapore, when there has yet to be any official word or comments on it yet. Is the feeling on the ground really getting that bad? It seems so.

      I wished the US worked off its overvaluation so that I can swallow up SG stocks in peace!

      Delete
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