Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Do All The Little Things Add Up? (2016)

One of the small tiny little things that I have done to improve the quality of my life is.... not caring about coins. I really don't care about coins at all. I hated having coins in my wallet because they would jingle, be bulky, be heavy and worst of all, they would ruin my wallet.

Back in 2014, I changed my life when I decided to do away with all my bulky and ugly wallets and I instead settled for a Bellroy Hide & Seek wallet. It is a slim wallet and it doesn't have a coin pouch. It's simple, but it doesn't look cheap, nor does it look flashy. Since then and now, the price hasn't changed, I still use my wallet everyday and it is as good as ever. I swear, without a coin pouch, your wallet can last forever. I remember the first few months I kept thinking I lost my wallet because I couldn't feel the weight of it in my pocket, haha! I love it that it actually looks like a wallet, instead of a round leather ball which I see so many guys carry around these days. It's looks hideous when they plop it on the table and it just looks weird when it's in their pockets.

What's that bulge? Or are you just happy to see me?

Anyway. That was the time where I decided enough was enough. I'm just going to have a small wallet to carry around cash and my big 4 important cards (NRIC, driver's licence, EZ-link / ATM card, credit card). Yes, that's right. I only carry 4 cards in my wallet, and my life is pretty awesome because of that. So where do I put all my coins that I get? Well, I solved that problem by having a coin piggy bank in my office and another one at home. Whenever I get back to my desk or when I step into the house, I empty my pockets and all the change goes into the box.

No more worrying about jingles in my pockets, coins stuck in my pants that goes into the laundry, and worst of all, fiddling with coins at the cashier to make exact payments or for better change.

I just visit the coin deposit machine once my coin boxes start getting full.

In Jan 2014, I put in $90.55
Now in May 2016, I have just deposited $262.44

That's close to $900 worth of coins in less than 3 years! Is it worth it to stash away your coins? You tell me.

For those that are not in the know, the Mint has so far discontinued rotating its machine around the different CC's. This means that there are only 2 options: Go deposit the coins with your bank (higher fees, POSB charges $0.012 per piece, more convenient) or go down to the Mint's head office at Teban Gardens (cheaper, $0.00375 per piece, but more ulu).

Given that the head office is only open during office hours and it is quite ulu, I decided to just bite the bullet and stick my coins in the bank's machine. Guess what? On 3 occasions (2 same branch, 1 different) when I went down to the bank, their coin deposit machine was broken. So, screw that!


I managed to get off early for lunch one day and I made my way down to the Mint's head office. It was pretty easy. You just walk into the main entrance and the machine is up against the wall. There are step by step instructions the whole way, but the process is pretty idiot proof. You just key in your personal and bank details, throw in your coins, then write down your details on another piece of paper. Done within a few minutes. They also have a nice showroom if you wanna buy expensive precious metals, or if you're super patriotic, haha.


Reader LG gave a good suggestion in my previous post last year, which is to sort out the coins to $10 packets and trade it with F&B stalls that need coins. Of course, in such a transaction, the fees would be zero. They need coins and you have coins, so it's a rather fair transaction. However, I got my 715 pieces of coins counted in a few moments and the fees only came up to $2.68. Personally, I think this $2.68 is worth it to not have to count through all my coins, then find stalls to trade with. But that's just my personal preference. It's always good to know of an alternative method!

My coin saving habit has helped me improve my quality of life and also have some nice deposits back into the bank. I will continue this habit. How about you?

Do you save your coins? What do you do with them?

Monday, May 30, 2016

Noble... or NOOOOOOOO-ble

You know that things are bad when even ZeroHedge reports about your stock. I didn't even know about the CEO of Noble resigning (it is rather FRESH news, given that it was just announced on SGX at 8am this morning).

All this is pretty funny to me, considering over the weekend I met some friends and we were talking stocks. Noble was mentioned and everyone was cursing and swearing. There were some that cut losses, and there were some still holding onto it.

When the news of Noble's shitty accounting first hit the deck, my verdict was Death. I took offense that it was so simple to do a due diligence check on their shitty accounting, which made their follow up statements seem insulting to investors for trying to make them look like fools.

A few months later I revisited the stock after it has fallen from $1.06 to $0.695 in case people were wondering "it's so cheap, how much lower can it get?". Again, I stuck my neck out on the line and called this shitty stock for what it is, a value trap.

Fast forward almost exactly 1 year, and where are we today?


From that $0.695, we are now at $0.295. In a year, that is 58% losses. And that's assuming your entry was after the stock had been beaten down from the initial reports, if not your entry price would be well over $1.

While this post is half about how awesome I was (and I do pat myself on the back for it) for making the right call and exiting the stock, the other half and more important point of this post is that you should not be afraid to sell your stocks if there is a fundamental change that distorts your original analysis and now makes that investment seem unattractive.

One of the hardest things to evaluate is the legitimacy of the numbers in the financial statement. Basically, you have no choice but to believe that the numbers listed in their financial statements are true and correct. But if a company can't even list down its assets properly with its real, true value, you can best believe that everything else is shit. SHIT. SHITTTT.


Me thinks this shit blows up and Noble goes bankrupt. What says you?

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Singapore Savings Bond: May 2016 Review, Jul 2016 Preview

Hey everybody, here's my monthly post on the SSB closing and the forecast for next month. I'm trying to streamline my posts to make them more condensed and info-packed in a regular structure, so it's both easier for readers to quickly digest the article and for me to pump them out on a regular basis.

I have made a similar posts in previous months, and I think I will stick with this format.

First up is update of the subscription of the previous issue. As previously mentioned, the SSB will probably have $300 million available to be issued every month of 2016. While it is a HUGE drop from the $1,200 million that they were offering in 2015, the SSB take up rate has been... pathetic, so it makes sense to cut down on the total offer to boost up the fill rate. It looks a look less sad now.


For the May 2016 SSB, we see the first uptick in SSB allocation. That's almost 8% of the issue. Which is funny considering that it was one the worst issues ever. Interesting relationship of low yields with higher investor interest? Who knows. People can be crazy, stupid or both.


This month, there is no the yield curve inversion. The MAS rates showed strong levels of prediction to the actual SSB issue, confirming the relationship that we have identified.

Moving onto the next SSB, we use the same old-fashioned method of looking up the data from MAS and constructing the table below. As a refresher, the current month's rates are used as a proxy for the issue in 2 months time (For example: May 2016 rates are used for the July 2016 issue). Also, if you are in the first 3/4 of the current month, you application this month is for the bond that is too be issued on the 1st of next month (For example: May 2016 applicants will receive the July 2016 issue). I hope this clears up some of the confusion people have regarding the names of the issues.


There are 17 out of 22 data points available for this estimate. I would hazard a guess of 0.95 / 1.05 / 1.60 / 2.00 as the final yields.

This upcoming issue looks set to be better than this current SSB issue. It can be expected to be better across all time frames. Next month's issue is definitely better the current month's issue, if your decision were really that simple and binary. So if you really want to buy some SSBs and are not sure when, it would be advisable to wait for a week and apply for it next month.

Today is the last day of applications, which closes at 9pm. It can be done through ATMs or iBanking.

I would not be applying for this month's issue, and I'm 99% I will not be applying for next month's one as well.

REIT Symposium 2016

I just found out that the REIT symposium is being held next Saturday. Entrance fee is $10 per pax.

I went last year for the 2015 REIT Symposium. It was all right. Aircon too cold, booths not enough cute girls and some speakers were dead boring. It was interesting though, but it was not $10-interesting.

One of the things I cautioned after attending the symposium was about how the majority of the crowd took away that REITs are basically 6% fixed deposits, WHICH IS WRONG. And lo and behold, right after the symposium, REITs on a whole did really shitty and slumped almost 15%.

Phillip REIT Fund as a proxy

It was like one big travel fair where the reps from each REIT tried to sell you their company for you to buy on Monday's trading day.

Some speakers were good, but meh I wouldn't pay $10 to attend this year. $5 or $6 is probably my limit.

The REIT symposium is really for people who sort of know a bit about investing and REITs and want to find out more about particular companies and are too lazy to read and analyze the financial data themselves. In that case, by all means, spend $10 and attend the thing. The line up seems good with Sonny Tan, Wilson Ang and David Kuo speaking. Good riddance Eric Khaw isn't in the line up to hypnotize the entire audience again.

If you were my friend, I wouldn't advise you to go for the REIT symposium. Instead, check out this mega comprehensive REITs guide that was pieced together by Giraffe Value. It's colourful, practical, well-explained and best of all, it's free.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Happy 500,000 Views!

Honestly, I am really quite happy and a bit flattered that my insane, potty-mouthed blog about me ranting about silly things have managed to be of some use to some people. My contribution to the crap content pile in the internet archives will be here for all to see as long as Google is around. Hooray.


Warm welcome to my notable readers (of course, some are not listed, too sensitive, hush hush).

BNP Paribas
Jpmorgan Chase
Exxon Mobil Corp
Barclays Capital
Business Times
Yale

And surprisingly, lots of visits from IDA. I suppose that's a lot better than from the MDA, so I'll take that, no complaints.


Anyway, just in case people are unaware, this is the Internet. And as such, we have the standard rules of engagement for Internet interactions. Comment section is open to allow open channels of communication, but of course I have my own house rules for dealing with trolls. I smite thee of rubbish comments!

That aside, apologies for the slow slew of postings these days. The market is a complete waste of time now, so there isn't much to comment about.

I try not to post for the sake of posting and racking up post counts. I think I have... 211 drafts?! Wow, I didn't think it was that much! I have a lot of posts that don't make the final cut because even I think that it is too edgey. So if you think that I'm a vulgar asshole on the fringe, please be reassured that I am holding back and there's a lot more where that is coming from. You are seeing the restrained GMGH. You want the truth? Well, sorry, you can't handle the truth!

Other than that, I will try to post on stuff that I observe or happen to hear about. I suppose it's interesting to note that people barely give 2 shits about what is the officially reported news from media outlets, and are instead more interested in the reactions and after thoughts of regular people (like myself). Most of the pieces that I write which attract lots of views are usually my thoughts and commentary about market news, rather than original research work.

So, here's to 2 years 10 months of blogging. May I never get bored of calling stupid famous people stupid on the internet for all the stupid shit that they do.


Happy 500k!

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Retail Bonds For Everyone?

Well, I just stumbled on this piece of news. I'm not sure why I haven't heard a peep about it from anywhere. Apparently I am the unofficial MAS media mouthpiece? Haha!

Basically, the rules regarding corporate bond issues to retail investors have been relaxed. The main change is that (a) wholesale bonds can be broken up into smaller denominations and be sold to retail investors in the secondary market or (b) companies can issue to retail bonds without a prospectus !

Since their main aim of doing this is to give retail investors more access to simple investment products, but ensuring that they are not too risky, there are some restrictions as to which kinds of bonds are affected by this change.

Here are some of the criteria:

1a) $1 billion market cap for the past 180 days, or
1b) Net assets of $500 million for the past 3 audited financial statements
2) Listed on an exchange for at least 5 years
3) Guarantees the bonds listed on SGX for at least 5 years
4) Some credit stuff

Basically, the criteria means that only pretty upright companies would make the cut.

Which is good, since the hordes of aunties and uncles pretty much will apply for anything.

I personally welcome the change. We currently only have the extremes, which are ultra safe SGS bonds on one end, and bonds like Oxley and Aspial on the other end.

Monday, May 23, 2016

[SGX Portfolio] Apr 2016 Update

It's been a while, and I've been so busy and lazy, but I've finally updated my SGX portfolio.

As mentioned previously, this will be my attempt at having a monthly update of my SGX portfolio. I have also updated that page to include the historical growth of my portfolio. I find it personally encouraging to know I've come so far from where I started. Hopefully other people may be inspired and also decided to embark on their financial journey.
"The journey of a million miles begins with a single step"
Anyway, here are the current stats of the portfolio as of end April 2016.



Total Cost    $25,887.90     
Unrealized Gains-$2,202.55
Accumulated Dividends $1,296.87
Realized Gains$879.45

*Total Cost is initial purchase cost of the current portfolio
*Unrealized Gains represents the unrealized capital gains on securities still held in the portfolio
*Accumulated Dividends is the total of all dividends collected thus far

*Realized Gains will only take into account the final net capital gain or loss after including transaction costs to close a long position on a security. 

First off, apologies again for not updating in a long time. I've been really busy, which is why I've been posting less frequently and also I'm slow to reply back to comments. I have been begrudgingly updating my portfolio statistics though, so if you go to the sticky page and see the interactive graph, it would give you the important numbers, month by month.

Let's start with the changes to my portfolio. I sold off of Golden Agri ($0.425 average price) at a minuscule profit when it reached $0.43. It peaked out at $0.44 a few days later and it is now sitting at $0.36, so I think it was a decent call. I've been waiting too long for oil palm to turn around and I decided to get out now while I had the chance. After transaction costs, the profit was $1.45. Meh.

I used the money that I got to enter into Global Investments at $0.128. The lowest it has been in recent times is $0.127. I think many people view Global Investments as a shady high yield investment, but I think it is rather under appreciated. I don't want to be too exposed in this, but with my allocation at 2.6%, I don't think I have much to worry. I can pump in plenty more before I get to an unhealthy level of overexposure.

One key change to my portfolio is that I have recognized Saizen's big special dividend payout to be considered as closing out my Saizen position and booking the excess as realized profit. What this means is that my invested capital has been reduced and profits booked, while I still have my "free" remaining shares of Saizen that could give me that last bit of final returns sometime in the future.

Overall, including dividends and realized gains, my portfolio is only down 0.1%. However, considering that the STI is down 20% from it's peak, I would say that I'm doing pretty well.

Annual income from dividends is now expected to be about $1619 for a full year, (taking into account Keppel's cut) but of course I collected some and miss out others by not owning them the entire period. That brings the expected monthly income to $134.92 and daily income to be $4.44.

Based on the dividends I am expected to collect, my portfolio dividend yield on cost is estimated to be about 6.26%. I have taken the lower bound estimate for most of my counters, so it is quite possible to have surprises to the upside. My portfolio yield is rather stable around 6% now, since new additions are generally on the upper end based on their individual yield history.

In the coming months I expect the Singapore stock market to continue to perform poorly. My current strategy is to just brace myself and incrementally add on oversold opportunities. If my thesis is right, there are going to be plenty more opportunities in the coming months. I remain heavily in cash.

I plan to accumulate the blue chips as we continue to sink, while I leave the very juicy and highly attractive REITs to be accumulated when the market is recovering. I would aim for quality and stability on the way down, but on the way back up I should be spraying all over and going for those which I think would have rather handsome upside opportunities.

What drives me with the sharing of my SGX portfolio is to show people an example of how one can work towards their dreams - with discipline and hard work.

Rome wasn't built in one day. Everybody has to start somewhere.

Where are you heading?

Sunday, May 22, 2016

[XMM STI ETF Investing] April 2016 Update

It has been quite a while since my last update. A long long while. My last update was in September 2015! I have been updating on my spreadsheet monthly, but I always forget to post up my review.

As mentioned previously, this will be my attempt at having a monthly update of the small portfolio that I am running for my sister and mother. The aim to have as little downside risk as possible, and maximize returns from there.

Here are the current stats of the portfolio as of end March 2016.

30 September 2015       Sister             Mom               Total       
Amount Contributed
$10,545.09
$23,530.82
$34,085.91
Percentage
30.9368%
69.0632%
100%

30 September 2015  Stocks  BondsCashTotal
Amount Contributed
$3731
$10,547.05
$19,807.86
$34,085.91
Percentage
10.95%
30.94%
58.11%
100%

- Stocks are in the STI ETF (ES3.SI) with 13 lots.
- Bonds are in UOB SGD Fund Class A with 5902.1 units.
- Cash is earning 2.25% from filling up the remainder of my OCBC 360 account.
- Additional $600 was added to Cash.


Interestingly, the end of March marks the 2 year period that I have taken stewardship of my sister's money. From the $10,000 that she had given me 2 years ago, I have put that money into use and I've $10,547.05 to show for it. With almost zero downside volatility (only 3 instances of negative month-on-month performances, which have never been more than unrealized gains, and thus have never put the capital at risk), I have managed to produce annualized returns of 2.67%.

If the markets were to go down further, I will continue buying stocks and the depressed value of my current stock holdings might eat into my buffer of unrealized profits, but that is of no long term concern. If the stock markets were to rise, there should be a rather nice boost to my portfolio performance. We shall see how things turn out.

I will most likely be running out of space in my OCBC 360 account as I near the $60k limit myself, which means I must find this cash another good yielding alternative. I have opened up a CIMB FastSaver account which yields 1% in preparation of this. This change would likely happen soon.

I have begun following my STI ETF Playbook, which is a mechanical strategy to help me overcome emotions and to buy more stocks as the stock market falls. It's not a scientific method at all, but it follows the basic principles of value averaging which calls for buying more when the price goes lower. I have already hit the 10%,15%, 20% and 25% trigger, so I currently hold 13 lots of the STI ETF.


Of course, I don't want things to be so strictly mechanical, so on top of this, I may opportunistically invest the fresh cash added each month into the STI or even liquidate my bond holdings if the opportunity really is very tempting.

The goal is to average down without being too kan chiong or humji, so I think the base case would suit me fine to help me dip my toes into the STI at increasingly safer levels. That's right, the lower the STI falls, the safer it is to invest!

No rush at all, really. Steady she goes.

Saturday, May 21, 2016

Why I Didn't Apply for the Manulife IPO

Short post today, triggered by hearing the news of its first day trading.

1. Most IPOs are priced like shit
2. Rather high P/B valuation compared to peers
3. The stock trades in USD (ain't nobody got time to play around with USD)
4. Forex risks

When IREIT and Accordia were launching their IPOs, I remember clearly warning my father that he should not apply for these IPOs. They were horrible offers, and as we all know, they have since become much cheaper, giving more margin of safety and a higher yield. I had to remind him again not to be itchy fingers and apply for this IPO. He was very relieved to hear that it did not perform well on its first day.

I know most people don't believe in the P/B metric that I like to start off with for my basis of REIT evaluation, but the statistic that I'm going to throw up is that the usual P/B premium for office REITs is... NEGATIVE 2%. Which is why its reliable peer group of CapitaComm, Keppel REIT and OUE-C REIT are all trading at negative P/B valuations. Of course, you could just blame this on localised factors, but I still don't think that the Manulife IPO was priced anywhere near enough to be attractive as an investment. Knock off 20% and I might give it a go.

Lastly, it annoys me the shit out of me that this IPO is in USD. Am I going to buy USD and have a USD account so that I can buy USD stocks and receive dividends in USD? Just fuck off. If they had been around in SGD, I would be much more receptive of this addition into the SGX. Of course I know why they are in USD and not SGD. But it just annoys me, okay? Now I just hope that they are shit, because if this turns out to be a good investment, I'm not going to be involved in it. I don't buy USD stocks. Unless it's some super amazing lobang and arbitrage opportunity, it's not worth the effort. Seriously. There's like 700 other stocks on the SGX. Fuck all those foreign currency stocks.

Apply and get IPO doesn't mean sure huat. For every O&G and Jumbo out there, there are twice as many that have gone the other direction, like IREIT, Accordia, POSH, Pacific Radiance, Secura, Anchor Resources, Trendlines, and most hilariously, Soo Kee and TLV Holdings (Taka Jewelry).

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

New Hyflux 6% Perps?

Woke up today to see that headline. Hey, deja vu. Doesn't Hyflux already have 6% issues outstanding?

Oh wait, that is a preference share, as opposed to the NC3 Perp bonds that they sold in 2014 at 5.75%.

And right after that they sold NC2 Perp bonds at 4.8%.

Now they are looking to sell NC5 Perp bonds at 6%, in order to redeem it's NC2 Perp bonds. That makes sense, since the NC2 Perps go up 2% this year if they don't get redeemed.

Tradehaven writes well on these issues:
2014 NC3
2014 NC2
2014 NC5

Personally, I like the idea of perpetuals. Sounds very nice and comforting, especially for the investor that likes to "purchase income streams". However, I'm just not very sold on Hyflux.


Investing in debt and in equity are 2 different things, which I am not sure most investors understand.

At 60% debt to assets, a very ugly and underperforming stock, 5 year stagnant revenues and declining profit, it doesn't seem to me like it would be a good bet that Hyflux is going to have the ability to pay me back my own money which I lent them without going bust. It's not like they are using their debt / assets well to generate more profits.

Now they are borrowing money to pay back borrowings. Not even going to think much about it.

If you are vested, its a good thing if they can raise money to pay back their debt, since it gets more expensive if it doesn't get repaid. If you're not vested, I would implore you to find some good reasons to get yourself involved in this mess. I can't find any, other than a 6% yield, which is meaningless if you only get paid for a few years and lose the principal.

To me, it's a no no. I'm staying away and I'm just going to watch this show.

Will this subscription yet again becomes oversubscribed by the retail horde? I'm counting on you, aunties and uncles.

Friday, May 13, 2016

In Good Company

Carl Ichan positioning is net -150%.

The legendary Horseman Capital has increased short positions from 98% to 103%.

Me? I'm still short. I've been short since November. In fact, my short position on the QQQ is still open and I made it on 4/11/15, which is pretty much the market TOP. If it is the market top, please remember how godlike and guru my market timing skillz are.

In January, I took some profits (a bit premature, unforunately) and piled into more shorts after that. Since then, I've been incrementally adding short positions in February and March.

Mid April was a very stressful period because I've been in margin call for a month and I was reaching my close out levels. I got through it, but I'm not sure if the worst is over yet. It did get pretty bad though.

Now I'm out of margin call (hur hur, what does that tell you) and I'm preparing to double down and re-leverage everything back into the market short if we break down under 2030.

I think my positioning has been very clear and consistent. You die, I die, everybody die.

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

SG Robo Advisor?

A year and a half ago, I wrote a post lambasting the shitty state of our financial industry. 3rd biggest financial centre in the world? Bitch please, it's a joke. Don't even get me started on "financial advisors". Oh gawd. Okay, stop stop. FOCUS.

So anyway, in that post, I was talking about how US has companies like Betterment who are totally changing the way that people invest. For millennials with the attention span 1 second less than a goldfish, it's bloody difficult to get them to even think about investing. Even me, who is able to talk so colourfully about dreadfully mundane stuff (like everything on this blog), I am unable to get most of my friends to take control of their finances and eventually investing. And at least half the crowd that I preach to are university graduates, which just means that they are plain lazy. You don't need to be some rocket scientist to invest, you just need to not be lazy. And I swear. Too many people are lazy. Just by you reading this post, you're definitely going to end up better off than most people you know. #truth.

OKAY, RANT ASIDE. I typed so furiously that my tabletop and screen was shaking, haha. SO ANYWAY

I just saw this post by TI that introduced SMARTLY. (official website)




So there we go. We might just be able to get our very own robo advisor in Singapore.

Quick wishlist for the guys at SMARTLY to take note:

1) Option to select asset class exposure rather than fixed portfolios
2) Option to calibrate asset class exposure at the end of certain time periods
3) Options for the SGD investor (if you're doing it only in USD, don't waste time, just close your company now la)
4) Multiple asset classes
5) GOLD would be like a jizz bonus asset class
6) Several ways and methods to invest (monthly / annually / lumpsum)
7) Several ways and methods to withdraw (monthly fixed amount / monthly percentage)
8) Referral bonuses (since I'm gonna preach, why not also earn from it?)

Don't feel shy if you want to pick my brain or want to hire me, HAHA.

Anyway, I'm seriously excited about this. Like seriously. I know it doesn't sound like it, but I am. I'm hoping to be one of the first few people to use their services, and then criticize the shit out of them if anything is wrong. If it's not good enough for me, it's not going to be good enough to recommend to anybody.

Monday, May 9, 2016

CMPacific Delist Offer

Just announced that CMP is looking to buyout shareholders and delist at $1.02.

$1.02 is not too shabby considering that CMP was last traded at $0.85.

CMP has been on my shortlist for a while, but it has always felt a bit lofty, especially for the most part of last year. Their rights issue was very sad for them. I was tempted in December for a nibble, but it kept tumbling and tumbling and by the time it was pretty juicy looking at the end of January, I had decided to altogether postpone making any big moves.

Personally, if I held CMP I would be happy to let it go. The fundamentals of China is not too bright and rosy and I think they have plenty more pain to go. Only risky players buying into the China growth story that entered last year would not have made a pretty penny. All other investors at all other times would have some nice capital gains to show for it, not to mention the pretty attractive dividends that they gave out along the way.

Looks like it will go through. With most other stocks doing crappy, pocketing a nice gain like this would appeal to many of its shareholders.

Friday, May 6, 2016

Has Gold Bottomed in 2016? Or Is Gold Overbought?

Don't mind me guys, I've really been a bad blogger. Spank me. No wait, I might like that. I've been busy with work, busy with friends, just generally busy having a life.

I haven't updated my SGX portfolio in a while, but I'd probably do that next week once my life becomes less happening.

I just wanted to post a quick update on some crazy moves in the gold spectrum lately.

And the quick answer to my title question: I personally think that Gold has bottomed out, but where we currently have climbed to, we are overbought. So this is kind of a.... not much to do situation.

Back in Feb, I already did a post about the move in Gold, and since then, Gold has kind bounced around the 12xx range, hitting 1300 once and spooking the shit out of everybody.

At the low point, my gold miners position was down -32%. When I checked a few days ago, it was up 30%. Oh yeah baby. Now it has come off a bit, but I'm still sitting in positive territory, about +15%, give or take.

My actual precious metals position were down -7% and right now I'm up a comfortable 9%.


So yeah. Things are good..... I guess?

Not really.


Tiho from ASSOL would be the first person to point out that this rally in Gold and the related gold miners was just.... MASSIVE. It's hard to argue with concrete data like that.

As much of a classical chartist and famous local precious metals cheerleader (along with Dave, hehe), I do feel that this spike in gold is rather unnatural. I do think that we have to correct a bit to work off the overbought situation, or at least ding dong around the 1100 - 12xx range for quite a while.

As mentioned before, I thought the move into Feb was already seriously overbought and I was anticipating a correction lower for accumulation. Likewise, I still think that the gold situation is overbought and I would be looking for a significant higher low (higher than the 1050 posted in Nov/Dec 2015) hopefully around the 1080 level *fingers crossed* to continue stacking my precious metals positions on all fronts.

I'd actually be a pretty ready buyer at 1150, which is where the 200 DMA and a typical area of support and resistance converge at. 1080 would be a pleasant surprise, 1050 would set up for a beautiful double bottom, and under 1050 we go back into tinfoil-wearing-happy-stacking-land.

I personally believe that precious metals are going to play a larger role in the financial future of the world, but hey, that's just me being a conspiracy theorist. Who gives a shit about some barbaric pet rock when you can just CLT+P and shoot out free money, amirite?

You would've thought that with a 30% profit in gold miners and 10% profit in my blend of gold/silver, I would be happy considering what a shit show performer precious metals have been over my short investing career of 2+ years.

But no. I'm looking for MASSIVE gains. 150% in Silver, 100% in Gold miners and 30% in Gold.

Am I crazy? Greedy? Perhaps both. A crazy greedy asshole. Muahahaha.

And yes, I am STILL short the US markets.