Friday, May 6, 2016

Has Gold Bottomed in 2016? Or Is Gold Overbought?

Don't mind me guys, I've really been a bad blogger. Spank me. No wait, I might like that. I've been busy with work, busy with friends, just generally busy having a life.

I haven't updated my SGX portfolio in a while, but I'd probably do that next week once my life becomes less happening.

I just wanted to post a quick update on some crazy moves in the gold spectrum lately.

And the quick answer to my title question: I personally think that Gold has bottomed out, but where we currently have climbed to, we are overbought. So this is kind of a.... not much to do situation.

Back in Feb, I already did a post about the move in Gold, and since then, Gold has kind bounced around the 12xx range, hitting 1300 once and spooking the shit out of everybody.

At the low point, my gold miners position was down -32%. When I checked a few days ago, it was up 30%. Oh yeah baby. Now it has come off a bit, but I'm still sitting in positive territory, about +15%, give or take.

My actual precious metals position were down -7% and right now I'm up a comfortable 9%.


So yeah. Things are good..... I guess?

Not really.


Tiho from ASSOL would be the first person to point out that this rally in Gold and the related gold miners was just.... MASSIVE. It's hard to argue with concrete data like that.

As much of a classical chartist and famous local precious metals cheerleader (along with Dave, hehe), I do feel that this spike in gold is rather unnatural. I do think that we have to correct a bit to work off the overbought situation, or at least ding dong around the 1100 - 12xx range for quite a while.

As mentioned before, I thought the move into Feb was already seriously overbought and I was anticipating a correction lower for accumulation. Likewise, I still think that the gold situation is overbought and I would be looking for a significant higher low (higher than the 1050 posted in Nov/Dec 2015) hopefully around the 1080 level *fingers crossed* to continue stacking my precious metals positions on all fronts.

I'd actually be a pretty ready buyer at 1150, which is where the 200 DMA and a typical area of support and resistance converge at. 1080 would be a pleasant surprise, 1050 would set up for a beautiful double bottom, and under 1050 we go back into tinfoil-wearing-happy-stacking-land.

I personally believe that precious metals are going to play a larger role in the financial future of the world, but hey, that's just me being a conspiracy theorist. Who gives a shit about some barbaric pet rock when you can just CLT+P and shoot out free money, amirite?

You would've thought that with a 30% profit in gold miners and 10% profit in my blend of gold/silver, I would be happy considering what a shit show performer precious metals have been over my short investing career of 2+ years.

But no. I'm looking for MASSIVE gains. 150% in Silver, 100% in Gold miners and 30% in Gold.

Am I crazy? Greedy? Perhaps both. A crazy greedy asshole. Muahahaha.

And yes, I am STILL short the US markets.

3 comments:

  1. Nice, my unit trust investing in gold miners was also up significantly. Personally I think it's just a beginning of turnaround from mutiyears downtrend.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I agree with your article, I think we cannot fully rely on Gold as our investment tool anymore.

    ReplyDelete

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