Monday, May 30, 2016

Noble... or NOOOOOOOO-ble

You know that things are bad when even ZeroHedge reports about your stock. I didn't even know about the CEO of Noble resigning (it is rather FRESH news, given that it was just announced on SGX at 8am this morning).

All this is pretty funny to me, considering over the weekend I met some friends and we were talking stocks. Noble was mentioned and everyone was cursing and swearing. There were some that cut losses, and there were some still holding onto it.

When the news of Noble's shitty accounting first hit the deck, my verdict was Death. I took offense that it was so simple to do a due diligence check on their shitty accounting, which made their follow up statements seem insulting to investors for trying to make them look like fools.

A few months later I revisited the stock after it has fallen from $1.06 to $0.695 in case people were wondering "it's so cheap, how much lower can it get?". Again, I stuck my neck out on the line and called this shitty stock for what it is, a value trap.

Fast forward almost exactly 1 year, and where are we today?


From that $0.695, we are now at $0.295. In a year, that is 58% losses. And that's assuming your entry was after the stock had been beaten down from the initial reports, if not your entry price would be well over $1.

While this post is half about how awesome I was (and I do pat myself on the back for it) for making the right call and exiting the stock, the other half and more important point of this post is that you should not be afraid to sell your stocks if there is a fundamental change that distorts your original analysis and now makes that investment seem unattractive.

One of the hardest things to evaluate is the legitimacy of the numbers in the financial statement. Basically, you have no choice but to believe that the numbers listed in their financial statements are true and correct. But if a company can't even list down its assets properly with its real, true value, you can best believe that everything else is shit. SHIT. SHITTTT.


Me thinks this shit blows up and Noble goes bankrupt. What says you?

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