Thursday, September 22, 2016

Rate Hike Predictions for the next N meetings

This is how Yellen decides if its time to raise rates or not.

Just kidding, she looks at the S&P500.

Wow, no rate hike. Total shocker. Not.

What I wrote last year in April 2015 is STILL relevant today. Seriously, the Fed ain't every going to hike rates. And this cartoon just sums it up the best.

Honestly, if anyone really really thought that they were going to raise raise, I would think that they might be slightly delusional. The Fed has said that they would be raising rates for YEARS now.

This is an oldie, but a goldie. For more than 7 years now, the Fed has been giving "forward guidance" to raise rates. All in all, one rate hike.

But, oh wait, the next one is coming up VERY SOON. Yeah right. I wouldn't hold my breath for it.

US LT growth is collapsing every other meeting and now stands at a pitiful 1.7%-2.0% forecast. But of course, knowing the Fed and their ability at forecasting, you best be prepared for a number coming in well below that.

Perhaps the only person's view that I respect is Gundlach's. He did call out that this September will not be a hike.

But until anything interesting happens, I'm just sitting back on my itchy hands and watching this whole shit show from afar. It's tough not doing nothing, but thinking about all the risks that are just about everywhere, it's enough to scare me to remain focused and disciplined to my style and strategy.

1 comment:

Observe the house rules.