Thursday, November 23, 2017

Calling out Motley Fool's "Bitcoin Expensive To Keep Safe" BULLSHIT

This article gave me cancer.

Cute disclaimer of "If you're not technologically inclined....".


Q: How much does it cost to store bitcoin safely?
A: Between $0 to $110.

How? A free paper wallet.

Doesn't feel safe that it's on a piece of paper?

Encrypt it with a BIP39 passphrase.
Laminate it.
Make a copy.

Not good enough?

How about $100 for one that is made out of metal, which is fireproof, waterproof and shockproof?

Not user friendly enough?

How about $110 for hardware wallet that you can just plug into your computer?

Not to mention the multitude of options for software wallets for both your computer and handphone that you can download for FREE.

Not to mention multi-sig options as well.

Recap:
$0 - Paper wallet
$0 - Handphone Software wallet
$0 - Computer Software wallet
$100 - Actual Hard wallet
$110 - Hardware wallet

I'm legit annoyed by this bullshit. 

Now, do you want to get real cancer?

You can buy their "Crypto Edge" guide for $249.


AND GUESS WHAT? THEY WILL TEACH YOU HOW TO STORE CRYPTO IN THEIR GUIDE!

I WONDER IF THE METHOD THAT THEY TEACH IS GOING TO COST 15 TIMES MORE THAN GOLD. HMMMM.

Dafuq.


Jeez.

I guess whatever sells their "guide", right?

Cancer.
Pure Cancer.
Stage 5 Cancer.

Here's to calling out bullshit, especially for the people that should know better.


Keeping it real,

GMGH

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Overstock CEO Gets Bitcoin. Do You?

Here's the article. It comes with a nice 11 minute video interview too as well. Just gonna pull out my favourite bits from the article, because I'm lazy to transcribe (the video is better than the article itself though).



You think that’s a bubble? What do you think that fiat currency you carry around in your purse is?

It’s about time the world switches to real money. Either gold or bitcoin.

The real question is not how high can bitcoin go. The real question is how low can fiat currency go—and at the end of the day all fiat currencies have gone to zero and that’s because they end up with irresponsible money printing.



We have all these currencies since Bretton Woods, fluctuating against each other, and maybe the dollar hasn’t gone to zero against these currencies but all of them have gone down 95% ... versus something that they can’t control like … gold and bitcoin. So bitcoin may be on its way to a million for all we know.


Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Calling it the "Tether Top"

3 hours 20 minutes after my warning about Tether this morning, this happened:


Reddit version here.

Which led to this:


Though this announcement isn't exactly the level of implosion I was expecting, it smells and reeks of a cover up. A "hack" is very reminiscent of the Mt Gox story. As a reminder, Bitfinex got "hacked" in August 2016 and lost 120,000 BTCs. That was valued at $72m back then, but it's worth a whooping $960m now.

I was hoping for something bigger. Like Bitfinex freezing all BTC withdrawals and halting all USDT pairs, or something of that level. Would be nice if Bitconnect can implode together too, drain the swamp in 1 shot. But I guess that's another fantasy for another day.

Anyway the days are long and crypto days pass by even faster. I can totally see the situation getting worse in the near term.

As per my previous post, I advise the following:

1. Do not use Bitfinex.
2. Do not hold any Tethers. If you do, exchange them for something else.
3. Do not keep ANY funds on any exchanges that has USDT parings - they may suffer collateral damage.
4. Familiarize yourself with escape routes - cashing out / stable coins.

Although this doesn't prove that Tethers are worthless, I would say the red flags are everywhere. Proceed with extreme caution.

The BIGGEST risk in cryptos right now

It's not government regulations. (China failed)

It's not a mining revolt. (BCH and B2X failed)

It's not for being called a ponzi, fraud or a scam. (DBS CIO whateva his name is, Dimon, Buffet, etc etc etc)


It is the $600M USD giant white elephant in the middle of the entire freaking room named Tether.

Tether is a crypto representation of 1 USD stored in a Taiwanese bank account. Supposedly. There has been no audit on their assets.

Tether is NOT claimable for actual USD. Their website does not allow you to exchange Tethers for USD.

Tether started out 2017 as a $10M problem. It is now a $674M problem, and growing.

If you do want to know more about this whole Tether conspiracy (it's looking more and more like the obvious reality though), check out this Twitter account and all of his tweets to learn more.

How are Tethers created? Beats me.
How are Tethers redeemed? I have never come across anyone that has actually redeemed it.
Have people tried to redeem Tethers? Yes, many, but no one has successfully done so.

It is extremely likely that these supposedly backed and redeemable coins are actually, in fact, NOT backed by USD and also NOT redeemable for USD.

Whether Bitfinex and Tether blow up today or tomorrow or never, it's anyone's guess.

If crypto has a stablecoin that has enough cross pairs for people to trade into BEFORE the blow-up, I think crypto world will not be rocked so hard.

If crypto does not have a stablecoin, I think we can see a pretty nasty bear market til the death count can be accurately accounted for.

Stablecoin projects like Maker's Sai / Dai and DigixDAO's DGX cannot be needed any sooner.

What am I doing to mitigate the risks?
- No more usage of Bitfinex
- Avoid Tethers like the plague
- Quick trades and cleans sweep of exchange accounts with USDT pairs
- Familiarize and set-up myself to be ready to make use of crypto stablecoins when they launch

I have no idea how it ends, but I think the evidence is clearly pointing that a blow up is inevitable.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

19 Nov 2017 Crypto Thoughts

Just gonna plop out some mental crap that has been clogging up my brain's mempool for a while. Hope anyone picking my thoughts can pick up something interesting.

Bitcoin is a trustless, uncenorable way to transfer payment information and balances.
Ethereum is a trustless, uncenorable way to transfer all types of information, INCLUDING payment information and balances.

Monero is what normal people think Bitcoin is.
Monero is what shady people that use Bitcoin need to actually use instead.

Banning cryptocurrencies because it can be used for money laundering is like banning the internet because terrorists can send each other emails.

People used horses for thousands of years, until the car.
People used paper money for hundreds of years, until cryptocurrency.

Tokens that are securities are one of the easiest and best use cases of blockchain.
Securities (shares, bonds, etc) WILL be tokenized and will be legal.

Token holders may NOT have any legal recourse NOW, but that WILL change with the tokenization and securitization of everything.

Classifying all different types of tokens as the same thing is like classifying all modes of transport as the same thing. Cars and donkeys are different, much like many types of tokens are different from each other.

Once there are clear legal frameworks for tokenized securities, the majority of tokens will be clear-cut, straight-up crypto versions of shares trading on stock markets now. (profit sharing + voting)

Project Ubin mentioned blockchaining bonds and settling payments - clear and straight forward use case.

95% of all crypto will end up being *close to* worthless. Blockchains don't die easily, but their value and usage do.

Market cap is a very very fragile metric. Give me a few thousand dollars and I can move the market cap of some coins by several million dollars.

People betting on alts hoping for it to become the "next Ethereum" are smoking some crazy shit.
Same as the people betting on alts hoping for it to become the "next Bitcoin".
Bitcoin and Ethereum already exists, why do you need the "next" one?
(For clarification, I am referring to overall development and community, not price speculation. There is obviously more profit percentage-wise to be made gambling on small alts.)

Many traders are looking only at upsides and ignore the downsides.

Many traders have never even used or sent crypto on its blockchain - they have only traded it on centralized exchanges

Many traders are going to end up holding extremely heavy bags of quickly becoming worthless alts, using Noble logic - "it has dropped so low, it can't possibly get any lower, can it?".

Many utility-only tokens will end up being worthless.

Many of those projects MUST screw over their token investors and choose to accept ETH as payment in order to survive.

Or else they must partner up with someone that can offer services along the likes of Kyber to instantly accept ETH from users and get it converted to their utility tokens to be used natively. Either way, the value of those utility tokens will be very much muted due to there being no intrinsic value of holding the tokens, since it would be preferable to just purchase the required tokens on the spot, as per demand and usage dictates.

Proof of Stake will likely be the new "proof" model of the future.

That said, Proof of Work will not die easily.

It makes much more sense in 95% of scenarios to just buy the coin instead of mining the coin.

Ethereum's success will be determined by how it reacts to new and objectively more technologically advanced blockchains, and retain and incentivize developer talents, and general adoption of its blockchain (both public and private).

If Ethereum can manage to fend of newer blockchains until sharding goes live successfully, they would have won the decentralized application race for the foreseeable short term future.

Proof of Stake + Sharding will create MASSIVE global FOMO of "investing" in crypto-currencies and could be one of the things that fuels real, mainstream adoption and gets widespread usage.

Cryptocurrencies will spark a "renaissance", where the new generation questions the need, trust, reliability of all 3rd party institutions and roles in both commerce and society. Corruption will be highly scrutinized.

Adoption of crypto will also spark the general public demanding that central banks and government run monetary policy better as parallels with unlimited fiat money vs deflationary cryptos are drawn and understood.

Mass adoption is still extremely far away.
Most people have only heard of Bitcoin. Almost none can name more than 3 other cryptos.
Of those that own cryptos, many are only lightly invested, "testing" out the market.
Of those that own and trade cryptos, many don't even know what their crypto is used for, other than speculation on price.
Institutional money has almost no legitimate way to get exposure into this new "asset class".
General public understanding of crypto is close to zero.
General public WANTING to understand crypto is even closer to zero.

We are STILL in the early adoption phase.
Prices WILL flop around like a fish on land.
People who are now owning the 5% of crypto that survives the next several years of culling, will be the new class of wealthy.

These are just my views on cryptos at this point of time. Lots of things can change on a dime, and I am learning new things every single day.

Crypto life, best life.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Project Ubin Phase 2: MAS and 11 Banks working on Crypto, I shit you not

There will always be disbelievers, but I am not fazed.

Here is the MAS media release regarding open sourcing the Project Ubin Phase 2 findings, and here is the full PDF report.

MAS even has a page for Project Ubin.

Anyway, here are 2 screenshots of things I wanted to point out:



Page 52: "Future phases of Proj Ubin could focus on a decentralized bonds payments system, which could be supported by MAS and the participant banks with execution driven by SGX. This could delivery a more efficient fixed income securities trading and settlement cycle through DLT."

Didn't I say that securities are one of the lowest hanging fruits, along with value transfers?

Questions? What is DLT? Answered here, along with why a national currency will never be issued on a public blockchain, but more likely on a private blockchain compatible with public chain communication.

What's the price of Ethereum today? $328 USD
Last week? $310 USD
Ooo, 1 week 6% gains.

Anyway, I'm already in. I don't need to be sold.

I'm just fanning the flames of FOMO for everyone else.

But sure, continue thinking it's a fraud and a bubble. I don't make any money convincing people to read and learn more about all of this.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Warning: Browser Mining Experimentation

Dear all,

I would like to announce that I am experimenting with browser mining.

What is browser mining?

Well, when you surf around my blog, a "miner" will use up a fraction of your computer's computing power to help calculate some operations.

No worries, I have limited the mining to only 2 threads and only 30%, so if you're running a decent computer, you shouldn't even notice it!

Our course, I am mining cryptocurrency.

For those curious, I am mining Monero (XMR), which is one of the few cryptocurrencies that can still be mined using regular computers, without a huge handicap compared to specialized mining machines or expensive graphic cards. Monero is one of the few cryptocurrencies which I am very bullish about.

It's just a fun experiment for me to try out.

Leave me comments if you notice that the site is laggy when you are browsing and I'll try and tweak some settings.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Crypto 11.11 Thoughts

Just a week ago, I wrote a post regarding the Alt-mageddon that was happening at the time - BTC was heading higher into the fork and alt coins were languishing badly. My final conclusion? Alts were cheap, and they should be bought, rather than chasing BTC at all time highs.

One week on, and what do we get? A perfect bottom call, hehe.


Just a sample of 4 of the alts that are quite popular: OMG, PAY, LTC and ETH.

At that point of time, BTC was at 6,800 and now we are back at 6,800 again. I did say "...BTC can easily blow past $7,000 and hit maybe 8k..." and we actually did go all the way up to $7,950.

The call-off of the fork is both a good thing and a bad thing.

Current crypto traders would now all be leaving BTC to go into extremely cheap and depressed alts at extremely oversold levels.

However, at the same time, fresh money (mostly from private hedge funds) that have never bought crypto before and had been waiting for weeks due to the fork uncertainty finally have the "all-clear" sign that the BTC community would not be fractured. This means that the big money would be coming into BTC.

I did mention that big money can ONLY flow into BTC, maybe some ETH and a minimal amount into LTC and an extremely insignificant amount into small alts. Most of them don't have the mandate to go into anything other than these, and even if they do, the markets aren't big enough to absorb big orders yet. Big traditional money is unfortunately still locked out of alts.

Unlike traditional markets where the HFTs run the show, in crypto it is still the whales and liquidity that makes or breaks a market. If I was a whale, which money would be easier to eat? Crypto investors moving into alts at all time lows, or fresh meat jumping onto the BTC wagon?

My take is that the easy money is killing the new BTC boys who are coming in with old rules for old assets. There are no traditional markets with the volatility of cryptos, and that is what you would use to shake out all these people from their positions. Huge spikes on either side will kill off positions by traditional traders, and that is what we saw. Post-fork, there was a BTC 4H candle that had a range of 12%, lol.


That's one way to kill new traders and make a ton of money, haha.

There's also the BCash conspiracy about taking over BTC and whatever. I actually would like to see an attack on BTC to see how resilient it actually is. But this BCH thing feels more like a massive pump and dump, rather than a realistic takeover scenario.

Moving forward, I expect BTC to head lower and shake out a lot of the new people that came in post-7000. I'm prepared to go in at 6200, 5500 and I'll prepare the kitchen sink for 4800. The way that the BTC market is progressing, a 40% drop is like a complete market catastrophe and probably a good drawdown level to consider entering hard - at least, I would be. Hence, the 4800 kitchen sink level.

Of course, BTC could just continue blowing up again. Really, who knows? BTC has been a dip buyer's dream come true, and I honestly suspect that it will stay that way for some time. Risk adverse entry points would be the RSI30 on the daily chart, which has proven to be exceptional entry points. More risky people can consider the same thing, but on the 4H charts.


I have bought on both those entry points, so my BTC purchases are currently in heavy profits.

What about the rest of the market? Ethereum has been grinding the 300 range for the longest time. I'm inclined to believe that the 300 resistance level has actually turned into support now. However, if BTC does get toyed around with, you can be assured that most of the alt markets will drop as well. However, considering the fundamentals of ETH moving forward, I am pretty bullish and I try to aim my accummulation around the 300 levels.

IF, and that's a big if, a few major dapps release on the ETH ecosystem over the next few months, I think that ETH would likely break away from mirroring BTC's up and down days and will instead, finally go off and do its own thing. I think that this is very possible, given the lineup of dapps reaching mainnet launch phase. Upcoming dapps to go live are as follows: Maker, Augur, DigixDao, Melonport and Kyber.

While the stupid money is chasing ICOs and playing chicken with ponzi coins and HYIPs, I believe that the smart position to be in is to wait in some of these extremely promising projects that currently have no hype because they aren't live yet.

For smaller alts, especially the ERC20 ones, I expect their prices to flop around like nobody's business until they hit/miss their own major milestones. For promising projects, a delay of a major milestone could be a great opportunity to accumulate on the negative sentiment, as long as you can strong confidence that they will eventually deliver and it would be good. 

However, I also do think that the cards are lined up that we could see an alt rally that lasts several months. This depends if BTC just generally trends lower, or would be called-off if BTC's price is killed.

Regardless, I feel it's unlikely for legitimate alts to go much lower from these levels.

My base case scenario is for BTC to trend lower and bounce around 6000-7000, for ETH to slowly trend up towards $360, and for the alts to all slowly but surely trend higher. That is the playbook I have right now. But considering how fast the market moves in crypto, I could change my positioning if the situation warrants it.

My advice for long-term crypto investors (3-5 year hold)? Don't buy shitcoins. Long-only strategy. No leverage. You might not make as much money as shitcoiners, but you have massively greater odds of not dying and still coming out good.

This is a pretty "technical" post, with a lot of numbers here and there, which means absolute mambo jambo to most people, but meh, this blog is also a place for me to think outloud.

There are plenty of fundamental reasons for crypto to continue going up and up and up in price, but that's not for this post today. I'm entirely convinced about the future of crypto, but I don't want people to think that there are no risks involved and buying and investing in them would make them rich. If you have problems looking at -2% positions on your stocks, you are gonna shit blood all over yourself when you see your portfolio drop 10%, in an hour. In crypto, scared money don't make money.

Stay safe in the wild wild west. The path to crypto glory is littered with dead bodies of noobs.

Friday, November 10, 2017

EXIT ALL OF THE STOCK MARKETS

It's a crypto meme, but I thought I'd just use it since I've gone full crypto-retard anyway, hue hue.

So I see that now at market ATHs, some markets are showing bad signs, especially with junk bonds leading the way, the usual leading indicator.

I seriously hope that these cracks really lead to what I've been waiting for. Yes, I am a financial asshole.

The stock market is a ridiculous shit show for the last few years that I had been forced to play with. I hated playing it, but there was no other game in town.... that I knew of.

Insane valuations for so many stupid companies. SNAP FREAKING CHAT? TWITTER? GO "CAMERA ON A STIK" PRO? I can't even. It's an insult to my intelligence. The whole US stock market is an entire joke.

Bitcoin is a bubble? Please, look at the damn US stock market and tell me that it ISN'T in a bubble.

Ever since I discovered crypto and realized that I actually have LESS risk with MORE reward in crypto compared to the stock markets, I put my money where my mouth is at and I exited almost all of my stocks, unit trusts and bonds.

And of course, like the brazen young fool that I am, I plowed it all into crypto, and I've no regrets so far.

My past few months of investing in crypto has SIGNIFICANTLY more returns than the rest of my investing career. It's sounds crazy, because it is crazy.

Sure, it could all go poof because it's just magical internet money backed by nothing, right? Lol. 90% of you guys STILL don't get what crypto is, and that's okay. By the time the majority of people finally do get it, or roughly understand it enough to know that its legitimate enough to buy into, I'll already be a full-fledged millionaire. I'm confident by the time I'm 35, easy peasy. It sounds ridiculous even saying things like this, but really you have no idea how freely the money flows in crypto land.

I know so many of my friends who are bankers, yet ALL of them have zero clue about cryptos. It's not that they aren't smart. These people are probably the smartest people I've ever met. It is that they have never even bothered to give it a serious look with all the tulip-bubble mainstream media shit talking.

Don't get me wrong. I don't want people flooding into cryptos without knowing what they are doing. However, what I do want to change is the perception that cryptos are poofy worthless unbacked internet magic money. It saddens me when I hear very intelligent friends I know just write off the whole thing as tulip-bubbles.

Anyway, whatever. I eat the cake I bake. And you don't eat the cake that you don't bake. If cryptos crash, so be it. It's not like I don't know that this is the risk of going into cryptos. But in this short span of a few months, I've already been through 40-80% crashes more than 5 times already. And if you guys know me, you also know that I have freaking big balls of steel and damn stronk (not a typo) hands. I have to attribute my dip buying and holding skills to investing in gold for all these years.

The future for cryptos keeps looking brighter and brighter, and my portfolio along with it.

You guys can never say that I had a good thing that I didn't share.

But seriously, the stock market is looking toppy af. I'd short the shit out of it if I didn't have crypto.

CALLING THE TOP BECAUSE GUESS WHAT? I SOLD ALL MY STOCKS HAH!

Good luck with stocks guys. If you are looking for something less risky (but more volatile) with strong fundamentals, please consider learning more about crypto, lol.

Okay enough trolling. Good night for now.

Monday, November 6, 2017

Gold vs Digital Gold (Bitcoin) Part 2


As a following up from my previous post regarding gold vs bitcoin. Also, the same tweet as the past post.

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Gold vs Digital Gold (Bitcoin)

As someone who has physically owned precious metals for years, I think I am in a pretty good position to talk about precious metals as an investment compared to 95% of other investors who have never touched it before, or only own it through chance / luck through some ETF or unit trust holding.


Also, as someone that owns his own private key on the Bitcoin blockchain and has more than 1 BTC, and have actually made multiple transactions using the blockchain, I also think I am in a pretty good position to talk about Bitcoins compared to 99.8% of people who have never owned a Bitcoin, and probably more than the entire new wave of "investors" who own bitcoins but have actually never used it or made a transaction before.


When I first came across and learnt about bitcoins in 2013, I dismissed it as magical worthless internet money. Even back then, it was frequently compared to gold. The problem about bitcoins back then was that there was no infrastructure and it was all so underground and technical. It was not an easy or friendly thing to get into either.

Now in 2017, after seeing how much the underlying technology has developed and expanded (Ethereum), bitcoin is still going on strong as the world's first truly international, censor-proof and opt-in banking and payment network system.

Bitcoin has legal status in a few countries. Laws and regulations have been passed to consider it a currency, or at least not to regulate or ban it. There are decent levels of merchant adoption, which is growing, along with payment acceptance services for it.

Gold though, largely has its historical record and permanence that grounds its value as a store of wealth. All games in the world use "Gold" at the premier in game currency and even little children can tell you that gold is money. There is something intuitive knowing that you need to grab a pickaxe and head to the mines to get out a mine piece of gold that makes it worth so much.


Bitcoin mining is frequently compared to gold mining and incorrectly (personal opinion) equate that the time and energy exchanged in mining is the base cost of bitcoin. I find this argument extremely weak. Why? If the total bitcoin network was at 1 old desktop sitting in a basement instead of the hundred of thousand of specialized bitcoin mining computers in huge farms across the globe, it STILL produces the same amount of bitcoin. Adding MORE hash rate to mine bitcoin is extremely different from opening several new mines and hiring more miners - you actually get a total output increase in the gold scenario, while the bitcoin scenario yields no increase in output.


Anyway, I think that's a pretty important difference regarding actual gold mining and bitcoin "mining".

The marginal cost of new gold supply is literally the mine with the lowest mining cost. The marginal cost of new bitcoin is.... erm time? Sure, the actual formula has difficulty adjustments every 2016 blocks and stuff like that, but really, more hashing does not equal more bitcoins, which is why I only like to loosely compare bitcoin mining to real mining.

The more important relationship is actually regarding supply. Both gold and bitcoin has a fixed supply. The theoretical maximum supply is the most important thing regarding both gold and bitcoin.

It is important to know that what you own can NEVER EVER be faked, or simply "created" into existence. This makes what you have as a unique piece in this entire set of objects. You can't just print or create more into existence because it'd make the existing things in existence worth less.


And this is exactly the reason why fiat money dies every single iteration of the thousands of iterations that it has tried. As long as the money supply is not fixed, you WILL get bad actors and they WILL f*** things up. All currency dies from hyper inflation. There are no natural exceptions. This has happened in every country, every time. If it hasn't happened to your currency (yet), ask yourself this: what was the currency BEFORE this one? What happened to it? Unless you got "Euro-ed" (probably one of the notable few exceptions in the world), the answer is that your previous currency died due to hyper-inflation.

Fiat currencies dying through hyper-inflation is like people dying from old age. That's just the way it is.

Gold and bitcoin removes the power of anyone to do so by creating (1) a maximum supply and (2) a method to prove the authenticity of the thing in question. In gold, it is through testing. In bitcoin, it is through cryptographic proofs.

While many people, myself included, love the feeling of touching, feeling and holding your precious metals, it is arguably extremely hard to spend, transport and even sell if it eventually comes to it.

Bitcoin on the other hand has no need for transport, can be easily spent without any government or bank being able to stop the payment, and sells extremely easily. Perhaps it's main drawback is that currently fees to transact in bitcoins aren't as cheap as it used to be, and takes a while to complete a transaction (minimum 10 minutes) - 2 things that bitcoin is aiming to fix with its future upgrades.

It's been hard for me to admit it, but I've finally come to terms with it. I do feel that cryptos are likely the way forward, especially in the modern world where having a lump of gold in your safe means close to jackshit, but having access to bitcoins means you have instantly spendable wealth.


To precious metals investors, I'm definitely not saying that precious metals are useless and worthless. But I think that they really need to be evaluated in today's context, especially for their utility.

One very, very interesting crypto-gold project that I am looking at that actually marries the ideas of BOTH crypto and precious metals is DigixDAO. I don't want to say too much because it'll look like its a freaking advertorial for them and obviously I'm not being paid to say any of this. Plus, I care squat if you guys buy it. Buying crypto suggested from an anonymous stranger is no different than going into vans for candy. Anyway, it's a crypto that I own and I support, and it is going to do something pretty interesting with crypto and gold. Their project is in the final stages and I hope that next year I can happily sing praises about it and talk about it more when they actually have a product to talk about. For now, it's just a nifty idea that the curious can go exploring themselves.

I officially own more cryptos than I have precious metals. I have not sold off any precious metals yet, but I can't say that I have not been tempted to, to buy more cryptos.

Thursday, November 2, 2017

My Current Thoughts on the Alt-mageddon

BTC is breaking new all time highs.

Again.

Honestly, it's really chugging along as expected. BTC at $10,000 or even $20,000 really isn't mind blowing for me. I'm just a bit surprised that it is reaching these levels a lot quicker than I anticipated, and also not dragging up the rest of the alt-coin market with it.

Alt-coins are getting thrashed right now. I think it is generally the newbie FOMO of BTC going up with the fork, and everyone is trying to get their "free" forked coins.

Which is silly, since people were selling BTG (the last fork) for 2% gains, while booking 10-30% losses on alts to get that.

The market is really divided into big and small players now. The big players unfortunately can only buy BTC, and perhaps maybe some of the other top market cap coins, but I think for the most part, they have been deploying more and more money into BTC, hence the meteoric recent rise.

While this itself shouldn't cause the alts to crash, it is because of the smaller traders going for the free forked coins narrative.

I personally view this as alt-coins being extremely well-priced now, as people are just fire-selling their alts to get more BTC going into the fork. No big money can get into alts easily - the market volume is thin, and frankly, most of them barely can grasp BTC, they are going to have a hard time analysing the alt markets.

Am I going to chase BTC? No, I won't. I am going to continue buying cheap and depressed alts, especially the ones that I have very high confidence of recovering in the medium term (3-6 months) when they release major fundamental news regarding their projects.

While BTC can easily blow past $7,000 and hit maybe 8k or even 10k while alts bleed, my concern is not my daily average profit. My concern is the profit on the day I cash out, which will be years ahead in the future.

I strongly believe in the technology, community and therefore, long term fundamentals and price of Ethereum moving forward. I also know that Proof of Stake is going to be MASSIVE for Ethereum. My regret in the future will be not hoarding enough ETH when proof of stake goes live.

I have 1 last alt bag to fill up, then I'm gunning for just accummulating ETH, regardless of whatever other opportunities appear. I've been a bit distracted by alts lately, but the opportunities have really been so tasty and hard to ignore. Although I might kick myself for going into alts instead of holding ETH now in the short run, I think it is far more likely that my bets on alts at these prices are going to pay off very handsomely in a few months, and those profits are going to help me get even more ETH!

Anyway, this is just some rambling on my thoughts about the current BTC-alt markets. As with all my investments, I buy low to sell high. Alts are cheap and low now, and I'm buying into them.

As always, if you don't know crypto, it's better to watch and learn, than to play and get burned.

Monday, October 30, 2017

Terminology Clarifications: Blockchain, Distributed Ledgers, Bitcoin and more

I have to admit that I am not the most technical person in the world. I don't know any programming languages and the maximum extent of my computing prowess ended with building my own computer.

However, as I learn and study more about crypto, one of the issues that always crops up is the people referring to WRONG definitions, and therefore their argument is literally wrong, though usually the idea that they are trying to convey is clear if you are willing to give a lot of leeway in the meaning of the specific words.

So anyway, let's get down to business.

Ledger = Database = Record / Table of information

"Ledger technology" is not freaking modern crypto magic. Cavemen wrote ledgers to record how many sheep their neighbours owed them. Ledgers are nothing new. Everyone knows how to make and read a ledger, and everyone has multiple ledgers of different things.

Ledgers are really no different from databases. It is just a set of recorded data. Nothing special, nothing unique.

"Distributed Ledger Technology" (DLT)

Distributed Ledger Technology is also NOT blockchain. A lot of people equate DLT to block. DLT IS NOT BLOCKCHAIN. Nothing about blocks and chains here.

Distributed ledgers is a technological improvement, but a very specific one - multiple copies of a ledger are updated independently.

The main benefit? You have redundancy, which means that taking down or manipulating a single copy of the ledger is futile, because there are still multiple copies of the "real" ledger available, and they continue updating to the "true" picture.

Blockchain

This is the term that confuses people a lot and gets wrongly used the most.

A blockchain is simply a chain of blocks. Every new block is able to PROVE that it is linked to the block before it, and that block and prove the link to the block before it, and so on.

This means that a chain can prove that all transactions from the start of its existence until now complies with a certain set of rules and that the data flow and update of changes is uni-directional - only happening in the future.

This is extremely important, because this means all previous transactions are set in stone and can never be manipulated. Changing any transaction, such as editing the value, changing the destination or even removing the transaction, would be detectable and future blocks will recognize that a change has occurred - and will reject that change.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin uses both blockchain AND distributed ledger technology to record down transfer of payments.

This is why bitcoin "technology" and is so powerful. It merges 2 very important technologies together.

No previous transaction can ever be changed - it is final.
Any tampering will the previous transactions will be rejected - manipulation is not possible.
Multiple copies of the ledger makes it impossible to manipulate all the ledgers.

Summary

I still get slightly annoyed when people discuss technicalities but still fumble with public blockchains (bitcoin, ethereum), private blockchains, public and private databases, distributed ledgers, tokens and currency.

Just to be clear, because some people have freaking ridiculous notions of what is possible and impossible - no large / serious nation that understands blockchain will ever issue their own national currency on a public blockchain. Never.

Someone may be appointed to act as custodian or facilitate the private-public cross-chain swap, but it would never be fully on a public blockchain.

Most likely a government would reserve themselves the ability to pre-mine and generate as many tokens as they want, and they would then issue those digital fiat equivalents with a 1:1 ratio with actual circulating currency. As mentioned, anyone that wants to trade such currency of a public blockchain would require a cross-chain swap, or a custodian to facilitate the issuance / guarantee of the tokens convertibility. Of course, if a government body is appointed to do this, it can be low/no cost because it would be non-profit or even subsidized. However, a private body could do this as well and charge a service for it. However, trustless cross-chain swaps between public and private chains could solve this in the near future, so I think there would be no third party required.

Looking at the state of things and how quickly things are being developed, I honestly would not be surprised to see a digital fiat equivalent (DFE) issued by a country within the next few years, even if it is initially not widely used.

Friday, October 27, 2017

What If I Had Invested In Bitcoin For The Past 7 Years

I'm sorry Mr 15HWW, I just saw your posts on the STI and Berkshire and I just had to do this, ehehe!

BTC price data is pulled from here, and I just followed his format, with additional columns for my calculations.

Assumptions:

1. SGD is converted to USD to purchase BTC

2. Transaction Fees include conversion, remittance, deposit fees, large spreads and slippage

3. Initial Fees are a WHOOPING 30%, due to what I think was a very illiquid market initially

4. I gradually adjust fees to be lower to take into account the better market infrastructure

5. My final number of 5% for transaction fees is STILL ridiculously high. I am paying closer to 1% now.

6. I got Gox-ed (lost all my bitcoins during the Mt Gox hacking of Q1 2014)

With those very very heavy penalties (getting Goxed) and conservative assumptions (super expensive fees), here are the results:


The pink highlights are the bitcoins that would have been lost because of the exchange hacking.

So, with $350,000 being deployed every quarter with $12,500, the portfolio would have ended at $2,148,954. If my math isn't wrong, with only about half the time (Q2 2014 onwards), my IRR would have been 51%.

If I hadn't lost my BTCs in the Mt Gox hacking incident (I think most people did though..), the portfolio final value would instead be $315,962,750. If I didn't get Gox-ed and safely kept my BTCs throughout the years, my IRR would have been 252%.

My math regarding the IRR might be wrong though. I'm not really bothering too much. Just know that the returns would have been YUUUGGEEE.

Of course, in retrospect it is easy to see what would have been the best way to have invested in the market.

Anyone crazy and brave enough to have bought huge amounts of bitcoins in the early days when the technology was still developing and still unstable, should and have been handsomely rewarded for taking such risks with something that could very well be nothing. In my opinion, those bitcoin millionaires all deserve it.

Sometimes I wish I had the balls, foresight and understanding to have invested heavily into crypto years ago. I was playing around with mining bitcoins in 2013, but my conclusion was that if its ONLY use is a digital store of value, it is not going to work out. The paradigm shift that blockchain tech is not necessarily only just for money (bitcoin as money is an extremely narrow usage of blockchain technology) is what made me come back to the crypto space and convert myself to a strong believer after finding out more.

The true main point that I am trying to make here isn't that you should invest in bitcoins or other cryptos - NO, THIS IS NOT THE POINT I AM TRYING TO MAKE.

Instead, I think the better learning point here is that as long as you invest in fundamentally sound assets for the long term, you should be making decent returns.

I'm sure a lot of people are gonna be pissed reading this post.

Ponzi.
Bubble.
Fraud.

Magic internet money.


Lol.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

WTF are Smart Contracts and why "Bitcoin" will be huge

I'm always slightly annoyed by the ignorance that all cryptos are lumped together and labelled "bitcoins".

Bitcoin is the first application of distributed ledger technology (DLT) which uses blockchain technology and decentralized distribution principles.

Bitcoin is NOT blockchain.
Blockchain is NOT distributed ledgers.

Bitcoin also is not able to handle smart contracts natively (requires RSK or oracles if I am not wrong). But Ethereum can. There is a recent burst of development of oracles - both centralized and decentralized ones - and their interaction with smart contracts, which are giving rise to more and more ways for external data of state confirmation to enter the blockchain and execute smart contracts. This means that the execution clauses are getting more broad and more easy to coded for execution. And this is a huge leap forward technologically.

The infographic below is an EXTREMELY good primer on what are smart contracts and why they are useful, beneficial and valuable.

Maybe before you read the infographic, let me share this youtube video to show a real use-case application of smart contracts to give you an example for you to reference to:




Three quarters down there is a section called "Another level of complexity".

Bitcoin ONLY operates on the 1st and most basic level.
Ethereum currently operates from the 1st all the way to the 5th level.

The 6th level of DAOs are currently being developed and the first DAO should be launched sometime around the end of this year, or early 2018.

I've long believed that "middle men" will be put out of businesses just simply due to the progress of technology. The power and rise of blockchain makes me even more confident of that happening, and faster too. Property agents and insurance brokers are already slowly showing their way out of the door. Many roles, companies and even industries that rely on being a third party are going to be radically disrupted, to either the point of obsoletion, or be reduced to handle very niche circumstances.

One of the main reasons why I strongly believe that Ethereum will be significantly more valuable than Bitcoin is because of smart contracts, alongside decentralized applications and other decentralized ideas.

Whether I can convince you that the insane technological leaps of blockchain tech is a game changer or not, this train is already steaming full speed ahead. I'm on the train already. Waving at you.

Bye bye.

Monday, October 23, 2017

GMGH Crypto Blackbox Investing (Final)

As mentioned on 8 Aug, I have been doing something called Blackbox investing.

As a refresher what that is all about:
I will not be proving my investment capital
I will not be naming the actual investments
I will not be proving the returns from those invesments
I could make making up the entire thing and you wouldn't know

However, this will be the last update.

Why?

No, I am not losing money, hehe.

1) The bitcoin fork(s) are coming and I need to pull back my BTCs to manage the fork process
2) I am planning to inject more capital into my funds a
nd do some rebalancing

Both of this means that it would be hard for me to continue reporting.

Here are the final updates:


For the past few week, everything went along pretty well, except for an itchy hand mistake I made with my "Steady Turtle" fund. I had thought that BTC was going to bounce off resistance at $4800, so I hedged out my position. Within a few days, it had broke past $5000 and was surging like crazy! I got back in at $5300. That itchy mistake cost me 10% of lost! Overall, it is still up almost 50% in less than 3 months though.

In fact, all my funds have done well. They have all increased in both crypto and in SGD value.


As mentioned, I am not closing these funds. I am just temporarily shutting them down to deal with the BTC forking, after which I will shuffle around my capital and re-allocate.

My funds have been working out very well for me. If I had split my funds evenly, I would be up almost 100% over the past 3 months!

Profit from this blackbox investing experiment over for about the past 3 months? $8327.08 SGD


As mentioned in my last post, this is definitely not my entire portfolio.

I expect a lot of good developments to happen to crypto (especially my portfolio) over the next couple of months.

At the rate I am going, I'm leapfrogging ahead in "investment years" because of all these outsized returns that I am getting. Hopefully by mid 2018 I will be able to report big gains and be a bit more comfortable sharing values of my returns then.

For now, just enjoy my crypto posts from time to time! Remember, if you don't know what you are doing, PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DO NOT BUY CRYPTO.

GMGH x PennyWise (Crypto Hardware Wallets)

I understand that it is pretty hard to find information locally, especially since the crypto community is so small, and Singapore is so small too. Since I started my crypto journey, I've joined a local telegram group that talks about crypto and I got to know Jun Yi, the guy behind PennyWise, a local seller of hardware wallets.

I met up with him on one occasion to do a face-to-face deal because I had friends desperate to get their hands on a hardware wallet immediately and he happened to have some in stock. Quick deal, wasn't even 30 seconds!

I'm certain that most of the hardware wallets that the crypto community here is using today has passed through Jun Yi to get into their hands. I'm quite thankful that although crypto is so niche, we have our own local supplier here in SG!

Jun Yi has also written two very good articles on Gemini funding and Gemini withdrawing, which I strongly urge you guys to take a look, rather than emailing me for help. I do what I can, but I'm not Gemini / DBS support! 

Anyway, I have good news to share. I have partnered up with PennyWise to offer readers a very huge steep discount of ONE WHOLE DOLLAR if you key in the "gotmoneygothoney" discount code when checking out your cart.

Sure, it isn't much. But free money, how to complain right? 

As a quick and easy rule of thumb on whether you need to get a hardware wallet:

$0 - $100: exchange wallet without private keys
$100 - $1000: desktop / mobile wallet with private keys
$1000 ++: hardware wallet where you don't even know your private keys

Personally, I've been using the Ledger Nano S to store my crypto. I have no complaints so far. Compared to the Trezor, it seems that the team behind Ledger is more pro-active, especially in adding support for smaller currencies.

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Bitcoin broke $6000 and $100,000,000,000 Market Cap

Source: Marketwatch, CNBC, Coinmarketcap

Okay back to the usual MSM bullshit of cryptocurrencies being a bubble, fraud, scams and ponzis.

I mean, no one ACTUALLY makes money from buying any of these "investments", right? /sarc

Friday, October 20, 2017

EZ Crypto Portfolio

Since I've gone full crypto a while ago, I get plenty of questions regarding investing into cryptos.

Honestly, I think that it is a very, very complicated art. It requires a lot of technical understanding and experience to make better-than-average calls on most of the niche and specialized cryptos.

However, that doesn't mean that if you don't understand it, you can't make money from it.

Take for example the ridiculous US stock market and its insane valuations. Can it go up? Yup. Can you explain why? Nope.

For anyone daring enough to venture into cryptos without first gaining a deeper understanding to the technology begin it and the tons of factors affecting it, I would strong caution them to AVOID alternative coins.

Just buying and holding bitcoins and ethereum would be a simple and easy way for most people to get exposure into crypto without taking on the multitudes of additional risks that are present in smaller crypto that these stalwarts no longer have, or have extremely low risks of suffering from.

I almost like to think of BTC/ETH as being bonds and stocks. Depending on your risk tolerance, you can adjust accordingly.

I'm 100% positive that just a simple portfolio of 50% BTC and 50% ETH will outperform the global stock market and the local stock markets. While there might be volatility, I would expect the mid term (3-5 year) returns to be exceedingly positive.

Let's run an example starting today, shall we?

Assume $10,000 SGD initial capital, USDSGD rate of 1.3600 and frictionless costs, let's start tracking.

Portfolio 1 would be the $SPY, or the S&P 500 ETF. At 255.79 USD, we can get a total of 28.746 units.

Portfolio 2 would be the $ES3, or the STI ETF at 3.38 SGD, we can get a total of 2958.580 units.

Portfolio 3 would be a simple 50/50 split BTC ETH at 5654 USD and 307.50 USD respectively for a total of 0.6502 BTC and 11.956 ETH.

Portfolio 4 (my personal pick), is a skewed 25/75 split of BTC ETH. With the same values, we can get 0.3251 BTC and 17.934 ETH.

Let me give a short primer on my crypto picks.

BTC is the big daddy of all crypto. It has the biggest and best brand name and pretty much everyone has heard of it before, though they might not actually know what it is. It is the one in all the headlines, but most importantly it is the GATEWAY crypto and all other crypto that do not trade directly with fiat will always trade with a price against BTC. This means that it is gets propped up by both fiat inflows and alternative outflows.

ETH in a very simplistic description, an upgraded and programmable BTC. It's faster, cheaper to transact and has many more applications than just simple value transfer. ETH has a large enough userbase as well as developers. I believe that it is a clear and easy pick to succeed. It has the perfect balance of significantly better technology than BTC, and also the community of users and developers to support it and push it forward.

I personally believe that ETH will take over and replace BTC within the next 2 years, especially as the usefulness and applications of ETH expands with all the development surrounding it - both on a protocol basis and dapps being built on top of it. Therefore, I have assigned a larger weight to it. I have done the same in my own actual personal portfolio.

Either way, my personal belief is that cryptos at this stage of time will be massively outperforming the traditional stock market and I have put my money where my mouth is at. I strongly do not suggest anyone to enter without knowing what they are doing. Instead, just monitor this simulated portfolio along with me and we can see how things go!

Additional note: Obviously I'm not providing back tests because it is PAINFULLY obvious (oh, so much regret) that either crypto portfolio would have massively outperformed the traditional ones. Many people believe that cryptos are in a massive bubble and its a giant ponzi scheme / fraud that will be worth nothing... soon. We'll just see about that.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Can Bitcoin be considered a Good Investment?

I have to admit, since I've gone full crypto-tard, I've been spending less and less time reading about the stock market and following local blogs. I've been a zombie for the last few months devouring and learning about the crypto-markets like crazy.

However, I saw these posts by B from 3Fs and Uncle CW8888 about what is a good investment and I'd thought I'd throw in my 2 cents on a particular "investment asset" that people are talking about these days, and one which I consider myself to be more familiar with than 99% of the population.

The basics

No, not the basics of bitcoin. But the basics of what I consider to be a good investment. A good investment has only simple quality in my opinion:

Future value of investment (and all its payouts / divdends) will be higher than current value

Some people are yield focused. Some people are capital gains focused. I'm into total returns. I do have a preference for yield though, but in all honesty, I rather higher total returns.

Therefore are collectible stamps an investment? Gold, silver? Pokemon cards? Autographs of famous people? They have no cashflow. But yes, they are investments. If you don't think so, you're a yield-tard. Take off your bias glasses and admit that though it might not be YOUR most comfortable style of investing, it is a legit investment.

Why Bitcoin

Is Bitcoin a ponzi? No.
Is the value of Bitcoin a ponzi? Maybe.

Bitcoin does not need more and more money pumping into it to stay alive and continue existing. Bitcoin exists, regardless of the value of each coin. It has no idea what it is worth. It just exists.

The value of bitcoins is another thing though. And it keeps going higher and higher and higher. Why?

Bitcoin cannot be tainted or manipulated.

This means that no single authority can suddenly create more bitcoins out of thin air. When people talk about bitcoins, they like to use "scarcity" to justify it's value. I might be disagreeing on technical definition, but to me the value of bitcoins comes from the fact that NO ONE can add more bitcoins into the system that what all users have already agreed on.

This means no QE. No money printing. No magical inflation. None of all that governmental interventionist crap. It is what it is, and no single user can overrule the fundamental rules of bitcoin. The only way to change this is to get the majority of stakeholders to agree to a change. And as stakeholders, you can be rest assured that they will only agree to changes to enrich themselves, NOT to dilute their holdings and end up with less value.

Bitcoin is not governed by governments, officials, central banks, or all these people who have no repercussions or punishment if they screw up with their experimental policies.

Bitcoin is governed by users and therefore everyone is forced to play by the same rules. No special surprises. Level playing field.

Bitcoin is permissionless and unstoppable

You do not need to apply for a bitcoin account.
You do not need to pay a minimum sum to open a bitcoin account.
You do not need to get security clearance or pass some KYC to open a bitcoin account.
You do not need permission to send money.
You do not need to declare when your value transfer is above a certain limit.
You do not need to ask questions when you receive money.
You do not need to justify from whom you received from.
You do not need to get permission to close your account and transfer away all your money.
No one can prevent you from making a transaction.
No one can prevent you from receiving a transaction.
No one needs to know your real identity to make a transaction.
Transactions takes within minutes to successfully be completed.
Transaction fees can cost just cents or dollars.

Is there a value to having a system of value transfer that is permissionless and unstoppable? I think that there is.

My thesis

The world is riddled with plenty of bad currency. It's a rotting and failing system that is going to collapse on its own weight. The idea of honest money is not some crazy and insane notion. It is what we used to have, before fractional banking and phony economics became the permanent feature of modern finance.

Bitcoin WILL be a global currency. Not only that, but it can also be a transitional currency for failing currencies with no backup plan (Venezuela is a key case study of this). A currency that no government can stop, control or manipulate. A currency where owners of it need not worry about hyper inflation or money printing. Along with it, it is also a global payment system with no third party, and all the benefits of peer to peer transactions.

There is value being both a currency and payment system that cannot be tampered with, that is true and honest, for every user, transmitting whether they are transmitting $10 or $10,000,000.

Ending note

While I am a strong believer of Bitcoin, I believe that a few other cryptos offer EVEN more compelling investment cases. I do own some bitcoin, but it is a very, very, very small portion of my portfolio.

Friday, October 13, 2017

Bitcoin is a Fraud and is in a Bubble

Just tweets with no comments.



Merely stating facts.

Bitcoin "Reverse" Crashing

Remember last month how everyone was saying that the sky is falling because China banned crypto exchanges?

The markets had a pretty good -40% correction. Plenty of people were telling me to exit the crypto markets. Lol. I did not listen to them. I doubled down and went in EVEN deeper.

Price peak before the 40% crash? $4980
Price at the bottom of the crash? $2975 (please see this post where I called $3000 ehehe)
Price right now, at 1.38am? $5276

Yup, bitcoin is back to new all time highs. (I'd reckon we're probably a bit lower now, but thus is the nature of cryptos)

Not saying I'm a genius or what. But everyone's reaction to last month's volatility and fear of cryptos is EXACTLY why people like me can make money. Strong hands + big balls. A very dangerous recipe if you're holding onto fundamentally worthless assets. However, I do not believe that is the case for me.

While I am personally skeptical of Bitcoins being adopted as the main crypto of the future (because of fees and scabability issues) and for it to hit the crazy high valuations that a lot of bitcoin maximalists are calling for, I am still a true-believer of cryptos in the long run. That said, I still do believe that bitcoin will continue to grow in valuations, though I think other cryptos have more growth potential, and a handful have the potential to dethrone bitcoin as the largest crypto.

I will now try to refrain from saying cryptocurrencies, because not all crypto are currencies.

On my radar now is Ethereum which has been chilling out at the $300 USD levels for a bit now.

It has it's Byzantium hardfork upgrade, the upcoming DevCon3 and tons of dapps on its network just waiting on the upgrade before pushing out the releases of their projects. All of these should be extremely price positive for Ethereum. I predict a takeover of Bitcoin's marketcap by the end of 2018.

My first BTC I bought was $2574. Today it is $5276. I wonder what it is going to be at the end of the year? A lot higher than now, I'd bet (literally, with my money).

The amount of people discovering, learning and finally understanding the insane potential of blockchain technology is growing every day. While news of bitcoin hitting new all time highs feeds into the overall hype and will send in a lot of new sheep into the crypto world to fill up the slaughterhouses, it isn't all bad. The news will also allow some people to discover and be mindblown by the world of crypto.

Again, as a PSA and friendly reminder, cryptos are risky and dangerous af. If you have no idea what you're doing, it's best just to stick to whatever you know. Buying into something you don't know is the fastest way to lose your money.

You're always welcome to drop in and check up on me to see if I've become a bankrupt or a millionaire.