Wednesday, July 5, 2017

[SGX Portfolio] Sayonara Croesus Retail Trust and thanks for 75.5% Gains


Wa, how come I totally missed this big news? I only realized when I saw my portfolio value go boomz and read the post by AK.

Quick summary:
- Offer for CRT at $1.17
- CRT holders will also get approx $0.0406 dividends
- Offer price is 23% over NAV
- Yield drops to 6.8%

If you want the info, you can read yourself. The long one, the short one and the one with pictures. You know me, my brain small small so I read the picture picture one.

So, what do I think? I guess I'm in favour of selling. Blackrock can happily pay me a premium to take this hot potato off my hand (Of course, since SCB is my custodian, I'm not gonna be doing anything about it). I'm slightly on the fence since it has been a pretty good investment so far, but then again I think that letting go in these circumstances are okay as well. I am extremely pessimistic about Japan. I love travelling in Japan, I like anime and Japanese food (maybe Japanese girls too HEHE), but I think that they are on a very clear and adamant path on financial suicide.

Don't get me wrong. I love Croesus. It was the very first stock that I bought, all the way back in Mar 2014. Almost 3.25 years ago! I bought it at $0.875, I held on through the bumpy times. While I was very tempted to sell off Croesus in May 2015 after prices had recovered a bit, I decided not to and I was "rewarded" at the end of the year with Croesus rights and subsequently applied for them in excess and managed to pushed down my average investment price to just $0.787 per share.

Throughout my time as an investor in REITs, I always felt that generally most people were VERY adverse to overseas REITs. Hence, solid (in my opinion) names like Croesus, First, Lippo Malls, Saizen and Religare were all shunned as "risky" investments until recently. I felt otherwise, therefore I had invested in these companies at those prices. (Full after-action review of my Saizen play with 40.4% profits)

Offer Price = $1.17
Dividends + Final Divideds: $0.1789 + $0.0406 = $0.2195
Average Purchase Price: $0.787

Captital gains = 48.7%
Income gains = 27.9%
Total returns = 75.5%

Based on 3 years and 3 months as of now, I'm looking at annualized returns of 18.9%. That's not too shabby in my opinion. If we take by year end 2017 as the figure, then it's 16.2%, which is still pretty dope.

I'm probably not gonna do anything with Croesus and just wait for the offer to go through (and I do think that it will go through). However, if I am able to sell above $1.22 for whatever strange reason the market decides to go there, I'd sell off my stake on the exchange.

It's been a fun ride Croesus. I guess it's back to the drawing board to look for opportunities again.

Mind you, there aren't many. I've been doing a lot more selling than buying these days. The ones that I've recently gone into are Singpost and SPH. Fugly might be an understatement to describe these counters, especially SPH.

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