Sunday, December 10, 2017

I'm back from my break! Bitcoin Futures thoughts

It was a short break, just a week, but I managed to get a lot of things done! I hope that I got quite a bit of my life organized now and that the rest of 2017 and 2018 would be quite smooth sailing for me!

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Lol when I left BTC was at $11,000 and it felt kind of giddy to me.

Now we're sitting around $15,000, but not before peaking at $17,000 - $20,000 depending on which exchange you are taking the price reference from.

Now that $11,000 is starting to look CHEAP, haha.

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One of the things that pulled me back from my blog break is regarding the release of Bitcoin futures, which I believe starts tomorrow.

If I was super rich, I would have been buying up tons of actual BTC over multiple exchanges for the past week(s) or so leading into futures trading. It would help me with 2 things: (1) accumulating actual BTCs and (2) pumping up the price.

Why would I want to accumulate BTCs? Well, it's so that I can open short positions on BTC on the futures, and then dump the actual BTCs across exchanges to drive the price down.

Why would I want to pump the price going into futures trading? I would want the price to be screaming OVERBOUGHT on pretty much every single technical indicator that I can think off, so when I dump BTCs, it would seem not only rational that it is happening, but also convince people that price is overbought and would be heading lower. This would lead to a cascading effect that would lower price even more.

And a lower price leads to more profit on my futures short.

Anyway, that's just how I would do it, but let's see if anyone actually does do that.

On the flip side, that is actually the obvious playbook. Almost too obvious that I don't think it would actually happen. Or maybe I am really thinking just the right amount of steps in front of everybody.

A lot, a lot of pent up demand is waiting for futures so that they can get exposure into crypto. How the price action pans out will determine how quickly crypto futures for other assets start arriving, and how it would affect the prices of those cryptos.

Needless to say, BTC benefiting positively from futures would be huge for other top cryptos like ETH and LTC and would pump both their prices while accelerating the time it takes for them to get their own futures.

TIn my opinion, the best playbook would be just neutral going into the BTC futures, then just position yourself correctly when ETH futures finally come along. I can honestly see it going either way.

But gun to my head if I had to make a decision - my gut tells me that BTC would be sold into futures trading and we would have an obvious, but very brief period of huge whale accumulation taking up their initial long positions, before they finally release the downwards pressure and let it skyrocket with them now comfortably on board.

But hey, who knows what is gonna happen? I'm a simple man with a small monkey brain.

Price go up, I clap.
Price go down, I buy.

See, life can be easy.

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Things to do by year end:

Post giving week update
Tidy up and publish A LOT of my drafts on crypto (before they get updated!)
Do a post with a list of my favourite 2017 crypto posts
Prepare to expose myself by sharing my crypto profits (!!!)

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