Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Mr. Been "Busy"

Unfortunately, I am not a full-time blogger who gets paid to write content, so yes I am "busy".

Y'all know that I do blog and share and create content for free right? Sorry if I don't meet your daily SGAG content expectations.

Anyway, for the people who are insatiably hungry to hear me drivel on about crypto nonsense, you can find me on Twitter, because even though I am busy, I've one eye on Twitter just to know roughly what's the biggest things going on in crypto.

I'm finding Twitter to be a better platform for me actually, because I can kill 2 birds in 1 stone by educating myself and catching up on the news while concurrently throwing out my thoughts and making specific comments to certain information by commenting on retweets.

I follow nearly 700+ crypto accounts and I retweet the most relevant and interesting (and hopefully correct) tidbits of information that I come across.

I don't block people so I can listen to the full spectrum of nonsense in the space (preventing echo bubbles bias), so I think I provide decent crypto content curation and personal commentary if that's what you're looking for.

Some of you might already know (and some of you have talked to me there already!), but I also frequent Discords of the crypto projects that I am following very closely. At the moment I'm in the Synthetix discord a lot, discussing stablecoin cryptoeconomics and the landscape. As I've said before, stablecoins is one of the most interesting niches of crypto for me. Anyway, feel free to message me if you see me on Discord, but of course also be careful in case of impersonators.

Friday, November 9, 2018

Woops still busy

Been busy busy busy these days.

I know some people might be disappointed that I've been putting off posting on my blog for a while, but ever since I started using Twitter, I've been having less motivation to post on the blog simply because of how easy it is to tweet as opposed to blogging.

At least with Twitter I can fire off a random thought and just be done with it. Blogging requires a lot more time and effort, and unfortunately I'm very short on time as a resource.

How do people complain that their life is boring and they don't know what to do? I wouldn't mind to buy a few extra hours each day from those bums! If only time could work that way, haha.

The main reason why I've been busy? Making money.

While I blog mainly to straighten out my thoughts and share things I've come across, sadly, it does not pay the bills. My ad revenue is disappearing. Blame it on my switch to crypto content. Blame it on my recent slowdown in posts (though the ad revenue has been dropping from earlier this year already). But heh I still donate all my Adsense revenue to charity anyway.

On the other hand, I'm engaged in a few side projects that will hopefully net me very handsome gains in the near future.

Making money > Blogging to stay relevant

I've quite come to terms that I'm not going to change the mindset of a lot of people when it comes to crypto. A crazy blogger on the internet can only do so much.

You need things like banks, large MNCs and governments to get involved for things to change...

Wait. What?

You telling me that they are already getting involved? (Source 1, Source 2, Source 3)

Oh well, that's all the better for me then. Hehe.

While I'm still committed to this blog, I must admit that it has been knocked down several places from my priority list.

So quick wrap up for the top 2 questions in your head right now.

Q1: How's my crypto portfolio doing?
A1: Single digit percentage loss.

Q2: What's your Twitter.
A2: Here you go.

Okay, that's all folks. Tweet me or DM me on Twitter, I'll almost definitely respond!

Maybe more content in Dec.

Or maybe not, lol.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Hey Guys

Welcome to the bear market!

Crypto is down between 70-90% from all time highs. I just checked, I'm still only single digit % down. Not too bad.

I'm sure stocks aren't going to tank that badly, so you can get through it!

Also, I promise I'll start posting more in November. I'm not (completely) rekt, I'm just busy!

Monday, October 1, 2018

The Useless-ness of Utility Tokens

Interesting new position and legal stance from the Iconomi team.

ICN has always been useless
ICN will seize to exist but can be converted to either actual security tokens, or for ETH

Interesting trade opportunity:
They are committed to buy each ICN at 0.0019 ETH, which is higher than the current market rate of 0.0017 ETH.

If you think that they will actually go through with it, you've got yourself an 11% profit trading strategy.

As I've mentioned before, a lot of "utility tokens" are useless and worthless. I see a lot more people cycling into very risky coins under the rationale that "even shit coins will pump eventually". Nothing wrong with hating the assets and just taking it as a trade, but know when enough is enough and cut losses if you have to. If there are no fundamental reasons for a future recovery, you're playing a very dangerous game of musical chairs.

Good luck out there. Crypto might be depressed right now, but it's doing wonders for the purging and cleansing.

Friday, September 28, 2018

Austrian Gov to issue $1.3b of bonds on ETH public blockchain

Been extremely busy lately, haven't had enough time to keep up with the markets, let alone blog about them.

Things should lighten up for me soon. You can probably expect me to push out content in late Oct and start finalizing and posting my 100+ drafts entries.

Anyway, interesting news, just wanted to share this tidbit.

The Austrian government will be issuing out 1.15b EUR of bonds over the public Ethereum blockchain.

Source 1
Source 2
German Source

That's right. The PUBLIC chain. The chain that me (and maybe you) holding ETH is part of.

Obviously, this is of no surprise if you read the Nov 17 Project Ubin piece I wrote, crypto securities are one of the lowest hanging fruit to take.

In May 18 I was talking about how crypto securities will be YUGE.

Later in July 18 I followed up with a bit more bullish developments on crypto securities.

Securities being packaged as crypto should not be a surprise. It's blindingly obvious. It's an extremely logical step forward, and the step that many people are taking, planning to take, and will take.

What is actually more interesting is the fact that the issues will be done on the PUBLIC Ethereum blockchain.

Why is this important?

I wrote a post why "blockchain" in itself is not a bullish factor for crypto investors, since "blockchain" does NOT require any cryptocurrency to be used.

A lot of extremely stupid people still get things mixed up and don't bother to learn the difference. Meh.

I don't care as long as I make money. My job isn't an educator. My job is a blogger to write about my experience and views. If you can learn from my sharing, that's fantastic. If not, oh well. Can't save the world, can I?

This bear market is tough, but remember, the only number that matters is on the day you decide to cash out.

Friday, September 21, 2018

The Australian Property Bubble

First, just watch these 3 videos.

The Australian property market is crazy. I talked about it in 2015.

The first 2 videos give you an on the ground look on what is happening.

The 3rd video shows you the viewpoint from an investor who is thinking of shorting the market.

It's an excellent case study of a housing bubble and I am eager to see how this plays out.

It has been my view that the Australian and Canadian property markets are crazily overvalued and due to a housing crisis. Perhaps that could set up other markets for something similar. Singapore private property prices are a joke.

Anyway, just something that I've been recently intrigued about.

Monday, September 17, 2018

Value Investing Case Study: Does it apply to Crypto?

For some reason, I managed to stumble upon this article by Dr Wealth that was written back in Feb 2018 regarding his LTC trade.

Simple TLDR is that the NAV was $1.63, but was trading at $0.60. Dr Wealth had quite high confidence in the integrity of the underlying assets, since they were largely in (1) investment properties that are yielding good rental, (2) fixed deposits and (3) cash and bank balances. These kind of assets do not need to be marked down deeply when considering their salvage value.

7 months later, buyout offer with a 54% return from entry.

Fantastic trade.

This reminded me very much of my Saizen REIT trade which saw me realize a total gain (dividends + gain) of 40.4% over about 1.5 years. I consider it as one of my early masterpieces because of just how sure I was that all the evidence is pointing towards good future gains. Yes, I had strong evidence.

Now, buying assets at a discount to NAV is a pretty good strategy if it satisfies some criteria:
1) there should be enough upside premium to be earned after conservatively marking down assets
2) there is a reasonably good chance that you as an owner can eventually realize this premium

Question. Does this apply to crypto?

Answer: Largely, no, it does not apply.

Back in December 2017, I was very bullish on DGD that I happily shared my pick after doing months of in depth research. I had a rather straightforward P/NAV value investing thesis on DGD. Now comes February and DGD starts to boom, and it doesn't stop til even in March and just keeps going higher and higher.

What did I do? I sold a pretty portion pretty much right at the top.

Since then, I've still held onto a fairly decent size of DGD until they started releasing out the governance and I saw first hand how the governance was working out. Spoiler: it's not good.

What we saw was a medium post with a full proposal to withdraw and use $20m of DAO funds that was up for a Carbon Vote.

I'm no math genius so I've used their math, but this means that each DGD is now only backed by ~0.2 ETH per DGD. That's an instant -13% in the "NAV" of DGD in ETH based on this one vote.

Sure, the funds will be spent on "stuff", but everything that the project done so far has been very depressing. Their gold backed token, DGX, is mainly only trading on Kryptono, which based on a very recent reportinflates their actual trading volume by 190X. Yes, that's not 190% (2 times). It's a freaking 190 times. I've eyeballed and compared the data with my own data on exchanges that I was collecting and analyzing just the weak earlier, and the report looks solid and corroborates a lot of my own findings.

What else? Well, circulating supply of DGX is only ~$2.6m, which is hardly enough to generate any fees to add on a DCF valuation. You don't need to trust me, you can verify. In the past half year of operating, they've managed to collect $6500 USD worth of fees. Those fees are to be shared among the token holders. Each holder gets $0.003 per DGD. They need more like $260m DGX in circulation to even have any impact.

Also regarding the governance - the tight supply of just 12/28 accounts controlling 51%/67% of the votes respectively also doesn't bode well with me, considering how they approved to sell ETH at the market bottom. Why not reject it and vote to disburse a smaller amount, like $2-5m? Why not force out a better and more elaborate budget and proposal? These oligarchs are either stupid or have an ulterior agenda. Either way, it does me no good.

So, what did I do? I sold off my remaining DGD positions at 0.22 ETH and 0.19 ETH respectively. Yes, those final positions booked a small loss relative to my entry positions. However, I overall made good profit considering the staggering amount of profit that I booked earlier in late Mar when DGD was peaking.

haters will say I'm lying, but I publicly post a lot of my moves

It's a less than ideal ending, but this is a good case study of why information needs to be constantly assessed to check that your investing thesis still holds true.

Learning points:
1) Few crypto can be valued on a NAV basis, unless they are explicit securities
2) There are no "forever" positions. Be willing to change your mind when circumstances change.
3) You have no idea when strong supporters of a crypto has dumped them (like me)

And regarding that last point, that's the problem with crypto eh? I've highlighted it before:

At the end of the day, I still do my own research, think very hard about the future, and I pull the trigger and make my own decisions on what to buy, what to sell, when and how much.

If you can't be critical on projects, accepting of flaws and open to new ideas, this space will kill you very quickly. Ideas a few months ago which I though were great, I have dumped and I now own zero. **COUGH COUGH KYBER COUGH COUGH**

That's the problem, ain't it? If you follow people to buy stuff, you are definitely buying it later and usually higher than them. And when they exit, you never know.

For people who blindly bought into DGD, just a final heads up that I truly hold zero of it now.

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Last month my savings account interest was 2.48% pa

I push out mostly crypto content these days, but I remember the good ol' days when I talk about squeezing blood from rocks to make your money work for you.

I made a post about the best place to park your money, and though it is a bit outdated, I'm glad to say that the Citibank Maxigain account that I have strongly recommended people to consider is chugging along very well. Based on the interest I received last month, the annualized return is 2.48%.

Even CIMB, who is well-known for usually having one of the best fixed deposit rates in town is only able to offer 1.84% for a 12m tenure in their recent promotion.

And mind you - the Citibank Maxigain is NOT a fixed deposit. It's a savings account. You can withdraw anytime you want.

The interest rate market is FINALLY moving up, after years of ZIRP, post-financial crisis.

The last I heard, housing in Australia has FINALLY overheated and is coming down. What else do you expect from interest-only housing loans? Lol.

In 2016 the housing market was shook a bit by interest rates moving up from zero, along with a lot of cooling measures, but that trend reversed. I was honestly hoping for the housing market to shit itself deep and I can pick up a private property of my own. Oh well. Next time. I just wait to wait, haha.

Now with rates going up, can property prices continue to stay elevated? Can existing property investors increase rents to tenants, can they find tenants, or can they flip the property for a profit?

Next to no one in my generation has a private property and none are even considering. Balance of sale flats seem quite popular.

Sometimes I really wonder who are renting out all these properties, especially the newer condos.

Anyway, that's just my small rant on interest rates and bank deposits.

Look into the Citibank Maxigain account if you're like a flexible but decent yielding place to park your money. I explained a bit more in my older posts. Pretty much everything is still the same and relevant - just that rates are now even higher, and almost all banks have been slow to adjust up their rates. Why pay out customers more money, amirite? Heh.

Monday, September 10, 2018

Guys Im finally losing money in Crypto

Been crazily busy with work, life and of course crypto the past month plus.
Things should start slowing down for me in late Oct or Nov, and hopefully I will be posting a lot more then.

The BTC 2013-2014 bubble pop saw BTC price decline 92%. That's scary. It took 3 years odd to reclaim back those ATHs.

ETH is currently sitting at an approximately 85-86% drawdown.
If we match those 92% drawdowns, we are looking at $110.
(Why would we? Why should we?)

The past month has been particularly brutal. Can you imagine that I've managed to stay abovewater the entire time until just recently? I thought I was doing really well until I got clubbed over the head.

I am fine to share that I have finally sunk below my capital that I've put in. Yup, that's right. Even with all my good ICO flips, long swing trades, short term trading and arbitrage profits to buffer me, along with an average entry that I thought was pretty low, I am finally in losses.

Not trying to hide it.
It is what it is, what more can I say?

That's right, you could actually enter now and you'll have a better average price than me.
But of course you won't. Heh.

There is a lot of concerns and worries about ETH in particular. I am largely unfazed.
I've broken into my warchest and I'm buying the dip.

Yall might think I'm crazy, but let's be real for a moment.

No one cares what's your portfolio IRR on 10 Sep 2018.
And why is that? Because the only value that matters is the day you sell.

Unfortunately for me, my journey involves my portfolio going into the shitter first, before it subsequently (hopefully) takes off. And I'm okay with that.

My eye is on the prize.

I didn't sign up for slow and steady, low risk, low drawdown returns.
That's a rolling fixed deposit.

I knowingly and willingly signed up for this crazy crypto shit.

If it was so easy, we'd all be millionaires, right? Heh. But as always:

No guts, no glory.
No brain, same story.

Stay safe in crypto. If you're uncomfortable doing anything, I suggest you just sit on the sidelines and watch me make a fool of myself.

As always, feel free to counter-trade me and profit from your wisdom that cryptocurrencies will all go to zero. No point having such knowledge and making no money from it, amirite?

Thursday, September 6, 2018

Wew Crypto Reeeeeeeee

Markets are crazy today, lol!

Positions got closed out at 28.7% and 92% profits respectively.

And this is after manually reducing positions and taking profit earlier at 147% and 238%.

Just another day in crypto paradise.

Only trading position left is ETH which is, obviously, underwater at this point of time.

Oh dear me. Whatever will I do?

Just wait lor.


Would you like to counter trade me? You can, here on Bitmex with up to 100x leverage to go long or short! *wink wink*

Sunday, September 2, 2018

3 Crypto Weeks Later...

3 weeks ago I posted that I was buying and leveraging up...

Then, BTC was ~$6500 (my entries were lower).

Today it is $7200.

How's my Bitmex ROE looking?

Looking fantastic, thank you very much. The top 3 are my same positions as my previous post. The last row is my additional position in ETH.

Whoever is the crypto whale that signed up with my Bitmex ref link, bless you and I hope your trades has been going swimmingly well, as mine have.

For everyone else, Bitmex is where you can trade up to 100x your capital that the price of Bitcoin will go up or down. Yes, you can short on Bitmex, up to 100x. That's right, you can bet on Bitcoin going down and make profits from it. Come and bet against me. Crypto is a stupid scam right? Less talk, more action. Step right up, place your bets.

If you think you've got the balls to put your money where your mouth is at, then prove it. I find it a cry and shame to hear people who are self-proclaimed geniuses at spotting bubbles and pricing ponzis, but with no spine to bet what they preach.

I might be an idiot, but at least I'm an idiot with balls.

Saturday, August 18, 2018

More Quick Crypto Updates

Since my last post, crypto tanked - again - and made fresher lows.

A lot of people might have suspected that I have killed myself with crypto tanking so hard like a beech lately.

Unfortunately, I am still alive.

With the markets making crazy moves, I've been busy making moves as well. Talking shit on my blog comes secondary to making money, as many of you would also probably agree. I've so many posts drafted and waiting to be cleaned up before posting, but obviously the market is more important.

This will just be a quick one, but the main gist of it:

I was buying AND leveraging up.

lol if you're bearish, how low do you think it'd go?

my entries

my current unrealised P&L on them

Biggest question on everybody's mind right now: GMGH are you still in profits?

The answer: Yes, I am still in profits.

As I've always said, crypto is a dangerous game to play. If you have no idea what you're doing, you WILL get destroyed.

Oh, also for people that think I'm retarded and would like to counter-trade me, you can do so here at Bitmex where you can go leveraged SHORT up to 100x to trade against me.

If you think Bitcoin is stupid and will go to zero, you should make money from your obvious future foresight. No point being so smart but gaining nothing from that intelligence. Profit from my losses. I dare you. I beg you.

Put your money where your mouth is at.

I have.

Saturday, August 4, 2018

Quick Crypto Musings

- the hype in the space has been mostly cleared imo

- most of the quick flipping degens have either rage quit, or are down at least -50% from capital (stuck, refusing to book a loss)

- BTC and ETH looks great to me (I am contrarian)

- ETH looks much better FA and TA wise

- BTC has the better branding, and will be the 1st port of call for fresh funds (retail and institutional alike)

- my play on the majors is buying ETH to front run the ETH/BTC pump that will eventually come (could be months or quarters away)

- ETH/BTC looks insanely delicious at the 0.055 ratio that it sits on now

- if ETH/BTC ratio doesn't hold, I'll be in a world of pain for a long time, til ETH can push out protocol upgrades (and that is the month or quarters away)

- some major alts are down 80-95%

- many people are totally disavowing alts..... but now? lol sheep signalling

- the time to capitulate out of alts was a long time ago

- regardless of terrible fundamentals, they will pump, eventually

- betting AGAINST alts now is a very likely wrong outcome

- question is: will the eventual pump be higher than your entry price?

- going into questionable alts now is a gamble that the next pump / bull market, you can exit at a higher price than your current entry

- I am taking that trade for certain alts, with a several MONTHS timeframe to close position

- my core crypto positions are minimum 6 months forward looking, up to 3 years out

- my trading positions are usually at least 4-8 weeks minimum, out to 6 months

- contrast to my crypto peers, my time preference is longer, giving me more leeway and tolerance to be temporarily wrong, but also a longer time period to let my thesis play out and close with a win

- my arbitrage obviously happens within seconds, it has been a very successful

- as predicted, opportunities are drying up quickly and I am making significantly less profits now

- EOY $50,000 goal is pretty unlikely, but of course I'll keep working at it

- crypto is the biggest MMORTS game in the world, and the prize for being good is a ton of money

- you don't need to play on the big tables to win - actually, you shouldn't

- to win this game, you just need to play at tables where you can win the other players

- rephrase: this doesn't mean you have to be the best. you just have to be better than your opponents

- crypto is a negative sum game, so you need to be killing someone. who will it be?

- you don't win by winning the big fish, you win by systematically matching yourself up against weaker opponents

- so if you think its you vs the whales, you're obviously playing the wrong strategy

- the match-up should be you vs the plebs, so try to avoid whale match-ups

- good luck in crypto, it's a freaking mess, but a damned glorious battlefield nonetheless


Crypto has been the craziest thing I've probably ever done. And I've done plenty of stupid shit.

Some of my positions are way off from all time highs, but it's okay. That's crypto for you. I know why I bought them and I understand them very well. I lose no sleep at night with my positions.

This is probably because I am still in profits overall.

I could regurgitate all the good news coming out in the cryptosphere, but I don't want to be caught shilling. Converting normal people to crypto is the least of my concerns. Giving out tips and advice on more likely paths to success and dangerous areas to avoid once you've already entered the crypto world is probably the best that I can do.

Let's be real for a moment: this is just a random 20-something guy on the internet who talks about crypto on his own personal blog to himself about what he is thinking / doing / planning to do. That's all there is to it. Is it possible that I'm wrong and crypto goes to shit? Definitely possible. Probably? You be the judge.

As I've always said, crypto is not for everyone, but it can still be a great spectator sport.

Just watch me get rich or get rekt!

Saturday, July 28, 2018

A Traditionalist Approach to Bitcoin

Here's Bill Miller's take on Bitcoin.

It's a very good take.


- uncorrelated asset
- put 1% into it
- anyone can afford to lose 1% of their portfolio
- it's a positive expected return lottery ticket

I am so balls deep into crypto now that I feel like an expert on money and incentives.

Funny thing is, most people, even investors, have shit knowledge on money itself.

Making money? Easy.
Spending money? Easier.
Saving money? Great.
Investing money? Not too shabby.

Defining money? Wait u say mot m8?

Most people can't go any deeper than "because my government gives it value and backs it up".


If that's good enough for you, then great.

The next crypto bull run is going to be madness. Mass media all have an ear out and someone covering crypto. Crypto is near the tipping point of being treated as a niche investment at traditional institutes. At this point, nearly everyone in the world knows about Bitcoin.

Everyone knows that Bitcoin was $0.01, then $1, then $10, then $100, then $1000.

Next thing you know, we're at $10,000 and everyone is kicking themselves for missing YET ANOTHER opportunity to buy it.

The Lindy effect is already taking root and I think we will see even more mania in the next bull run.

As of now, except for the die-hard crypto community (which is tiny), people either have tiny exposure to crypto, or not at all.

Some people will say Bitcoin is not income producing. They are right, it is not.

Some people will say Bitcoin is not an asset. They have been wrong since 2009.

Some people will tell you not to invest and gamble into strange ponzi tulip schemes.
Of course you should not.
Also, Bitcoin is not a strange ponzi tulip scheme.

At the end of the day, the problem with forming an investment thesis on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is that most people are just not willing to go deep enough back to the basics and strengthen their foundational knowledge on money itself.

Sunday, July 22, 2018

The Govt should NOT bail out Hyflux

I read this post by Blade Knight from Dividend Passive Income talking about the Hyflux shitshow.

As many know, I rarely go out of my way to call out really trashy investments, because let's face it, a lot of investors are irrational and will gladly and happily buy up stupid shit. Just because something is terrible fundamentally, does not mean that it cannot be a good investment. Plenty of examples in crypto of pure dogshit going to the moon and making early investors 10-100x their investments.

But Hyflux and Noble are my muse. I go the whole nine yards just to shit on them.

I've been talking shit about Hyflux since forever, nicely summarized in this post, where I am *completely shocked* about what happened to them. Not.

The Government should NOT bail out Hyflux.

Replace Hyflux perpetual bonds / preference shares / stocks with ANY other investment, and you can see how ridiculous this notion is of thinking that the government has a role to play.

There was no misrepresentation.

I wrote about how terrible it looks BEFORE the offer closed. Don't say that G is not a bro and didn't warn you. GMGH got your back.

Risks were clearly highlighted in the Product Highlights Sheet. Even way more detail on pg 9-10.

It was a shitty investment into a shitty company.

Plain and simple. Clear as day.

Investors got greedy.

Investors get rekt.

Investors SHOULD get rekt.

The government should NOT be bailing out aggressive risk-seeking investors.

Investors need to wisen up the fact that every INVESTMENT has RISKS.

It is up to the individual investors to discern if those RISKS are compensated with enough RETURNS.

If no bond could ever go belly up, then I guess everyone involved in the bond market is mega retarded for not buying the highest yielding shit bonds in the market, right?

Saturday, July 21, 2018

Co-ops before Co-ops were Cool

With the recent 2 co-op articles pumped out by Dollars & Sense (one of the few financial blogs that I hold in high regards) and by SG Budget Babe (fellow crypto warrior), I thought it's time that I dug out my old posts on co-ops.

About 2 and a half years ago, I blogged about a mysterious financial product that as it turns out, is actually savings and share subscription at one of the co-ops.

Based on the last financial report, annual dividend is at 3% and there is a 30% buffer, making it a rather "safe" investment vehicle in my opinion.

As mentioned a long time ago, I am treating it as a cross between a last line of defense emergency cash, flexible rolling fixed-deposit and a retirement product that has emergency features to either:
(1) borrow from myself with a small interest cost or
(2) drain and withdraw entirely if need be.

I must say, I am particularly happy to have stumbled upon and open this co-op savings account.

If I continue at it, maxing my contributions every month, at the end of the day I'm going to have a very flexible, low-risk cash generating machine.

Recently, I have done a lot of re-arranging of my bank accounts and financial products:

- SGX stocks
- SSBs
- CIMB StarSaver account
- P2P loan capital and interest
- precious metals trading position
+ crypto
+ crypto

But amidst all that change, the few things that I have been doing is trying to:

  • keep my Citibank Maxigain account untouched
  • diligently contribute to my co-op savings
  • pay my insurance premiums

I guess soon it'll be time for me to do my financial spring cleaning and move around money from accounts, consolidate and close accounts and review my financial situation again.

Anyway, I was drifting off-topic for a bit.

Co-ops are great. You should check to see if you are eligible to join any. Even if you aren't, perhaps now is a good time to take stock of your finances now that we are past the 1st half of the year.

It's only when we know where we are, that we can properly map the path to our goal.

Don't get too caught up in the now and make (or don't make!) decisions that end up to be very costly for your future.

As much as I yolo into crypto, I do have the necessary fallback plans if it all goes to shit and I won't be ruining my life - it will merely be a set-back if my calculated risky adventure fails.

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Crypto Securities coming faster than you think

Note: I drafted this post on 7 June 2018, not sure why I didn't post it.


Remember my post just a while ago talking about crypto securities?

The wheels are in motion by both Coinbase and Nexo.

So institutional custody solutions are coming, and now crypto securities are up next.

(As a side note, I want to reaffirm my stance - AGAIN - that people who classify crypto securities as a "negative" might be missing some brain cells. There have been several notable cases of projects stripping and removing every ounce of valuable feature from their tokens, making them PURE UTILITY tokens. Needless to say, they end up as worthless trash that nobody wants to own. **COUGH BEE TOKEN COUGH**)

And if you listened to the podcast with the Bitmex CEO, you'd know that in his opinion, the vast majority of money in the crypto space belongs to retail.

Institutional custody solutions and SEC regulated crypto securities pave the way for institutional money to find their way into the space long only. Repos can get hedge funds in by allowing short strategies. That should be coming soon too.

I still believe that a lot the big money in the crypto space now are just limited to very forward thinking private funds and family offices. Of course, we all know about the tech VCs that have shifted focus from other buzzwords to come into the blockchain space, and there have been a recent uptick of blockchain specific VCs in the last 2 years, but that seems to be about it.

I've seen a "fund manager" boast that he has almost $1M AUM.

Please, I know a regular guy who alone has more crypto assets than that. But I digress. The point isn't that I know some whales here and there, but it's that the amount of professionally managed money in the space is extremely low.

And to be completely honest, I think some of these fund manager have no fricking clue what they invested in. You don't need to look very far for VCs that have spectacularly flush their reputation down the drain.

R.I.P. Trakinvest and Verime institutional investors. May the feeling of rekt be just a distant memory.

When the proper, actual, smart, managed money comes into the space, it's gonna be crazy.

Not only because crypto is gonna pump with all the money flowing in, but because it's gonna be asymmetrical where only some stuff gets pumped while a lot of stuff go zero.

Not everyone here today is going to make it across the finish line, that's what I'm saying.

Choose your allegiance wisely. When war breaks out, you don't want to be on the losing side.


I believe that securities, along with decentralized money and stablecoins are the 3 more interesting things about crypto now, and it is where I spend most of my time in the crypto space. ICOs, consumer-grade dapps and infrastructure and extremely uninteresting for me.

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

17 Jul 2018 Update

Crypto markets suddenly turned bullish on a dime.

Coinbase greenlighted for securities.
Blackrock rumours.
Billionaire Steven Cohen gettting into crypto.
CIA positive?
South Africa's financial firms adding crypto
India to regulate instead of ban crypto
Eve Bloomberg is bullish

To be honest, I'm meh about it.

I've mentally hardwired as a contrarian psychopath, so I don't really care.

To be honest, slightly bummed out that it didn't hit levels for me to raid my warchest (that I've been topping up slowly) and to add another leveraged long position, but oh well. The gain in my portfolio is nice, can't complain.

Anyway, I've been slowly building up and adding to my toolkit of generally market neutral strategies (strategies where I make money, regardless of market movement up or down).

As of now, I have:

$2300 hedged profits
$1500 unhedged profits in instrument A
$2900 unhedged profits in instrument B
and another ~$1300 profits in instrument C coming in at the end of August.

My $50,000 goal by the end of the year looks not too bad, since I could close and hedge all my positions and lock in a $6700 today and expect that other $1300 coming in next month.

Honestly, not too bad. I'm at ~16% of my goal, give or take a bit because of the unhedged positions.

In my previous update, I had secured 2% of my goal and I was expecting to end August at 10%.

Now that I'm already sitting at 16%, I'll try to eek out profits to hit 20% or hopefully 25% by the end of August. That would translate to $10-12k profits in SGD.

Technically, since I'm going for market neutral, I ought to be keeping my positions hedged, but I like the boost that I am getting from speculating that we can spike. I'd convert my profits slowly on spikes. It's all 100% pure profits anyway, so it's just a matter of how much money I profit/loss by speculating on the market movements. I suppose it's another form of trading, though its calculated risk instead of pure arbitrage. 

Since the market is in quiet mode, I'm glad I've honed a bit of my skills for making money instead of just being an idle holder. So much dead capital in this space, squatting on junk. Pfft.

I'll be adding node running to my skillset soon. The prospect of a sharding validator in a few years time and also running a LN hub quite appeal to the "passive income" side of me. Of course, the knowledge of these things are not simply acquired overnight. I'll be tinkering around with hardware, Linux and probably VPS as well. The knowledge of all of this is also a bit synergistic so the skill of running trade bots, which is also another more advanced skill that I'd like to learn in the future.

So I'm improving, upgrading, evolving.

By the time everyone else finally capitulates into crypto, I'd have ascended already. Simple Red Queen theory.

See you on the frontlines lads, and make sure you're not on the other side of my iron sights.

Monday, July 16, 2018

Crypto "Passive Income" - Staking, Masternodes, Dividends

"Passive income", "income investing", "yield investing" are the fashionable investing trend buzzwords of our time.

If you thought that only traditional investors can be blinded by yield and end up completely overlooking fundamentals and only focusing on the yield number, you would be wrong. This sort of irrational thinking exists and runs rampant in the crypto space as well.

The easiest example to give is the notion of Staking and Masternodes (MNs). What the similarities and differences? They are actually extremely similar. In both cases, you "lock up" your crypto and in return you get back a return. It's like a rolling fixed deposit. The difference is that for Masternodes there is usually a substantial minimum amount required, and also hardware and node requirements.

Just why are Masternodes so appealing? Just check out the yield. For the top 10 largest cryptos with masternodes, the annual yield ranges from.... 7% to a mindblowing 1407%.

Of course, if you use your brain for a moment, you realize that who cares if the yield is 1% or 9999% if its all in worthless masternode shitcoins?

And in almost all of the cases, that is exactly what it is. You get a billion % return, but your return are in coins that are rapidly losing their value faster than you can sell them off.

But you know what is funny?

Everyone knows that you CAN run masternodes with 5000% annual ROI, but yet no one does this. Why?

Pretty much everyone who is in crypto have already formed a rational argument against running shitcoin masternodes because of the worthlessness of them, yet strangely a lot of them cannot see that some of the crypto that they own is essentially the same thing.

Which ones, dare I name them?

Sure. NEO and ONT.

They pay out "dividends" in GAS and ONG.


Herpy herpy derpy derp derp.

If you're smart enough to see why 98% of masternode coins are scams, but you don't see how NEO/GAS or ONT/ONG is essentially a rehashed version of the same thing, your logic might not be working properly.

I don't want to shit on NEO too much, because a lot of fanbois own NEO and they are fanatical af, but the hypocrisy for me is painfully laughable when I see NEO/ONT supporters criticize shit masternoders or stakers. To be fair, NEO and ONT *could* be very successful in the future, and that would lead to their crypto becoming valuable, but I wouldn't bet on it. Like, I literally wouldn't bet on it. I own neither.

Honestly, there is nothing wrong with:
- Staking crypto (ARK, QTUM, DCR, etc)
- Masternode crypto (DASH, PIVX, XZC, BLOCK, etc)
- "Dividend" crypto (NEO, ONT, crypto securities, etc)

The key thing though, is that it isn't how much ROI% they payout. It's a question of whether the crypto that they pay out is valuable and useful. Is it digitally scarce and useful that other people would be willing to pay for it? How do they get the crypto to pay the returns? Who actually "pays" the return to the stakers / masternodes / crypto "asset" holders? *gasp* Don't tell me that they are just minting new coins out of thin air to pay these returns!

So, while I myself also like to relish the sick fantasy of being a fatcat rent-seeking passive income asset hoarder, I restrain myself from suffering from YIELD BLINDNESS - a strange disease that blinds yield seekers to the fundamental risks of the crypto that they are blindly chasing.

Of course I am biased and I will now reference my own "yield producing" crypto so that I can illustrate the difference between my genius-insanity and just regular pleb-insanity.

DGD - pays out voters in DGX, which has tangible value, since it is backed and redeemable to gold. The payout is from the fee pool for governing the DAO, which are taxed to general DGX users.

HAV - pays out stabalizers in nUSD, which is collateral backed and redeemable. The payout is from the fee pool for maintaining price stability, which are taxed to general nUSD users.

REP - pays out reporters in ETH. The payout is from the fees for accurate reporting, which are paid by Augur market users.

And some security tokens treat token holders as shareholders and pay them ETH as part of their contract of profit sharing.

Now, the argument that delusional people will bring up is, "Hey, I can sell my GAS for BTC/ETH and then sell it to USD too". And the counter argument to that is...... a secret. Because I've already given enough hints, and that's all I'm going to give. If you can't already see the difference between your regular staking / MN / dividend shitcoin and the ones that I have carefully selected to mention, then you'll never be convinced and think I just have a weak argument.

Honestly, I realized that I can't be bothered trying to teach or explain to people about certain beliefs that are seared onto their hearts. What do I get if I convince them to exit? Do they give me any money from what they would have saved? Naw, I only get blamed and "See look it went up, you're wrong" whenever it goes up.

At the end of the day, the only thing that talks is money. Lots of these "income" coins have serious hype and fanatical supporters. But let's see if owning more and more of coins that no one cares about is going to be valuable, or not. Let's revisit this in a few years time. I'll still be around and in crypto then. What about you?

My final hint is, if you can't explain WHY the ROI of a certain crypto is a certain value, WHERE it comes from and WHO pays for it, then you might be in a serious pickle.

For the "income" crypto that I proudly own and support, I can happily say that if the platform isn't used, I get diddly shit and my investment goes to near zero. But on the flipside, if I am right and it is something that gets adopted and widely used, the payout is gonna be sick.

If your crypto pays you out for no reason, there is a problem.

Saturday, July 14, 2018

Crypto-incrementalism vs Crypto-anarchy

What is crypto-incrementalism and crypto-anarchy? This article is a fantastic read on that.

I would like to clarify that I realize that I quite identify myself following crypto-anarchy, and that quite affects the way that I think, the topics that I write and how I approach them. I actually think that a lot of people would be quite pleased and agreeable to crypto-incrementalism, especially the "we like blockchain, but not Bitcoin" crowd. Heh.

When I first learnt about crypto back in 2013, it was almost exclusively about crypto-anarchy - decentralized, uncensorable crypto that cannot comply to authoritarian requests. Bitcoin.

As much as I was intrigued by crypto then, it looked like a dead end to me. Little did I know that the protocol evolves and upgrades and changes along with its community, developers and users. Just a while later, Ethereum would be "born".

In mid 2017, I was allured back into crypto, NOT by the improvements made to the Bitcoin protocol, but instead by the world of opportunity and use cases that I was imagining Ethereum could be solving. I did not see Ethereum as a means to liberate monetary policy from governments, but instead I saw it as very cutting edge technology that has the potential to disrupt, improve and cannibalize on existing industries and business models. I didn't know it then, but Ethereum made me a crypto-incrementalist.

I started branching out into lots of altcoins (shitcoins) during the crypto bull market. I invested in some really long-shot ideas because everything was seemingly rainbows and unicorns back then - even terrible ideas made money.

However, it wasn't long before I realized that there are A LOT of shitcoins. Like. A lot. A lotttt. A shit ton of them.

It has been quite a mental journey for me, but I've pretty much greatly narrowed my wide field of vision to zoom in only a handful (I can literally count them with my hands) of projects that I not only think would be good investments, but is furthering a mission that I can get behind. That's my take on tokens, over here.

So, while I was introduced to CA, what drew me in is actually CI, but now I find myself learning more towards the CA side of things.

My anarchist way of thinking on some projects are almost caveman-like, at times.

NEO? Centralized Chinese shitcoin with 7 nodes.
EOS? Centralized Western shitcoin with 21 nodes.
BCH? Centralized Chinese BTC clone shitcoin
IOTA? Centralized IoT shitcoin with 1 coordinator
ADA? 100 nodes? Centralized shitcoin.
LTC? 250 nodes? Shitcoin tier number of nodes.
95% of ETH tokens? Centralized shit tokens that serve no function, other than friction as payment.

Coincidentally (or maybe not), one of things that I observe that has me leaning towards anarchist blockchains is that they will thrive if they are able to exploit something that an authoritarian entity would like to oppose.

BTC - exploits money transferring laws
ETH - exploits fundraising and security issuing laws

Unless you can do something illegal with it, imo, you're almost always better with a centralized structure. Cheaper and faster.

I use this an extreme thought experiment: If someone develops a completely private and trustless way to store, transfer and sell data / information, it would be one of the most safe and private way to store private or corporate private information and access it anywhere in the world without anyone knowing who is accessing and what data they are retrieving. But the flip side here is that it would also unlock a way for illegal pornography or pirated content to be stored and distributed without people being able to stop it.

And that is what scares a lot of people. I actually know of people who are in crypto, but want the best of both worlds. Hunny, you need to make a trade-off, ain't nothing is perfect. We want great money, but we don't want terrorists to use it. We want great encryption, but we don't want criminals to have the same access. We want a pseudo-anonymous, 24/7, low-friction value transfer network, but we don't want money laundering happening on it. We want a world computer that can be programmed to do pretty much anything, but we don't want some people to be able to do somethings. Do you see the problem here? Where do you draw the line, and who draws the line? THE GOVERNMENT? LOL. And that's why I find myself in the anarchist camp over and over again. Ain't nothing wrong with being an incrementalist, but I suppose it's the difference in trade-off selection that divides the two.

So, while I do understand that blockchain is definitely a great data structure, it is tough in most situations to justify having a PUBLIC blockchain that issues CRYPTOCURRENCY to incentivize the correct behaviour of participants.

And that personal belief has lead to me to be biased against that projects that are not crypto-anarchistic. I think they will either fail as an investment, or fail to survive as a public blockchain because of lack of proper incentives.

Perhaps my stance might swing around again in the future, but I find myself identifying quite well with being a crypto-anarchist.

If anarchy isn't what we are here for, then what is it? Reduce fraud and errors so that bankers make more money, so that governments have more control and surveillance? I see so many people walking around with so many contradictions in the things that they hold onto.

Anyway, if that's the future we are heading towards, then that's not something that I would like to bankroll and invest with my own money to expedite progress in.

I'll just be in my lonely corner holding all my anarchist crypto. On the bright side - you'll never be able to seize them from me, no matter how worthless they become. Heh.

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Inconvenient Insurance Pills to Swallow

1) No one in Singapore needs whole life insurance

2) Most insurance agents will immediately pitch you a whole-life insurance or an ILP (which you should not take). You should not continue dealing with them.

3) Most agents have extremely poor knowledge in financial planning and investing. Some don't even know the inflation rate and gives you bullshit numbers.

4) If you are lazy to settle your own insurance, you will pay an arm and leg for an agent to recommend an expensive product for you. Nothing wrong with that, if you're lazy.

5) If you are lazy to settle your own investments, you will pay an arm and leg for an agent to funnel it through an ILP to get subpar returns for you. Nothing wrong with that, if you're lazy.

6) Don't buy endowment plans.


8) If you need to buy insurance from anyone, DO NOT ASK YOUR INSURANCE AGENT "FRIENDS". Ask a non-commissioned agent for advice or better yet, a friend who is an insurance actuary.

9) You MUST have a shield plan (H&S)

10) Get term life insurance

11) If you need more term life coverage later on, layer it up

12) If you have a family history of critical illness, add CI coverage in

13) If you have a terrible family history of critical illness, get early CI coverage and go for regular screenings

14) If you have a blue collar job, get personal accident insurance and consider unemployment insurance

15) If you don't know anything, fricking google it.


I recently had a debate with a friend about the insurance industry in Singapore, and that got me to make this post.

I really hate the insurance industry in Singapore. It's predatory *because of the screwed up incentive structure of products and agent commissions* and most consumers end up getting screwed.

Don't get screwed.

If you're an agent, try not to screw people, unless you really don't like them.

That is all. Dismissed.

Thursday, July 5, 2018

COE drop like grapes

ST wrote an article with some reasons.

Fact is, a few years ago when COE was at $92,000, there was a clear "bubble" in car prices.

In fact, I dare to say that prices have come down that it can almost be considered economically viable for some people to consider upgrading their transportation method.

Some time ago, I wrote about the transportation situation in Singapore. I think that with more MRT stations popping up, along with so many transportation alternatives, so many last-mile solutions, people are realizing that the NEED for a car, is actually a very, very, expensive WANT.

It's okay to WANT to have a car. You just need to realize that you just have to pay more. There's nothing wrong with that. However, if you are struggling financially, it's probably better not to get a car.

Honestly, I get why a car is great. But a lot of people who aren't car owners also don't get why it can suck too. Driving yourself, renewing season parking, pumping petrol, topping up cash card, regular maintenance, renewing insurance, paying for road tax, washing the car..... please, as much as its great to have (expensive) convenience on demand, people also need to acknowledge that there are a lot of un-fun responsibilities that comes with owning a car.

If you want the car, you got to do all that shit that comes along with it.

Personally, I rather call a Grab, play with my phone, take a nap, watch videos, catch up with news and not worry about driving and navigating through jams and traffic and later parking. Commuting in the morning is tough when you just woke up. Commuting after work is tougher when you had a long day and you're sleepy.

Anyway, that's was a short rant from me why buying a car shouldn't be purely a financial decision.

Back to transportation in SG.

I hope self-driving taxis can faster launch.
I hope there is limited and better 24/7 or late night public transportation services.
I hope that PMD can get their own segregated lanes.

There are wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too many bicyclists these days.

Everything is a trade off I suppose.

Pick your poison.

BEST Article on Stablecoins so far

This article is really, really good.

It's no secret, I am a big fan of stablecoins. I was really heavy into DGD, but I took disgusting profits from it's rise later on. Enough profits that my remaining position is free and I pocketed profits just from what I sold.

I have used Maker to leverage, it was a terrible experience.

Since then I've become rather bullish on a particular stablecoin project, which is Havven.

I'm still a fan of DGD for its goal, though as an investment, it's thesis is getting weaker and it is struggling to gain traction and adoption.

The article is an excellent read and I'm rather happy that the author concludes rather similar things that I have earlier myself independently come to conclude.

In short notes, my interpretation of some of his key points:

- Centralized stablecoins are easy, but stupid and goes against the decentralization movement.

- DGX is the best model to have off-chain assets and corresponding blockchain-based tokens.

- Most people think stablecoins cannot be invested in, since its price is stable. This is true.

- However, in dual-token stablecoin systems, the NON stablecoin can be invested into.

- Dai will never scale to meet demand in the high hundreds of millions, let alone billions.

- Havven's eventual problem is decentralizing its oracles, which no one has done successfully yet.

- Basis is greedy af and they don't need a shareholder token

- Carbon is great, but built on Hashgraph

- Fragments is great, but they've still a long way to go

- Reserve seems like a complicated mash up of the best things of earlier existing projects. Looks interesting.

My personal prediction is that the non-Tether stablecoin market will surpass $1b within 2 years. And if the projects with investible dual tokens succeed, their owners are about to become insanely rich.

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

GMGH take on Utility Tokens

Here is the reference article, please read it.

Here is the main classification table, I will reference it.

Store of Value
Only a HANDFUL will exist. Scarcity (stock to flow), decentralization and willingness of other people to accept them as stores of value are key factors to determine success. Upside potential is high, but can you figure out which crypto fall into this category?

Has no upside, with 100% downside risk. Not for investment purposes, but excellent as a medium of commercial transfer and short term wealth transfer.

Payment Tokens

Governance Tokens
Shit, unless you get paid (DGD)

Discount Tokens
Shit, unless people actually want to buy the tokens and use it for the discount themselves (BNB)

Work Tokens
This is my preferred classification. I believe that REP, HAV and actually even DGD falls into this category. The whole article above talks about why they are unique and special.

Burn & Mint Tokens
I have no opinion on them because I am not familiar with any good models of this.

Security Tokens
Pretty much the same as investing into any normal security, except you have global 24/7 trading, but the downside risks of the underlying asset itself does not change.


I only hold SoV crypto, Work Tokens.
I use discount tokens.
I am betting on the USAGE of stablecoins (NOT it's value appreciation, since there is none)

You most likely hold Payment Crypto / Tokens, which... surprise, surprise, nobody is actually accepting as payment.

I urge you to re-evaluate the kind of crypto that you hold and to think if they even have any value. Can I use the token? Can anyone else use the token? Who would buy the token from me and for what reason?

The failing of most crypto investors is being unable to realize that the success of the company and its products may, and usually, have NO correlation or impact to its token.

All the best.

Monday, July 2, 2018

$20,000 Crypto "Passive Income"

Right now, price of ETH is $450 USD.
After Casper + Sharding, 32 ETH is required to be a validator. (this link is a great read, btw)
USDSGD rate is about 1.36.

Do the math and you get $19,584, which will be enough to get the crypto capital required to run a validator.

Buy a NUC for about $400-500 and you've got yourself enough hardware to host the node.

(examples of NUCs: eg1, eg2, eg3)

So there you go, for about $20,000 SGD, you'll have the essentials to run an ETH validator once Casper and Sharding is out.

All of this is crypto nerd speak, but basically it's going to be a "passive income instrument".

ROI is fuzzy. Some people think 5%, but I'd imagine that the real life returns are 3%, or maybe even lower.

ROI is also in ETH, which is volatile against USD. I guess you can just assume it's 1 ETH a year.

So now you have an interesting curious case of having crypto capital paying out crypto returns.

Personally, I believe that ETH marketcap will be larger than BTC. That means at current prices, with BTC staying constant, ETH would be $1079 USD.

Capital gain of the 32 ETH in the node: $27,370 or 140% unrealized capital gains
New annual expected "income" from the node: $1460, or 7.4% pa

Now, if BTC goes back to $20,000 and ETH matches its market cap? Just a simple 3x to all those numbers above.

Capital gain would be close to $80,000 and annual ROI would be over 20%.

And this is if the value of cryptocurrencies just stagnate at those levels, which I personally doubt.

Anyway, these are all hypothetical numbers that I'm throwing out into the air.

Question: GMGH, how many ETH validators do you plan to run?
Answer: As many as I can.

Looking back at this post 2-4 years down the future when Casper and sharding is live and well, it might be crazy to think about how cheap it was to acquire these digital assets and how crazily disgusting the current returns are, such that someone with just a handful of nodes can retire and live a very comfortable life.

I'm not going to come out and explicitly tell you that you should get 32 ETH. Your money, your life.
But that's what I'm doing for myself and for people who have entrusted me to manage their crypto portfolios.

Sunday, July 1, 2018

Crypto Case Study: Bamboo (Acorns, for Crypto)

If we want to talk about the crypto version of Acorns, we first need to know, what is Acorns?

That's Acorns. It's a very, very, very interesting way and tool to help people save small amounts of money without thinking about it, and also a way to invest recurring and even lump sum amounts.

The premise of Acorns is that brain-dead easy. I've talked about Acorns wayyyyyyyy back on my blog in 2014, so I'm actually a very big fan of this model. I think it's a really good and painless way to help people save and invest.

So, the reason why I talked about Acorns first is that there is actually going to be a crypto version of it, and it's called Bamboo.

Same concept - round up small purchases and help auto-invest into a basket of cryptocurrencies.

Acorns was founded in 2012, raised $100m and now is worth about $1.28b.

Bamboo is looking to raise $20m with a valuation of $40m. However, it is important to note that TOKENS ARE NOT EQUITY.

This is where I am kind of meh about the idea of Bamboo.

- Crypto markets are way smaller than traditional markets
- Token is not equity
- Token only has value if (big if) Bamboo takes off and generates so much fees that users want to offset them with Bamboo tokens.
- Barriers to entry is not high (Acorns can offer crypto when crypto ETFs finally come out)

To be very frank, there actually isn't a good reason for Bamboo to issue tokens at all. If they just raised traditional equity VC money and pushed out their product and services and charge fees in cryptocurrency or fiat, it'd be a mighty fine business model already.

This is not me recommending to invest into Bamboo tokens. I'm skeptical on the return to be had as an investor. However, would I use this as a user if this was available in Singapore? Yes, I would.

Anyway, just wanted to share about a rather interesting crypto project to show just how fast this space is developing and trying to catch up with traditional fintech companies.

You can be excited about a company and its products and services, but that does not mean that you have to invest in it.

That is something a lot of new investors fail to realize.

Thursday, June 28, 2018

For the strong hands out there

Based on this metric, Bitcoin is reaching valuations almost 2 SD below its mean.

As always, I am a steady buyer.

Time horizon long.
My faith in crypto is strong.
Outcome could be wrong.

How'd you like my haiku?

I made it rhyme as well, as a testament to my linguistic prowess.

The question for me isn't if I should be buying now - the signs mostly point to yes.

The question for me is HOW MUCH I should be buying now to maximize my returns. It's always good to remember that cheap can get cheaper, and buying cheaper is better for returns.

I suppose the least wrong answer is just to average out my buys over objectively cheap periods like this.

2018 portfolio rekt, perhaps.

2019 portfolio rich, hopefully.

As always, time will time.

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

The State of the Crypto Markets Jun 18

Oh, how far we have fallen from the sun.

BTC is sitting at ~$6.2k and ETH at ~$450.

On the bright side, my leveraged long position at $377 is still in profits and I'm overall still in profits.

well not super sick profits like before, but c'est la vie

So this bear market has been pretty brutal, especially to all the new guys and to all the "ICO flippers". There's a reason why I'm mega selective on my ICO positions. I try to play defensive instead of offensive. Crypto is so naturally high risk anyway that just playing defensive is good enough for me.

My technical analysis (which is pretty shit) that I did a few months ago has been pointing to a bottom in Aug / Sep.

Recently, I have been studying the long and short interest in Bitcoin and I've come to conclude that we're likely to have at least another dump - there are too many people who are still very long in the crypto space. Being contrarian has it merits, because it helps you understand long and short positionings and their meanings quite well. When short interest was peaking 3 days ago, I was certain that we'd see a short squeeze and we went up quite quickly from the $5.8k range. But longs still remain, so there leaves a lot of cleansing left to happen in the space.

My updated view has got a rough bottom at late Sep / Oct. It might be the final bottom, or it might actually be a higher low, I've no idea, but that's what my hocus pocus magic meme lines are telling me. I don't use them with high conviction, so neither should you.

On the bright side, this bear market has been fantastic for the crypto space, the remaining players and the projects.

All the "get rich quick" people have rage quit and left after being wiped out on margin, the non-believers are selling now or will finish exiting their final positions on the next bounce, but the people who are still left will be promoted to sergeants in the next bull run with plenty of men (fodder) to keep them safe for the next battle, and the promotion that comes with it.

When I entered crypto, I almost immediately experienced my first bear market. In June 2017, ETH tanked from $400 to $140 in 35 days, lol. That's a face ripping -65% first month, lol.

In Sep, the markets tanked another 40%, but by this time I had made enough smart moves and knew what to do that my portfolio barely bled. On the worst day I think I briefly peeked into single digit negative for just a few moments, only to be rocketed back into the green within the next hour.

Coming into 2018, the markets were exuberant and now everything has fallen from grace. Most cryptos are down 70-90%. I'm down, but not as much. Call it luck, portfolio allocation, portfolio selection, trading strategies and arbitrage profit buffers, but I am not down that bad. The best part of all is that I'm still in profits. This crash has wiped out a chunk of my unrealized fairy magical profits, but my portfolio today, mark to market, is still in profits. How much profits, I shall decline to give a number. But it's still comfy. At least, for now.

The morale of that story is that the first bear market I encountered, I was facing a 65% loss. The second bear market, 0% was the worst day I had to deal with. With this being the third major one that I am dealing with, even on shitty days like this, I am still in profit.

Guess what will happen to the fourth bear market that I will face?

The fifth? The sixth?

I expect this bear market to probably be the last ever bear market that I will personally be affected and slightly stressed out about. For the guys out there facing this as their first, sucks to be you but that's the price we pay to be in crazy markets like this. I've already paid my "dues" by suffering in the previous bear markets, all with much less morale support by the smaller crypto community back then. Now there are personalities pumping out videos, articles and bites everyday with decent quality to them. It's a lot easier psychologically with the amount of community support now. Actually, I hope that to some of you, I am a pillar of support.

Once you've graduated from this bear market, hopefully the next one that you face, your capital wont even be affected, and the one after that, you're still in profits even in the darkest of days.

Aqua, the godess of uselessness blesses you

Projects are starting to panic because they've realized that value-less pumpy and hype news is not going to cut it and give their tokens sustained value. Useless crypto are fast seeing their values completely sucked out of them, and investors are getting wiser to what exactly they are buying into when they buy a token.

Is it a tokenized donation receipt to a private company? Is it a pre-payment for their yet-to-be-built serivces? Is it a security? Is it valuable? Will other people want to buy this from me?

People blame ICOs for being greedy and raising lots of money with stupid tokens. I disagree.
I blame investors for being greedy and handing over lots of money for stupid tokens.

The onus is on you not to be an idiot.

On the flip side, good projects are hunkered down and making lots of headway in this depressed markets. Stupid projects "hold back news" so that they can release them for maximum "pumpability" of their token price. Good projects release news when they have something to report, and continue building and making progress. Why? Because they know that the value of their project doesn't come from pumpy announcements, but from building projects that people will actually use because they see value to it.

With this bear market, I've had more time to think about a lot of things and I think this has been a good time to refocus my knowledge and understanding of things so that during the next period of excitement, I stay focused and on the right path.

Holding steady and continuing to buy the dip with fiat is not a problem with me because I truly and deeply understand the technology and the world that I am buying into. I don't have to convince you about it now. I am convinced and that is enough for me.

You can take your own time to be convinced and finally see the light, but maybe by then the crypto markets would be many multiples higher.

By the way, if you really don't believe in crypto, you should quickly capitulate so that we can cleanse the market and set up for the next bull run, haha.

Stay safe out there guys. With the markets doing so badly and everyone looking towards internet strangers for comfort, I wouldn't be surprised that scammers are getting more and more desperate.

Oh, I haven't updated my $50,000 goal yet. Currently I'm standing at 2%, but I've pretty much almost secured another 4% over the next 3 weeks. And I've also secured another source of profits that is like to push me about 4-8% closer to my goal in Aug. I'm pretty confident to say that by end of Aug I'd definitely have $5,000, or 10% in the bag. $50,000 is an ambitious goal, but it's a fun one to try and reach for. I'd still be happy with the outcome, no matter how much I fall short, haha.