Saturday, March 31, 2018

When Lambo?





I'll be really busy the next week or 2, basically a forced hodl for me.

But I've some drafts near completion that I can post if I have the time to finish cleaning them up.

Seriously though, a lambo in SG?
I rather take half of its value in cold hard cash.
10% discount if you can pay by crypto.
Extra 5% discount if it's Monero.

Btw, I opened (yet another) long position at $378.
I've also opened my first ever *crypto leveraged long* at $377.
Stop loss under $150.
Come and get it boys.

I really don't like using leverage, but these kind of opportunities don't come too often.

What's the worst that could happen guys? Just lose money lor.

Friday, March 30, 2018

Stay Solvent in these Irrational Markets

Efficient markets? Bullshit.

We all know that the traditional markets are shit at pricing stuff.

The crypto markets are even worse, with more people at the extremes. Extremely intelligent people pushing the frontiers of this technology, and extremely stupid people hoping to get rich without understanding anything. The latter outnumbers the former 9 to 1.

Anyway, the point is that the crypto markets are extremely inefficient at pricing things.

I always use DGD as my example, because it was one of the few things that I was EXTREMELY sure that the market was pricing incorrectly.


During this particular "wtf gmgh u stoopid shit" zone, a lot of people were questioning my thesis regarding buying DGD.

It got particularly worse during the January period when DGD was trading at up to 40% below NAV.

A few people stuck in the boat as me were doubting themselves. 


I had many many conversations like this around the period when DGD was severely underperforming the market. While many people were dejected about the short term price performance of DGD (and recommending to buy the dip in Tronix or Ripple, FFS), I wasn't too worried about its long run price because I knew that when the market find its value, DGD would be trading much higher.

And I put my money where my mouth is. DGD was my biggest position, by a massive margin.


This is not a post saying that DGD will go higher.

Also not a post about me being awesome.

This is a post about me highlighting how the markets are extremely terrible at pricing.

I've been buying ETH heavily since $700+, and I just executed more buys at these levels. It is not easy to overcome emotions and be buying into these kind of depressed markets, especially when every TA chart points to even lower lows and no one is predicting a recovery for at least months away.

But I don't make money following what other people are saying. My money, my choice.

I make money buying things cheap, and then selling it high.


I am still in triple digit % profits even after injecting lots of fresh capital to buy this savage dip. I still have more ammo left in my war chest, and I'm not afraid to use it.

As always, this is not an invitation for you to do anything. Just watch me get rekt or rich - only one will happen.

Either way, you've gotta admit, this is some entertaining shit.

Monday, March 26, 2018

I lost 40% this Crypto Crash

Portfolio is so rekt right now guys.

These days, I cry myself to sleep every night.


I was stupidly buying the dip.

From $740 to $686, I kept buying it as it went lower and lower.

Started dipping into my warchest finally and was buying from $645 and lower as prices tanked.

I managed to sink in 2 well placed shots at $466 and $487 at the spike down. Not sure if its good enough.

Now I've accumulated plenty of positions in the $512 to $540 range.

I don't know what came over me to make me buy the dip. Why would I do such a stupid thing?

My newly injected fresh capital is dragging down returns. My returns would be higher if I wasn't so itchy to buy the dip.

My portfolio is down 40% from ATH.
(Crypto markets is down 60% from ATH, Bitcoin is down 58%, Ethereum is down 63%)


I only have 157% profits right now.

Rekt portfolio is rekt.

I don't know how much more pain I can take.

I've resorted to doing arbitrage and I only managed to make $6000 the last few days. Will it be enough to save me?

This kind of low return is making me regret my decision to get into crypto.

If the market drops another 60% from here, I'm screwed.

If Bitcoin goes under $3300 and Ethereum under $200, my capital will finally be at risk.

Please hodl me, I'm scared.

Source: Stonetoss

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Sunday Humour (What I know vs What you think)

Source: @_jillruth

"GMGH, why are you so confident about cryptos?"

Because I know a shit ton about them.

You think I don't know about traditional investing? Heh.

But please,

Feel free to illuminate me with your deep knowledge on money and technology.


Thursday, March 22, 2018

Earned $1900 Clicking Here and There

How?

Arbitrage.

"F*** off GMGH, arbitrage doesn't exist in this day and age!"


Oh ho ho, but yes, it does.

I sold crypto on one exchange which had people willing to buy at a higher price.
I bought back the crypto immediately at another market by people there willing to sell at a lower price.
I end up with more crypto than I started out with. That difference is worth $1,900 if I cash it out now.


The crypto markets are so extremely inefficient in so many ways.

There are sooooooooo many opportunities, it's just a question if the situation, abilities and resources you have is the right fit to take advantage of them.

In my case, my resources was simply:
1) Being familiar and having accounts with the 2 exchanges
2) Having liquidity in both the crypto of the pair that I wanted to arbitrage

I sent my crypto to sell high on one exchange.
I sent my crypto to buy back low on the other exchange.

Click sell.
Click buy.

Boom.

1 second later, I am $1,900 richer.


In case you don't realize, arbitrage is risk-free (save for the low binary 3rd party risks with the exchanges).

Risk-free money sounds good eh? Well, only if you know how to do it right.

A lot of people can screw up arbitrage by not having liquidity and being greedy. Instead of instantly buying and selling to remove any risk of price slippage, they will buy from one exchange, transfer it to another exchange, and hope and pray that price doesn't change between the time it takes to process both the withdrawal from the first exchange and the deposit on the second exchange.

Luv, that ain't arbitrage. That's buying now and hoping to sell at a profit 30 minutes later. It is NOT risk-free.

If you don't execute the buy and sell almost instantly on both exchanges, it's not called arbitrage.

So anyway, there you go, arbitrage 101 class for you. Tip me when you get rich, thanks.

For those interested, arbitrage on some crypto pairs between illiquid exchanges can run as high as 20%, but I normally don't bother unless it's at least 5%, with enough market depth to make it worth my time.

The $1,900 today sure was worth my time though.

Overvalued scam ponzi tulip shit apparently. But $1,900 worth of it.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Too Early for Crypto Shitposting?

Markets are still down, but this is the next big dip that I was waiting for (see end of post). Looking good to post a bottom.

Anyway, time will tell.



It ain't never too late to be a degen and get rekt lads.

If you still don't see value in uncensorable, unstoppable, unseizable money, don't beat yourself up in the future about missing the boat. Nothing would have convinced you anyway.

"You don't have to understand it or like it. You just have to accept that this is the future"


Monday, March 19, 2018

Noble Noobs get rekt REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE


"All I see is a bad company becoming even cheaper and cheaper. I don't see anything currently that can give it's share price support and form a price floor. What's stopping it from going to zero? Maybe it can turnaround in the future, but buying things that aren't obvious is gambling in my view, which is why I cannot wrap my brain around growth investing.
I'm going to stick my neck out here and call Noble a value trap. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I don't have to be invested in it to have front row seats to watch how this show ends." - GMGH, Jun 15

The price of Noble has crashed to $0.11 after they have decided not to pay its bond coupon.

It's just only a 98.6% loss from when I decided to exit in Feb 2015.

But let's say you're a 2017 bagholder. I did in May 2017 say that Noble is a piece of shit. Boom. Only 73.8% losses if you didn't sell then.

Good ol' GMGH did warn you about this. GMGH got your back.

You wanna know what I think is going up next? Naw, nevermind. You'll think it's a tulip ponzi bubble.

US Crosses $21,000,000,000,000 USD Debt




No commentary necessary.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

0.002 BTC per person in the world. How many do you have?


As much as I used to shit on BTC in the past for being a slow and expensive blockchain, you really cannot deny that it is insanely secure and still a significant improvement over the traditional banking system as the perfect Swiss bank account with 24/7 access to transfer value P2P. Yes, you can send money after bank hours and over the weekend.

Well, my criticisms of BTC has dropped drastically due to pretty empty mempool right now.

The graph shows the transactions fees of BTC, and it is very CHEAP right now

You can force your transaction into the next block for just $0.33 USD.
Or you can be a cheapo and wait 8 hours and pay just $0.03 USD.
Contrast this to just 3 months ago when fees were pushing $30-40 USD per transaction, and you'll understand why this is significant.

The narrative for BTC already looks really rosy just like that, but wait, there is more.

Notable investors in Lightning Labs?

Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey
Former PayPal COO David Sacks
Robinhood co-founder Vlad Tenev
Litecoin creator / former Coinbase Director of Engineering Charlie Lee

While I recently bashed Litecoin, I can actually see it making a comeback with the Lightning Network. But, it's too premature to say. In fact, if the BTC LN is up and running smoothly, whats the need for LTC? This also weakens the investment thesis for Nano by a lot. Though (in my opinion), Nano is technologically superior, BTC does have the massive network effects on all 3 fronts - users, developers and businesses. The space for transfer of value is an interesting one and will definitely require close monitoring and more thinking as development takes place. For store of value though, I think we only have a handful of candidates.

Anyway, an interesting reddit thread from 2013 about a time traveller from the future. Real or fake, who knows?

All I know is that I have more than 1 BTC. How about you?

Friday, March 16, 2018

Podcast with Albert Wenger

March has been busy for me. Unbeknownst to most of you, I have been making a lot of strategic crypto moves over the past 2 months.

Anyway, just dropped by to share this particularly enlightening podcast.



The second quarter is about cryptocurrencies and I really like his more macro approach and thought process when it comes to investing in this space.

There's a large chunk about his book and UBI (which I don't buy), but maybe I might change my mind around that in the future.

A rather interesting part of the later half of the podcast is regarding zero marginal cost (a concept that MANY people still don't understand) and universality.

Regarding the general crypto market, I am a buyer now. I'm feeling very optimistic now after hearing about noobs getting rekt -80% , lol.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Crypto Videos for Noobs

I'll try to make this educational and tone down on the sarcasm.

3 videos for you to watch first:

1) CryptoLark giving you the down low on Crypto Investing


2) Ameer Rosic throwing down some ICO knowledge


3) Kenny Rogers teaching you how to play the game right


ELI5 summary:

Crypto is dangerous, but also potentially very profitable.
ICOs are mostly bullshit.
You have to know when you hold 'em and when to fold 'em.

GMGH notes / rant:

I'll be the first to admit that I have profited massively - MASSIVELY - on "investing" in crypto.

I say "investing" since 99/100 people you'd conventionally look for financial wisdom to will call me a degenerate gambler and that this whole hocus pocus thing is a scam and I'm just lucky that this whole ponzi hasn't collapsed in my face.... yet.

But I am a degenerate gambler that has been winning. Admittedly, my winnings are less with this recent crypto crash, but its still winnings and not losses.

And yes, so far it is all mostly paper profits (I have cashed out before, stop freaking asking me if cryptos can be cashed out, FFS) , but guess what? I have enough paper profits that this whole market could drop another 50% from these levels and I'd still be in ridiculous - REDICKULOUS - profits.

I don't follow any gurus. All the personalities that I follow are to help me with idea generation and to give different point of views. One thing though, is that I never follow people blindly, even those with good track records.

At the end of the day, I still do my own research, think very hard about the future, and I pull the trigger and make my own decisions on what to buy, what to sell, when and how much.

If you can't be critical on projects, accepting of flaws and open to new ideas, this space will kill you very quickly. Ideas a few months ago which I though were great, I have dumped and I now own zero. **COUGH COUGH KYBER COUGH COUGH**

That's the problem, ain't it? If you follow people to buy stuff, you are definitely buying it later and usually higher than them. And when they exit, you never know.

This ain't some chicken shit ETF DCA strategy. If it was, the whole world would be rich. There's a shit ton you need to know to excel in this sector.

Stay safe and don't get rekt. If you don't know what you're doing, please don't even start.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Brief Crypto Thoughts (March 2018)

Well, well well, what do we have here? Another crash!

Totally. Not. Surprised.

What if I told you that the crypto markets crashes (more than 20% drops) once a quarter? Guess what. I did. Oh how time flies. At that time, crypto had crashed 38% to $3000+.

Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait a minute.

It crashed.... to $3000+?

With price flirting around the $9000 level, half a year on, you would be up just under 200% if you had bought that dip. (I did, I bought ETH at $245, $246 and $248 during that particular dip)

I think the main point that I am trying to drive home is that the crypto markets are, by the nature of it, volatile and fickle as duck. (look, no cussing!)

If you got into the game because you're a greedy, lazy gambling degenerate, then I guess you are rekt. And you should be (how's them TRX, XVG, XRP?). This is a dangerous game. If you thought you'd just throw in money here and boom become a millionaire in a month, then you're are DEFINITELY retarded.

All the critics criticizing crypto come together, clap and circle jerk each other whenever news that it is crashing hits the mainstream media.

Yet they all - oh so conveniently - forget that (unless you bought the top with the rest of the herd in Jan) the market is still massively up lol.

Anyway, this is mostly for the people that are sitting on the fence and considering learning about cryptos. Go take a look at all those critics and their criticisms of crypto, then look at the price graph. Know that 9/10 have no freaking clue what they are talking about and just carry Buffet's balls and say that "Crypto is bad. Baaa". Anyone that entered the scene before November is sitting on at least double digit % profits.

Don't get me wrong. I ain't saying crypto is for everyone and you should yolo and go all in. I'm just saying, most of the critics of crypto have no clue what it is or does, and most even admit that they don't understand. "I don't have to understand it, it's an obvious bubble". mmmmkay.

To be honest, this is exactly the kind of fuel that I thrive on. I work hard on my crypto portfolio so that one day I can take it out and slap fat stacks on the table and rub it into everyone's face. Yes, that is my secret agenda. Well, secondary to me being rich and baller af.

Crypto is extremely emerging technology. A lot of stuff is still not working yet and there are few use cases right now.

But more and more are being built, and the pace is mindblowing. By the end of Q2, a lot of projects would be online and the use cases will be increasing and increasing. In fact, I'd reached a state of crypto zen that I actually think I can see the future of cryptos and how things are going to pan out. I'll save that post for a later date though, I'd have to accumulate first before I shill.

Next thing you know, we have sovereign crytpocurrencies, massive MNCs switching to blockchain and trying to link to public ledgers and tons of VC money pouring into this......


Oh wait, that's already happening.

The irony of how just a while ago blockchain ideas that get pitched to VCs get shoo-ed away. Now, VCs are the one whaling into ICOs. Funny, ain't it?

This space moves so quickly, it's hard to stay on top of everything. Even Elon is reading up now so that they can get in early and rekt you.


We are still at least a couple years away from regular people using cryptos, so just keep that in mind. If you think that people are gonna start paying for shit in BTC and ETH tomorrow, then you're actually the crazy one.

I think stablecoins will be a massive theme moving forward and a key piece for mass adoption. So there's my big hint for you on one of the pieces that will be a pivotal turning point.

Anyway, this crazy volatile market is just... crypto being crypto.

If you don't know how to play to win, then you're just fodder in this game.

My personal strategy: Think long, focus on the basics and the necessary, avoid hype and advanced ideas (that require basic building blocks, which are actually still missing), don't be leverage, don't short (with the volatility, traders with the skill can take shorts, but I ain't no trader).

Bulls eat. Bears eat. Sheep get eaten.

Friday, March 9, 2018

Catching Crypto Knives

What's the worst that could happen?

Get rekt.
Crypto is a scam.
Go back to crappy traditional investments.



On a serious note, I have a shit ton of profits, still. (well, it's all relative. probably not so much if you're on the crypto dark side, but triple digit profit % is still mindblowing for the "traditionalists")

If the whole crypto market drops another 40% to the $5000 BTC and $400 ETH levels that the doomdays sayers think that we are heading too, I'd still be in profit.

That is why I don't really have qualms buying the dip. For me, I'm just reducing my fiat liquidity and overall profitability percentage wise, for the upside of sick gainz. For the crypto class of 2018, I hope you are enjoying your initiation.

Anyway, I'm going in. Please don't follow me. Know what you are doing yourself and why. I never condone stupid and brash behaviour.

That said, LEEEEEEEEROYYY JEEEENKINSSSSSS

Thursday, March 8, 2018

Crypto Markets Last Night


Binance "Hack"
SEC statement
Japan regulation
BitMex login issues.


Also, me last night.


And this is my haul from last night's flash sale.


Yea boi. Market orders. Cos I don't fool around.

To all those people that sold to me, here's one for you.


Is this the bottom? Who knows.

What will I do if it drops some more? I'll buy more.



Update: 9/3/18 0222



Update: 9/3/18 0950



Classic 3rd drive. If it free-falls, I'm pulling back at the next levels of support. Hehe. Yes, I still have bullets.

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

"Blockchain" in Action

Source: @sysmannet

Here is a pretty simple example of how blockchain works in a real life case study:

In Latvia, a cash register prints out receipts with the usual total and receipt number.
AND a hash of previous receipt to generate a hash of the current "block number".

The next receipt then has its own total and receipt number, and takes the just generated hash, and creates a new hash.

What this means is that the entire trail of receipts, total amounts and final ending amount can be checked and verified to be true.

What this means is that no transaction in the past can be altered after created.

What this explicitly means is that no receipt can be tampered to have its amount changed.

Does this have ramifications to accounting systems and even combating employee fraud? You tell me.

This, ladies and gents, is how "blockchain" works to secure the data in the chain.

But, facking tulips, amirite?



"Ooooooooooooooooooo, I get it now GMGH!

But why can't we just do blockchain without the cryptocurrency part?"



The answer: You can. (I even wrote about the different terminologies here)

You just don't get an anti-fragile, decentralized system.

And if I want my money to be on the system, I prefer it to be anti-fragile and decentralized, thank you very much.

And oh also all the nifty benefits of sending a placeholder of value digitally through the internet.

But still, even I'd admit, blockchain is a good database upgrade.

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Crypto Prophets

I think too many people are blindly following "crypto" gurus these days.


Are they seriously that good? Has anyone ever even backtested their calls? Most of them can't TA for shit.
Maybe its not that they are convincing, but the people following them are easily convinced.


By now, you would think that crypto investors would be a lot more selective about who they follow. I know I am.
Until recently, Bitconnect "spokesmen" were actually considered influencers. Yeah, seriously wtf. It's kind of sad.
You really have to be careful who are the people you're following in this space. Some people are borderline crazy.
I don't even like posting about specific crypto anymore because I know some people are just going to blindly buy it.
No, even if you email me privately, I won't tell you what or when to buy or sell. Please don't email me stupid shit.
Go do your own freaking research before coming into crypto. Like, right now. Shoo.


Anyway, that's just my rant for today.
I just wanted to warn people not to take the words of internet people too seriously.
Only you can be trusted to be the best custodian of your own money.
Not convinced? You can join my signal pump group, and I'll dump on you, haha!

Monday, March 5, 2018

Hyflux? REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Saw this news from ST?

Let's see what's the Monday miday price is like:

Hyflux stock price: $0.265
Hyflux pref stock: $77.70
Hyflux perp bond: $0.600

Since my post 3.5 weeks ago when I was shitting all over Hyflux?

Hyflux stock price: -29%
Hyflux pref stock: -18%
Hyflux perp bond: -20%

Since my post almost 2 years ago when I was shitting all over Hyflux back in 2016?

Hyflux stock price: -53%
Hyflux pref stock: -24%
Hyflux perp bond: -40%

(I know I didn't count coupons. I'm lazy and the shittier returns makes me look better)


It sure seems that I like shitting on Hyflux a lot. And for good reasons (evidently).

I'm not trying to say I'm an oracle. (I won't be upset if you call me one though *wink*)

My point that I'm trying to make is that, yes cryptos are risky. But freaking hell, traditional investments are risky too!

You know what's the saddest thing about this whole Hyflux shit? The majority of the people holding onto these toxic assets are not the savvy investors. They are the mom and pop investors that got lured in by a high yield number.

The same thing happens in the crypto world where noobs end up holding worthless bags and bags of rekt shitcoins. (And let's be honest, 90% of cryptos are trash and you will lose money on them)

Do you not see the parallels?

So everything has risks. As volatile as crypto is, VOLATILITY IS NOT RISK. Even within the crypto asset class, there are less risky options and very risky gambles. Just like the traditional stock market.

If you can't recognize that, you're just letting your bias of "cryptocurrencies are in a bigger bubble than tulips" clout your thinking.

If you don't know, just say don't know. Don't act like you know. Got no prize to win. Thanks.

I will not rest until I am no longer seen as the "crazy crypto blogger". RESPEK MI.

Saturday, March 3, 2018

The Nocoiner Starter Pack



But you know, it's all about perspective, isn't it?

Source: 99bitcoins 

Source: urban dictionary 

This post is all in good fun against the crypto skeptics! Or is it?

Friday, March 2, 2018

46% of 2017 ICOs have already failed, Yours is next

Interesting piece for your reading consumption.

I'd say the #1 misconception now by intermediate crypto players is the thinking that you "need to do more ICOs to juice up your returns, especially in a sideways / bear market".

Meh.

Won't say I fully disagree, but I don't think that is very accurate, or else I would be doing that strategy as well.

However, I must say that crypto ICOs are extremely skewed with risk and rewards. For some people, going for obscure ICOs and hunting down low cap cryptos - AFTER FILTERING AND ANALYSIS - can prove to be an extremely profitable strategy.

Then again, this strategy only works with limited value since you don't want to end up being the only person driving up the price and volume. How can you exit a huge position if the daily trading volume is less than your holdings?

^ This is something that A LOT of people just don't understand. Market freaking depth. Just because the price is $X, that does not mean that you can sell out your position at $X. A lot of people sorely misunderstand this, and that'd be the death of them when they are stuck in dying positions with drying liquidity.

Anyway, a lot of people seem to have forgotten the 1st ICO purge of 2017. If I'm not wrong, the turning point ICO was Monetha, which had massive FOMO and sold out within a few blocks. A few weeks later? Losses.

This was the time when Binance was considered the "ICO Graveyard", where shitty projects that fail to get Bittrex listings would pony up 5 BTCs and pay for a Binance listing in hopes of placating the token investors constant stream of "when exchange?".

Fast forward back to today, the number of hot steamy shitty ICOs streaming off the conveyor belt is alarming to me. A lot of the crypto uneducated are falling for all these "early bird bonuses".

If everyone gets bonus +100% tokens, do you really get bonus tokens?

Another risk that I would like to highlight is "pooling" with strangers. Pooling is now getting common since a lot of ICOs have huge investor's interest and they are skipping a lot of work by instead offering $1m to 1 VC / pool / whale instead of $1000 to 1,000 people. It is now getting increasingly harder to get a decent amount of allocation unless you qualify for pre-sales (which usually includes a MINIMUM) or if you join a pool.

Doing ICOs is already risky - risk that the team is a scam, risk that the project just sucks, risk of scammers pretending to be the team (MITM attack).

Adding a pool on top of this increases your attack vectors drastically - risk that the pool master runs away with your money, risk that the pool master does not accurately give you tokens, risk that the pool master himself falls for a scam, risk that you yourself get scammed to sending to a fake pool.

Anyway, I'll conclude simply:

Unless you are an intermediate / advanced crypto enthusiast, I would highly recommend to AVOID doing ICOs because there are just so much risks involved and many are unable to properly mitigate such risks, so the crypto noobs fall for a lot of these traps rather easily. Scammers still keep on scamming because there are still plenty of people falling for these scams.

Even if you are an advanced player, I think it's we can admit that most ICOs are shit and that 95% of all other participants are in it to flip it.

Every single ICO that I've done, I've made money. It's not a qualification, but I think that as someone that have done a few successfully and analyzed dozens, my experience should count for at least something.

I am done with ICOs this season (Ocean Protocol whitelisting done and likely to be the last ICO that I will do for now). Next to nothing is compelling or intriguing to me. I am always on the lookout for great ideas though. But seriously, most are shit.

Of course, I'm just a crazy crypto guy, so take my ramblings however you see fit.

Stay safe.