Thursday, May 31, 2018

How To Lose 99% in Cryptos in 3 months

Step 1

Don't read articles by this egotistical blogger like this one warning about shitty ICOs.

Step 2

Choose a project based on amount of bonus tokens.
Only the best of the best projects give bonus tokens.
More bonus, more betterer, right? The betterest, I believe.

Step 3

Make sure that the CEO of this tech company and blockchain project actually doesn't understand technology by ensuring his last LinkedIn activity was 4 years ago and his last twitter activity was 3 months ago.

Step 4

Confirm that the project is
- targeting a very niche segment of users
- who will not pay for any services

This is to ensures minimum revenue, cashflow and profits.

Step 6

Skip the whitepaper, except the part on the token's lack of utility.
This is important because if the token is actually not redundant, it might have value.

Step 7

If possible, join a pool.

Pooling is the best because it means that every single plebian can get the maximum bonus at the lowest price.

Then you can dump on all the whales who will be buying it on the secondary market!

Step 8

Send your donation, oops, I mean investment in!

Step 9

Wait 3 months.

Step 10

You've done it!


Congratulations!

You managed to lose 99%!

Be proud of yourself. It's not easy to pick a project like that out of all the hundreds of ICOs out there. It takes real skill to select a project like that. This kind of accuracy comes with skill, not luck.


You are da real MVP.

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Why Crypto-Securities will be YUUUGGEEE


Why?

This whole damn post, that's why.

You can either go, "Meh, stupid blog post with a link to another article. I'm not going to read it."

Or you can click it, read it, and then later go, "Oh shit, HOW DO I INVEST IN THIS?".

Sometimes I don't know what it would take to get people convinced that this whole cypto hocus pocus tulip nonsense thing is here to stay.

A lot of people don't realize that we are STILL in extremely early stages of crypto technology. What can crypto be used for, today, right now? Speculating, pretty much that's it. But use cases and applications are being built out right now and when they are ready for mainstream adoptions, it's gonna be huge.

What was smartphones 15 years ago? Nothing.
Can you even go 15 minutes without looking at your smartphone today?
You might even be reading this post off your smartphone!

I feel a lot of people in the space now are super overestimating the actual usage and utility of crypto right now, and are massively underestimating the usage and utility of crypto in 5 years time.

Assets will be tokenized. Securities will be tokenized.

Not because I say so, but because it doesn't make sense NOT to do it if and when the technology to do so becomes feasible. And it is rapidly approaching that threshold.

Sunday, May 27, 2018

Why Can't We Print More Money?

Government running out of money?

JUST PRINT MORE.

Seriously, what could possibly go wrong?



Wait, GMGH, are you being sarcastic?

I'm so confused right now.

Saturday, May 26, 2018

Havven, my newest favourite project

Aites guys, here it is, my declaration of love.

Havven is currently the project that I am most excited about in the crypto space right now.

There are A LOT A LOT A LOTTTTT of critics of stablecoins, but meh. I've read their opinions and views. I don't agree with most of them. So here I am, swimming against the tide again. As usual.

So what is Havven? Crypto Lark, one of my favourite, no bullshit YouTuber, talks to Havven's founder, Kain in this interview below.


If you remember one of my previous articles about the crypto path to trillions, I linked Multicoin Capital Kyle Sumani's article which mentioned that one of the possible paths is through stablecoins (the other two being Store of Value and Utility).

Again, like I said, stablecoins have LOTS of very vocal critics. But I am no fool, so I've done my own readings.

Reading 1 - Multicoin Capital's "An Overview of Stablecoins"
Reading 2 - Haseeb Qureshi's "Stablecoins: Designing a price-stable cryptocurrency"
Reading 3 - Anthony Xie's "The Instability of Stablecoins"

Unless you're a team member in a stablecoin project, I can probably school you on stablecoins.

But alas, I am not here to preach or shill you muh bags. Tbh, idgaf if you believe in this thesis or not. I'm just publicly putting it out here so that I can be smug about it later if I'm right. If I'm wrong, you can laugh at me for losing money. Good thing though is that almost nobody is looking into the stablecoin space, thanks to all those vocal critics, which means that if a stablecoin does succeed, it will be massive. The alpha is massive. Remember the skewed risk and rewards I was talking about? This is one of them. A stablecoin WILL reach the market cap of billions. The question is which one, and when? I'm betting on Havven.

Why not Maker DAO? I have used Maker DAO before. It's a real pain in the arse. What Kain says in the interview echoes my opinion very closely - DAI will never, ever, possibly scale up to a big enough circulating supply to be useful. It's basically a decentralized, weak self-leveraging system that creates Dai stablecoin as a by-product - and that is what is important. The only incentive to create Dai is to created a leveraged position, and that's it. They aren't gonna scale up. Trust me. Great guys, good team, but their model really doesn't match with Havven's design. The main thing that they've got going for them is that Dai is market tested while the full nUSD implementation of Havven isn't.

Last month, I did update my portfolio. One of the new entrants has been Havven. Since then and now, I have been accummulating a pretty sizeable position. Unless Havven flops due to a legitimate competition eating its lunch, I'm actually very comfortable with the whole thesis and I'm planning to hold onto my HAV tokens and stake them to earn network fees.

Yes, this is a staking token and you get rewarded for providing collateral and stabilizing the network.

So, I kind of have a shit ton of HAV right now. And you know what? If the nUSD launch which happens on the 11th of June goes well and adoption takes off very nicely, I'd actually happily continue to increase my position size and climb up the ranks.

Anyway, I just wanted to let everyone know that I have a pretty big bet on HAV which is a pretty small market cap coin.

Let's see how things go. All the best to me.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Omg, Hyflux? I am SHOCKED by this SURPRISING and UNEXPECTED news

So Hyflux has applied to the High Court to stop creditors from seizing their assets, in other words, bankruptcy protection.

Who would've known, right? How terribly surprising and shocking news that just appeared out of nowhere. I am sure no one saw this coming, at all, from years away. /s


I've been perpetually shitting on Hyflux since 2016 until recently.

Why are people so in love with Hyflux? Because of the high yield they pay out? From your own capital that you supplied to them? Kek.


Hyflux share price when I talked about it in 2016: $0.528
Hyflux share price when last traded: $0.210
Dividends since then: $0.0045
Total Return: -59.4%

Hyflux preference share price when I talked about it in 2016: $99.80
Hyflux preference share price when last traded: $65.37
Payouts since then: $12
Total Return: -22.5%

Hyflux perpetual bond price when I talked about it in 2016: $1.00
Hyflux perpetual bond price when last traded: $0.500
Payouts since then: $0.09
Total Return: -41.0%


It looks like out of all the securities listed on the SGX, I just so happen to go out of my way and spend my time and effort to publicly shit all over 2 companies (Noble and Hyflux), way in advance before they go bust.

But, that's just a lucky coincidence, I guess?

At 60% debt to assets, a very ugly and underperforming stock, 5 year stagnant revenues and declining profit, it doesn't seem to me like it would be a good bet that Hyflux is going to have the ability to pay me back my own money which I lent them without going bust. It's not like they are using their debt / assets well to generate more profits.

Now they are borrowing money to pay back borrowings. Not even going to think much about it.

If you are vested, its a good thing if they can raise money to pay back their debt, since it gets more expensive if it doesn't get repaid. If you're not vested, I would implore you to find some good reasons to get yourself involved in this mess. I can't find any, other than a 6% yield, which is meaningless if you only get paid for a few years and lose the principal.

To me, it's a no no. I'm staying away and I'm just going to watch this show. -GMGH, May 2016

Honestly, the signs for Hyflux was written all over the walls, same as with Noble.

I'm not saying a genius. I'm saying, it was pretty damn obvious to me what was going to happen.


Good luck and stay safe. If you don't protect your own money, no one else will.

Monday, May 21, 2018

China's Ministry of Bagholding Publishes Offical Shill List

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

It sounds fake, ikr, lol.

But whatever, that's the news I came across. I'm just sharing it. My Chinese sucks, so you guys can go check the original sources for yourselves. (Source 1, 2, 3)

I mean, it's published out on the SCMP, so it seems legit, haha.

This is probably the best 3rd party summary of the news though.



Long story short? Buy Ethereum, lol.

Anyway, I just found it interesting how so many governments and corporations are looking positively into cryptos. It seems that the places with intelligent people are no longer refusing to acknowledge it or calling them outright scams.

Good for the long run I suppose.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Laura Shin x Mike Novogratz Podcast

 
Great podcast for anyone interested in crypto.

Mike Novo gives a pretty toned down and less extreme view on the future of crypto and how things can play out with relation to the status quo now.

IMO, the best stablecoin has already been conceptualized and will be going live in about 3 weeks. I might be wrong, but I don't think any fiat-collateralized stablecoin could ever work, without a government guarantee over that coin.

Anyway, I'm just glad to be in before the full institutional and main street money FOMO pumps everything crazily.

You think Dec 17 / Jan 18 was retail FOMO?

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Friday, May 18, 2018

Embracing Blockchain or Crypto? Confused?

Yesterday's post didn't give you a hard-on? (You ought to read that first). Maybe today's will.





WTF am I looking at again GMGH?

You're looking at the French Finance Minister admit that he was skeptical about crypto a year about, but after understanding it, he's hot for it and wants to make France crypto friendly. Ain't that interesting?

Over in Russia, Sberbank just did their first blockchain based commercial bond transaction - something that Singapore's Project Ubin is trying to do in their Phase 3.

The infamous JP Morgan whose Jamie Dimon has shat on crypto publicly, now has a platform that uses blockchain technology for securities transactions.

Our dear friends in Europe who have recently gone crypto crazy, Malta is implementing blockchain technology to improve its public transport system.

So that's the good news so far.

What's the bad news?

Blockchain is NOT cryptocurrency.


What's the difference? I made a post about the terminologies here. You should read it.

Governments and companies and banks embracing BLOCKCHAIN technology are understanding the importance of data integrity and making them tamperproof.

However, these improved DATABASES are still vulnerable because they are not distributed.

Hence, the other "corporate-fied" term, which is distributed ledger technology (DLT) - having multiple databases so you don't get screwed by any single database mulfunctioning.

To be honest, it's not a bad thing for blockchain technology to be embraced. A lot of documentation and digital trails can and should be secured using blockchain technology. But by no means does this mean that the price of Bitcoin or other cryptos will go up.

Eventually though, some people, corporations and perhaps even governments will see and understand the importantance of not only blockchain technology (immutable, tamper-proof data), distributed ledger technology (which has redundancy and resistance to single point of failure), but that it is also public (free from top down manipulation and accessible to all).

Until that happens, don't get too excited when you hear governments and companies embracing blockchain technology.

I purposely did this post back to back with yesterday's post so that you can compare and contrast the different news.

On the surface, both seems bullish for crypto, doesn't it?

After my post today, maybe you'd understand why only yesterday's news is bullish, and today's news is just sort of interesting.

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Welcome, Institutional Bagholders


GMGH, wtf am I looking at?

You're looking at the official statement by Nomura Bank in Japan to have a crypto custody solution for institutional investors.

Which comes after Coinbase announcing their own suite of institutional products.

Which comes after the NYSE planning to allow institutional investors to buy and hold bitcoin.

Which comes after Goldman Sachs announcing they are going to open a Bitcoin trading desk.

Facking tulips ponzi virus is getting spread all over the world.


THESE GOVERNMENTS AND BANKS AND COMPANIES AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW ASAP THAT CRYPTOCURRENCY IS WORTHLESS RAT POISON TURDS.

Some people, when faced with certain amount of evidence, are able to change their previous stance.

So, what are you gonna do?


If you are undecided, just check back here once in a while and see how things goes for me.

No pressure.
No stress.
No risk.

Just sit back, relax and watch me get rekt or rich.

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Special Offer! Get divorced to get another HDB! Wait, What?!

I saw this article, and I was pretty amazed.

A couple divorced so that they could get another HDB and rent out their existing one. Heh.

The loopholes in our system are so big and open to exploit if you don't mind to play the system.


Let me help you weigh the pros and cons since we are both intelligent creatures of reason:

Cons:
- No longer married on paper, boo hoo hoo oh how tragic and sad

Pros:
- You can get another HDB so you can rent out your previous one

Sure, there's like spousal rights and privileges that they give up, but, meh. Trivial.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I still maintain that "marriage" is just a status. You don't become more loving, loyal, faithful and kind to your spouse the second after you sign the piece of paper. It's all in your head.

Perhaps some people need some arbitrary authority to mandate to them "proper" things that they should do when they love someone, and "improper" things they should not do when they love someone. And of course, to give them the start date to begin doing these new things. Because everyone knows that before you get married you can be a cheating jerk, but after that you must be a loving spouse because - you know - the magical power of marriage. /s

It is my personal belief that it's just a label.

It looks like this couple have realized that the "status" of marriage comes with no special magical super love powers, and that it's actually more practical to *OH GAWD HORRORS OF HORRORS* to divorce and be LABELLED single.

Yes, that bit was super sarcasm, in case it flew over your head.

Is this move morally ethical? Meh. The rules are there and they played by it. In my books, what they did is totally fine and legal. I guess I'm not going to be a supreme court judge anytime soon, eh?


Financially, it makes more sense.

Relationship-wise, it'll make no difference. It might even become more positive with a fresh home and nice rental income rolling in.


I find it interesting that in this particular situation, there was a "cost" to being married and a benefit to being labelled single.

Extremely amusing. We live in such interesting times.

All right, now let's watch the divorces rates for couples after 35 to start spiking up. Finally, a good excuse to get rid of the ol' chain and ball, eh? GMGH got your back.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Follow Up on Argentina's 100 Year Bonds

Remember when Argentina sold $2.75b of 100 year bonds?

I do.

Because I wrote about how stupid of an investment that would be.

If we aren't at the cusp of madness yet, I am more than willing to be entertained to see what will top this insanity.

You don't need to trust me to know that this is not going to end well. - GMGH, Jun 17

Source: Bloomberg

Yes, let's lend money to this incompetent government for a hundred years that has defaulted MULTIPLE times in the last hundred years.

SURELY they will not default this time, again, amirite?


"but but but but but but governments bonds are safe investments!!!".

LAWL.



Say it with me now.

Bonds are safe.
Cryptocurrency is risky.

Now, 100 more times! With more gusto! Like you actually believe it! 

Good job, the masters would be pleased with you.

Monday, May 14, 2018

I might have figured out why Buffet hates Bitcoin




If you follow the QR code by this brilliant artist, it does NOT lead you to a donation address.

It leads you to this image:


Which shows you that BRK is owning $66.3 billion worth of bank stocks.

I wonder why Buffet hates Bitcoin?



Damn, I just can't figure out. The reason just escapes me.

For someone like me with subpar IQ and a degen mindset, it's probably beyond me the genius thinking that goes on in the mind of a legend like Buffet.

Oh, by the way, did you know you can transfer Bitcoin to anyone, anywhere in the world, anytime, pseudo-anonymously with no need for a bank account, verification, permission or approval?

For an average transaction, it costs $0.60 if you need it sent within 10 minutes.
It costs $0.03 if you don't mind that it takes a day.

This fella sent $16,000,000 USD worth of BTC just today.
It took 1 minute and 14 seconds and it costed him $2.95 USD of transaction fees.
Yes, his transaction fee charge was 0.0000184%.
He paid $0.18 for every $1,000,000 that he transferred.

Wait, what's the point of these statistics again?

I forgot.

Man, I just can figure out why Buffet doesn't like Bitcoin. You think he has some kind of agenda? It's almost as if the very premise of Bitcoin itself undermines banks in multitudes of ways, and that would be negative for his investments.

By golly, do you think that's the reason?

No, it can't be. Good ol' uncle Warren is so nice, he wouldn't be devious just to make money!

Sunday, May 13, 2018

Buffet, Munger and Gates all Hate Bitcoin

Buffet on Bitcoin, "probably rat poison squared."

Munger on Bitcoin, "Disgusting" "Stupid" "Immoral" "Turds".

Gates on Bitcoin, "Pure greater fool theory type of investment" and "would short it".


Warren worshipers, now is the best time to show them how much you trust them and have learnt from them.

Do what your subconscious Buffet ball-holding inner self is telling you to do.


Short Bitcoin.

Yes, you can actually short Bitcoin using the CBOE futures contract, if you were not aware that legitimate financial products for Bitcoin now exisits. And this is on top of all the CFDs available.

Put your money where your mouth is at.


You know what they say:

No guts, no glory.
No brain, same story.

Come and trade against me. Profit from my arrogance and delusion. 

What are you waiting for? A red carpet? 

All these people saying that Bitcoin is stupidly valued and will definitely be worthless - as it rightfully should - but with no balls to put money up and back up such statements. So much talk and not a single dollar to show for it, haha pathetic.

SMH.

Goddamn, empty vessesls, amirite? 

Talk is very cheap these days.


I've taken the opposite position and I have already made many many many multiple dollars to show for it.

Take up a position or shut your mouth. 

Why don't want?

Scared you wrong ar?

Lol.

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Massive Positively Skewed Cryto Risk-Rewards




I'm not saying to do crypto, I'm just pointing out something that seems rather obvious to me.

In all investments, unless there is some magical explicit guarantee, the maximum loss is 100%.

Generally speaking, the "lower risk" an investment has, the "lower returns" it would give. Ie. a bond that will be redeemed at 100 face value won't trade too low below this number, but returns won't be high either.

Well, assuming of course if the borrower can pay back the bond. Bonds are rather binary in nature, imo. If they can be paid back, they will stick around face value. And if not, they are pretty worthless. You don't get the smooth downward trend that you see in equities.

Anyway, I don't want to explain too much. This isn't rocket science. The risk/reward relationship holds true because it makes sense.

The thing about crypto, which many rational and logical people have still failed to realize and understand is that crypto's risk/reward is extremely positively skewed.

ICOs are pumping out sick returns like the tweet above. And guess what? Those aren't even that good of a return. For 2-4 months of locking up funds in an ICO and waiting for release, most people were expecting a lot more profit.

Average ROI in ETH is x2.6, or 160% profit.
ATH ROI in ETH is x3.4 or 240% profit.

Worst two ICOs? -40% and -20%.
Odds of doing a losing ICO? 2 out of 11, or 18%. Or rehashed, 82% of making money.

The strategy that a lot of people in the crypto market has already realized and been employing is that splitting your capital and dropping a bit into several ICOs can supercharge your returns because the losses from the duds would be totally covered by the profits of the studs. Couple those ICO returns (in ETH) to the $ price increase of ETH over the period and your returns could compound to disgusting levels of profits.

I did one of these ICOs. It's in the top half of this page.

But ICOs are risky. And lots of ICOs are extremely stupid. I don't take part in most ICOs because I find lots of the ideas terrible. If I'm putting money into a stupid idea but I'm still expecting to profit, I'm gambling, not investing.

I repeat.

ICOs are very risky (in terms of fraud, scams, hacks, technological noobness, etc).
ICOs have mostly stupid ideas.

But hey if you know what you're doing? Ka-ching, ka-ching baby.

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Japan Loves their ETFs




What happens with the BOJ owns 99% of all ETFs?


Ah, who cares?

All governments should be printing more money to buy up all financial assets!

Surely this makes a lot of sense somehow!


1000000000% stock returns for everybody!

I can't believe no one else has thought of this. People are so stupid.

I'm a goddamn genius, I tell ya.

Saturday, May 5, 2018

Crypto Portfolio Apr 2018 Report Card

From 1st Apr to 31th Apr, my crypto portfolio went up 48.8%.

To be honest, +48% in Apr is rather weak. Most other players in the space would've probably seen much larger gains during this same period. But then again, I did outperform during the crash, so it makes sense for my portfolio to bounce back less during the recovery.

And yes, throughout this massive crash, not even for a second did my portfolio go close to touching my capital value. For most part of it, I was comfortably coasting in the triple digit % profits.

However, on the bloodiest day itself, I saw my % profit dip to levels not seen in quite a while. That was the sign for me.

I leveraged in.

That leverage position is doing extremely well. If I close that position right now, I'll be pocketing 5 digits profits.

But I'm both greedy and extremely confident that the worst is over - at least to those levels that we saw right at the start of the month.

I'm going to keep my leveraged position open, and perhaps close it a few years down the road for a 6 digit profit. Worried for me about the cost of keeping such a position open? 0.5% per year. Chump change compared to the amount of profits I have already made and will be making. That's the beauty of the Maker system.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm not going to do monthly report cards often.
The returns are too sick and unreal.
They don't make sense and aren't meaningful.
It's ridiculous.

From my 2017 review, my portfolio is up in both SGD$ and ETH. Yes, I'm doing better now than back then. Mind you, global crypto marketcap has DROPPED 25% during that same period.

Plus, you all also know that I'm pretty much all in. That means...



So me doing this weird crypto tulip ponzi scam nonsense bullshit?

Fantastic so far.

I wrote a list of like 10 things that is showing the pace of both progress within the industry and acceptance from outside the industry, but I deleted all of it. Why? At this point, if you're not convinced, you never will be. And I don't give a shit because I don't get anything from you participating in crypto, or not. Instead, I get crap about how I will eventually be proven wrong and this whole thing is a sham.

And that is totally fine. You can think whatever you want. You can do whatever you want. You don't need to jump on every opportunity, and you shouldn't unless you know what you are doing.

Go read more Warren Buffet books and buy Apple stock or something.
(looks like the top to me, but hey what do I know about traditional markets, I'm just a crypto pleb)


And for all my skeptics getting ready to blast away in the comments section, you might want to reserve your comments to tell me to "just wait and see" for a later time. I've already drafted and saved even more annoying and triggering posts for the future, so you might not want to use up all your ammo so fast.

Friday, May 4, 2018

What I Hate About Crypto

Don't you just hate it when crypto just keeps going up and up and up and you can't get a good entry for a new position?

And you just have to end up hodling your fiat?


Yeah, me too.

It's tragic.

Thursday, May 3, 2018

Tech isn't always a good investment

Aites, this is me, back in Nov 17:

The stock market is a ridiculous shit show for the last few years that I had been forced to play with. I hated playing it, but there was no other game in town.... that I knew of. 

Insane valuations for so many stupid companies. SNAP FREAKING CHAT? TWITTER? GO "CAMERA ON A STIK" PRO? I can't even. It's an insult to my intelligence. The whole US stock market is an entire joke. 

- GMGH Nov 17 

How's things going now?



To be fair, Twitter is chugging along fine. I've always hated camera-on-a-stik for quite a while already though, posting this as far back as Nov 2015. It's so stupid, I can't even. Just millennials that own a Gopro buying into their stock with their salary thinking that they are now savvy since they invest. Meh.

Looks tasty? I don't know, could go up I suppose, but the fundamentals are weak af. Be careful buying dips, or else you just might end up - NOBLED. Haha.

The joke is even funnier when you know of people thinking that they are oh so smart and saying that "it's okay - I am dollar cost averaging down".

I know some people like that.

It's fricking hilarious, lol.

Oh shit, sounds like me averaging into ETH. Dammit, what's the point of this post again? I forgot. Maybe it's supposed to be that fundamentals are also important? Heck, I don't know. Oh well.