Tuesday, June 26, 2018

The State of the Crypto Markets Jun 18

Oh, how far we have fallen from the sun.

BTC is sitting at ~$6.2k and ETH at ~$450.

On the bright side, my leveraged long position at $377 is still in profits and I'm overall still in profits.

well not super sick profits like before, but c'est la vie

So this bear market has been pretty brutal, especially to all the new guys and to all the "ICO flippers". There's a reason why I'm mega selective on my ICO positions. I try to play defensive instead of offensive. Crypto is so naturally high risk anyway that just playing defensive is good enough for me.

My technical analysis (which is pretty shit) that I did a few months ago has been pointing to a bottom in Aug / Sep.

Recently, I have been studying the long and short interest in Bitcoin and I've come to conclude that we're likely to have at least another dump - there are too many people who are still very long in the crypto space. Being contrarian has it merits, because it helps you understand long and short positionings and their meanings quite well. When short interest was peaking 3 days ago, I was certain that we'd see a short squeeze and we went up quite quickly from the $5.8k range. But longs still remain, so there leaves a lot of cleansing left to happen in the space.

My updated view has got a rough bottom at late Sep / Oct. It might be the final bottom, or it might actually be a higher low, I've no idea, but that's what my hocus pocus magic meme lines are telling me. I don't use them with high conviction, so neither should you.

On the bright side, this bear market has been fantastic for the crypto space, the remaining players and the projects.

All the "get rich quick" people have rage quit and left after being wiped out on margin, the non-believers are selling now or will finish exiting their final positions on the next bounce, but the people who are still left will be promoted to sergeants in the next bull run with plenty of men (fodder) to keep them safe for the next battle, and the promotion that comes with it.


When I entered crypto, I almost immediately experienced my first bear market. In June 2017, ETH tanked from $400 to $140 in 35 days, lol. That's a face ripping -65% first month, lol.

In Sep, the markets tanked another 40%, but by this time I had made enough smart moves and knew what to do that my portfolio barely bled. On the worst day I think I briefly peeked into single digit negative for just a few moments, only to be rocketed back into the green within the next hour.

Coming into 2018, the markets were exuberant and now everything has fallen from grace. Most cryptos are down 70-90%. I'm down, but not as much. Call it luck, portfolio allocation, portfolio selection, trading strategies and arbitrage profit buffers, but I am not down that bad. The best part of all is that I'm still in profits. This crash has wiped out a chunk of my unrealized fairy magical profits, but my portfolio today, mark to market, is still in profits. How much profits, I shall decline to give a number. But it's still comfy. At least, for now.


The morale of that story is that the first bear market I encountered, I was facing a 65% loss. The second bear market, 0% was the worst day I had to deal with. With this being the third major one that I am dealing with, even on shitty days like this, I am still in profit.

Guess what will happen to the fourth bear market that I will face?

The fifth? The sixth?

I expect this bear market to probably be the last ever bear market that I will personally be affected and slightly stressed out about. For the guys out there facing this as their first, sucks to be you but that's the price we pay to be in crazy markets like this. I've already paid my "dues" by suffering in the previous bear markets, all with much less morale support by the smaller crypto community back then. Now there are personalities pumping out videos, articles and bites everyday with decent quality to them. It's a lot easier psychologically with the amount of community support now. Actually, I hope that to some of you, I am a pillar of support.

Once you've graduated from this bear market, hopefully the next one that you face, your capital wont even be affected, and the one after that, you're still in profits even in the darkest of days.

Aqua, the godess of uselessness blesses you

Projects are starting to panic because they've realized that value-less pumpy and hype news is not going to cut it and give their tokens sustained value. Useless crypto are fast seeing their values completely sucked out of them, and investors are getting wiser to what exactly they are buying into when they buy a token.

Is it a tokenized donation receipt to a private company? Is it a pre-payment for their yet-to-be-built serivces? Is it a security? Is it valuable? Will other people want to buy this from me?

People blame ICOs for being greedy and raising lots of money with stupid tokens. I disagree.
I blame investors for being greedy and handing over lots of money for stupid tokens.

The onus is on you not to be an idiot.

On the flip side, good projects are hunkered down and making lots of headway in this depressed markets. Stupid projects "hold back news" so that they can release them for maximum "pumpability" of their token price. Good projects release news when they have something to report, and continue building and making progress. Why? Because they know that the value of their project doesn't come from pumpy announcements, but from building projects that people will actually use because they see value to it.

With this bear market, I've had more time to think about a lot of things and I think this has been a good time to refocus my knowledge and understanding of things so that during the next period of excitement, I stay focused and on the right path.

Holding steady and continuing to buy the dip with fiat is not a problem with me because I truly and deeply understand the technology and the world that I am buying into. I don't have to convince you about it now. I am convinced and that is enough for me.

You can take your own time to be convinced and finally see the light, but maybe by then the crypto markets would be many multiples higher.

By the way, if you really don't believe in crypto, you should quickly capitulate so that we can cleanse the market and set up for the next bull run, haha.

Stay safe out there guys. With the markets doing so badly and everyone looking towards internet strangers for comfort, I wouldn't be surprised that scammers are getting more and more desperate.

Oh, I haven't updated my $50,000 goal yet. Currently I'm standing at 2%, but I've pretty much almost secured another 4% over the next 3 weeks. And I've also secured another source of profits that is like to push me about 4-8% closer to my goal in Aug. I'm pretty confident to say that by end of Aug I'd definitely have $5,000, or 10% in the bag. $50,000 is an ambitious goal, but it's a fun one to try and reach for. I'd still be happy with the outcome, no matter how much I fall short, haha.

4 comments:

  1. Bitcoin still a leading indicator for stocks.

    Plenty of time for another 10 thousand percent up move.

    Armageddon only in 2020.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Just do btfd, we dont know when it bottom, but we know it will be much much much higher than the previous high.

    victor

    ReplyDelete
  3. It's real fight for the future of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was first, therefore, he is at top of all. However, many shops accept bitcoin payment https://bitcoinbestbuy.com/pay-online-stores/ and it's very good sign : )

    ReplyDelete
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