Saturday, July 28, 2018

A Traditionalist Approach to Bitcoin

Here's Bill Miller's take on Bitcoin.

It's a very good take.


- uncorrelated asset
- put 1% into it
- anyone can afford to lose 1% of their portfolio
- it's a positive expected return lottery ticket

I am so balls deep into crypto now that I feel like an expert on money and incentives.

Funny thing is, most people, even investors, have shit knowledge on money itself.

Making money? Easy.
Spending money? Easier.
Saving money? Great.
Investing money? Not too shabby.

Defining money? Wait u say mot m8?

Most people can't go any deeper than "because my government gives it value and backs it up".


If that's good enough for you, then great.

The next crypto bull run is going to be madness. Mass media all have an ear out and someone covering crypto. Crypto is near the tipping point of being treated as a niche investment at traditional institutes. At this point, nearly everyone in the world knows about Bitcoin.

Everyone knows that Bitcoin was $0.01, then $1, then $10, then $100, then $1000.

Next thing you know, we're at $10,000 and everyone is kicking themselves for missing YET ANOTHER opportunity to buy it.

The Lindy effect is already taking root and I think we will see even more mania in the next bull run.

As of now, except for the die-hard crypto community (which is tiny), people either have tiny exposure to crypto, or not at all.

Some people will say Bitcoin is not income producing. They are right, it is not.

Some people will say Bitcoin is not an asset. They have been wrong since 2009.

Some people will tell you not to invest and gamble into strange ponzi tulip schemes.
Of course you should not.
Also, Bitcoin is not a strange ponzi tulip scheme.

At the end of the day, the problem with forming an investment thesis on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is that most people are just not willing to go deep enough back to the basics and strengthen their foundational knowledge on money itself.



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