Saturday, August 4, 2018

Quick Crypto Musings

- the hype in the space has been mostly cleared imo

- most of the quick flipping degens have either rage quit, or are down at least -50% from capital (stuck, refusing to book a loss)

- BTC and ETH looks great to me (I am contrarian)

- ETH looks much better FA and TA wise

- BTC has the better branding, and will be the 1st port of call for fresh funds (retail and institutional alike)

- my play on the majors is buying ETH to front run the ETH/BTC pump that will eventually come (could be months or quarters away)

- ETH/BTC looks insanely delicious at the 0.055 ratio that it sits on now

- if ETH/BTC ratio doesn't hold, I'll be in a world of pain for a long time, til ETH can push out protocol upgrades (and that is the month or quarters away)

- some major alts are down 80-95%

- many people are totally disavowing alts..... but now? lol sheep signalling

- the time to capitulate out of alts was a long time ago

- regardless of terrible fundamentals, they will pump, eventually

- betting AGAINST alts now is a very likely wrong outcome

- question is: will the eventual pump be higher than your entry price?

- going into questionable alts now is a gamble that the next pump / bull market, you can exit at a higher price than your current entry

- I am taking that trade for certain alts, with a several MONTHS timeframe to close position

- my core crypto positions are minimum 6 months forward looking, up to 3 years out

- my trading positions are usually at least 4-8 weeks minimum, out to 6 months

- contrast to my crypto peers, my time preference is longer, giving me more leeway and tolerance to be temporarily wrong, but also a longer time period to let my thesis play out and close with a win

- my arbitrage obviously happens within seconds, it has been a very successful

- as predicted, opportunities are drying up quickly and I am making significantly less profits now

- EOY $50,000 goal is pretty unlikely, but of course I'll keep working at it

- crypto is the biggest MMORTS game in the world, and the prize for being good is a ton of money

- you don't need to play on the big tables to win - actually, you shouldn't

- to win this game, you just need to play at tables where you can win the other players

- rephrase: this doesn't mean you have to be the best. you just have to be better than your opponents

- crypto is a negative sum game, so you need to be killing someone. who will it be?

- you don't win by winning the big fish, you win by systematically matching yourself up against weaker opponents

- so if you think its you vs the whales, you're obviously playing the wrong strategy

- the match-up should be you vs the plebs, so try to avoid whale match-ups

- good luck in crypto, it's a freaking mess, but a damned glorious battlefield nonetheless


Crypto has been the craziest thing I've probably ever done. And I've done plenty of stupid shit.

Some of my positions are way off from all time highs, but it's okay. That's crypto for you. I know why I bought them and I understand them very well. I lose no sleep at night with my positions.

This is probably because I am still in profits overall.

I could regurgitate all the good news coming out in the cryptosphere, but I don't want to be caught shilling. Converting normal people to crypto is the least of my concerns. Giving out tips and advice on more likely paths to success and dangerous areas to avoid once you've already entered the crypto world is probably the best that I can do.

Let's be real for a moment: this is just a random 20-something guy on the internet who talks about crypto on his own personal blog to himself about what he is thinking / doing / planning to do. That's all there is to it. Is it possible that I'm wrong and crypto goes to shit? Definitely possible. Probably? You be the judge.

As I've always said, crypto is not for everyone, but it can still be a great spectator sport.

Just watch me get rich or get rekt!

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