Monday, August 5, 2019

The Current Crypto Narrative

So, this is the current narrative that is going on, and will go on wrt the macro lenses of traditional investors.

- USDCNH broke 7, XAUCNH broke 10,000 = China can't keep their shit together
- USDKRW broke 1200 = new Asia getting rekt as well
- Japan yield curve inverting = shit gonna htf
- US bond yields dropping
- larger % of global bonds going deeper in negative yields (23% of all global debt, last I heard)

Basically, negative yields means crazy shit is happening.

How will most countries react to an economic recession, since they haven't had to face a global one in the last 10 years? Some might say even close to 20 since the last recovery was on the back of extreme intervention.

It is likely that majority will simply default to the path of least resistance and lowest short term pain, which would be to print money and inflate themselves out of debt issues by depreciating their currency.

That has ALWAYS been the playbook since money printing costs nothing short term.

Well, it costs nothing until the faith is rattled and lost and people refuse to accept and allow their money to have their purchasing power deflated away.

Not surprisingly, BTC and the general crypto market is now getting sent up along with this narrative.

Why? What does crypto have to do with anything?

Well, BTC and ETH are just the major cryptocurrencies that CANNOT be printed. They have a known global inflation level that is DECREASING over time (~4% now), but that's it. Supply and demand affects the price. No one can unilaterally decide to "print" more BTC or ETH and make everyone rich. Their known supply and inflation schedule makes them scarce.

As each day goes by and the world progresses deeper into the digital age and more people realize and understand what is going on, more money slips out of the traditional financial system and finds PERMANENT home in cryptocurrencies - currencies that are unseizable by any government or authority, that are outside the monetary manipulation of the traditional financial system and those that control it.

Now add that to the DECREASING supply schedule over time. Less and less new coins will be minted into existence. BTC new emissions halves ever 4 years. ETH new emissions are adjusting downwards to further reduce inflation, but still be secure against blockchain attacks.

Add both of those together and that means fewer and fewer of these coins will stay in circulation. As the demand to hoard them increase since they cannot be printed, a lot of available supply will be taken off the markets, leaving less and less coins for a growing demand. It'll be a double whammy as fiat currencies accelerate their depreciation, while cryptocurrencies start to skyrocket in value.

Honestly, it's beyond insane for me to think that people in modern day 2019 living in a country with largely free access of information is unable to get their hands on *some* cryptocurrencies.

For me, I sleep well at night. I have an extremely significant portion of my net worth in cryptocurrencies. I have converted most of my family and friends to hold some cryptocurrency, and many more have been exposed to the idea.

I'm not in the business of evangelizing people to be crypto enthusiasts to buy my bags. I don't give a shit what you do. None of my business. Buy crypto. Hate on crypto. I sleep well at night. My thesis is sound.

You think I don't have all the apprehension and questions that you have right now? I don't know that it sounds like a ridiculous ponzi at first glance? Lol. Sorry to burst your "genius" bubble, but I had all these same doubts in 2013 and have been actively questioning them to find out the answer. And after I did, I've gone all in.

It's my money, my choice. I don't need to give YOU a reason. And of course, YOU should not be convinced to buy shit that you don't know or don't understand because of some pseudo-anonymous schmuck on the internet saying that all no-coiners are plebs. But, yes, all no-coiners are plebs. Kek.

People think that at the end of the day, I'm going to sell my cryptocurrencies back to SGD and make a huge profit.

That is wrong.

At the end of the day, my cryptocurrencies will be seen and viewed as money itself, and I will have complete freedom if I choose to continue to hoard them, or spend them. Crypto is rare and precious. Fiat money is infinite and everywhere.

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