Thursday, February 21, 2019

Last call to re-evaluate your DGD thesis

As some might recall, one of the biggest and most profitable crypto trades that I made was with DGD that I started buying in mid 2017 which I sold in Apr and I finally exited my position in Sep 2018.

I explained my thesis when I sold off my position in Sep 18. Since then, the price of DGD has cratered 43% in ETH and 55% in USD. Won't toot my own horn because everything is in a bear market, but yes, I believe that DGD's issues are not systematic and there are unique problems that it alone has. I doubt that it will ever recover, and if it does, it will be quickly sold down.

So on top of all the things I've mentioned before, now there is actually going to be a strong competitor against the gold-back cryptocurrency DGX that is produced by DGD.

DGX charges a fee for transferring.
DGX charges an annual demurrage fee.
DGX has fat premiums over spot.
DGX trade volume has limits based on availability of supply and order book liquidity.

It's competitor? Has none of that. And is also about to launch a silver offering.

It's tracks the value of gold with no fees for transferring, no annual fees for storage, miniscule premium over spot (0.15% of spot rate to buy or sell), and finally it has no trade limits and no issue fulfilling any size order that wants to buy or sell.

I don't want to mention the specific token and the project because I don't want to be accused of shilling. If you're that interested and you follow me, you already know what I'm talking about.

I see zero chance of DGX taking off when a better alternative is available. It's not like DGX is so widely used and integrated that it has network value and a critical mass. It doesn't. It's still an open playing field, and they are about to get smacked off the field.

Anyway, I just wanted to point this out for people who missed the news back in Sep 18 that I really hold 0 DGD tokens because it is fundamentally a train wreck. It has proven itself right.

As you all know, I'm almost always bullish about crypto in the long-term, so if I'm bearish on anything, you best believe that I have good reasons to be bearish.

Anyway, just a shameless plug to my twitter. If you want to engage with me, that's the best way to do so. If you want to see what I'm looking and thinking about, all you gotta do is read my retweets and tweets.

Stay strong peeps, I'm not worried about crypto. If you read and experienced the things I have, you probably wouldn't be worried about it either. It's a game about time, and time is something as a retail investor that I have plenty of.

Friday, February 8, 2019

Calling the Bottom...

in COE prices.

Charts from here.

I've talked about COE before a few times, like in 2018 and way back in 2015.

Honestly? If you're one of those kind of "guys" that get a hard-on for cars (they actually look at the cars at the car show, not the car girls), now is a pretty decent time to pick up a car, with COEs this low.

Personally, I don't really get it.

I don't like the luxury and status of owning a car. Why attract gold diggers? There are girls who literally exclude dating guys who don't own cars. That sounds fantastic. It'll be great to never meet such people.

I don't like playing the status game AFTER that of comparing cars either. For me, cars is just a mode of transportation. An expensive mode of transportation. That I have to pilot myself. And maintain. Bleah.

I actually don't even like driving cars. I rather sit down, play my phone or take a nap, and just be chauffeured around. Does driving spark joy in me? No, it does not.

Funny enough, I had a friend a few years ago who was "forced" to buy a car "because of job". Obviously, it's a self-justified reason to own a car. Mid 20s driving a car is quite cool, right? Like I said, it's a good gold digger magnet. Current status? Sold the car, swore he will never own a car again. Why? Just too expensive. After deducting all the expenses for his car from his take home pay, he had almost nothing left. It only took him about a year to realize how ridiculously expensive cars were and he dumped the car after that.

Granted, now it is "cheaper" to own a car, considering the initial capital outlay and the "depreciation" expense over the 10 years of the car. But you know what doesn't change? Everything else, like insurance, maintenance, road tax, parking, ERP, etc etc.

I know A LOT of people like to self justify that they literally NEED a car if they have kids and what not, but I don't have kids so I can't say. But I know of people with children and no car and they manage fine, so maybe it's possible that a car is a WANT and not a NEED?

Who knows. It will forever be one of life's great mysteries.

Seriously though, if you really want to buy a car, now is a decent time to consider it.

Then again, with all the improvements to transport infrastructure (new MRT lines, ride-sharing, e-scooters, on-demand buses, EV renting, sheltered walkways, etc etc), you really should also consider the financial cost of car ownership and the added value that it brings to your life, and if that cost is worth it.

For me, at this point of time in my life, it is definitely not.

Perhaps in the future when my personal situation has changed and my financial position has improved, but that's a different problem for a different day.

Monday, January 14, 2019

Short Rant on Crypto TA + some decent Quant Research

One of the problems regarding crypto is that because it's so nascent, people are struggling to (1) understand wtf it is and (2) develop a logical framework to evaluate it.

You'll see that many people QUICKLY come to the conclusion that it is worthless because there is no valuation framework. *snorts*

Well, I can see why a lot of people have this misunderstanding. They are reading trashy clickbait news articles or reading sarcastic tweets by pseudo-anonymous twitter accounts (like mine).

Most of the "analysis" on cryptocurrency is unfortunately, technical analysis, and.... ba dum tss


Whoa whoa whoa whoa. Stop right there, chartist.

WHY do I say that TA in crypto is useless?

Well, firstly, there is no universal base. Unlike stocks, which are priced in the local currency that it trades on, cryptocurrency is traded against every fiat imaginable, as well as OTHER cryptocurrencies. Result? There are 100s of charts for the same asset. So if you think that TA works through self fulfilling prophecies, how can this be true if everyone is looking at different charts? Every indicator would be off-sync from another chart based in a different currency.

Next reason, and this is probably more important - except for the top few cryptocurrencies, majority of cryptocurrencies are trading on paper thin volumes. This means that a single person can pump in $10,000 and market buy to eat the orders in the order book and boom the crypto suddenly spikes a million or more in marketcap.

This is related to another point, which is fake volume. A lot of exchanges have fake volume, and a lot of the data aggregators just lift off the printed volume that exchanges claim that they are doing (but are not), and this screws up a lot of data.

Now, knowing that (1) there is no single chart that everyone uses, (2) volumes and order books are paper thin because (3) a lot of volume is actually faked, you can EASILY come to the conclusion that technical analysis in crypto is - at best - worthless.

And at worst? It's pure manipulation by "painters". These are people that pull up the most popular base currency charts that people are using, and just "paint" technical analysis patterns. They will "paint" a bullish pattern, let it emerge, AND THEN START DUMPING INTO THE VOLUME. And why do they do that? Well, I said it before, actual legit trading volume can be paper thin. They actually need to induce buying from other people so that they can sell. Of course, this also works vice versa if they want to buy - just paint a "bearish" pattern, and then start buying from people who THINK that it is going to dump.

Anyway, I just wanted to say how extremely worthless and trash technical analysis is for crypto. If you believe in it and it works for you? Great, continue what you do and power to you man. For other people, well, now you know why your TA doesn't work on crypto like how it works on other assets.

And that nicely brings me to the second part of my title: some decent quant research.

I actually just stumbled upon this myself. I gave it a good speed read and its of very good quality. For people looking for some actual logical ways to approach crypto, I think these 2 pieces by the same people are a very good start.

The first is "The State of Bitcoin", which makes the 360 degree long term case for Bitcoin with some short term analysis.

The second is "Bitcoin Holder Analysis Through Cycles", which is a more technical piece that links chain analysis with price history and mathematics to forecast how the future could play out. As long as you understand what are UTXOs you can give this a read, if not, you might want to understand that term first.

As a new asset class, a lot of people are still struggling to understand crypto. My personal take is that you really need to understand the fundamentals first. Just like how accounting makes for a fantastic base to start fundamental analysis for stocks, understanding cryptocurrencies, how they work and what about them is actually valuable is necessary knowledge to evaluate them fundamentally.

Of course, if you want to use astrology and meme lines to make financial decisions, it is also entirely up to you.

Thursday, January 3, 2019

2019 Here We Go!

Gonna make it quick.

I've been getting a lot of flack lately from everyone about how badly crypto is doing.

Didn't I say to prepare yourself for sickening volatility?
And you'd need to have the big balls and brain to ride out any volatility and hold the right things?

Well, apparently some people took it that crypto is a 100% sure way method to make 100x your money in 1 month or less.

Sorry ladies and gents, this isn't a late night TV infomercial and you're not buying a product from me. There is no returns. No money back guarantee. And above all, there is and was no gun to your head forcing you to go out and buy whatever you did, however you did.

Take ownership and responsibility for your decisions, aite? I don't recall people sending me thank you money when they were up 2-10x late 2017 lol (neither would I ask or accept that). But I hear a lot of whining and grumbling now. Which is fine, since the market is in the shits. But if you're blaming anyone other than yourself, you need to get your head checked.

Anyway, moving on.

I still own crypto.
In fact, during this bear market I've been BOTH trading and buying.
In absolute numbers, the amount of crypto that I own has increased significantly.

Of course, the value of it has been a piece of shit, haha.

I know what I got myself into.

Did I know that the bear market would be so deep and so long? No.
Did I think it was possible? Yes.

If I didn't think it was possible, I would deposit all my crypto into Bitmex and make a 100x long trade and put the stop loss at the price point "where I don't think it'll ever go" and buy out the whole Orchard Road.

That didn't happen, because of course anything is possible.

Do I know people that were "if BTC goes down to $XXXX price, I will cut off my ****"?

Yes, I do know such people. And they are now liquidated. Press F to pay respects.

Anyway the point of this post is 2 things:

1) I still have crypto, I firmly believe in it, and I'm really not worrying and stressing about it much

2) My lack of blogging does not have any special or hidden meaning. If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I'm actually quite active with my tweets and re-tweets.

So anyway guys, I heard stocks are doing bad too. Cheer up, you might be down 10% from ATH, but at least you're not down 90% like us people in crypto, right?

For those still in crypto, remember that this is a long game. All the best peeps.

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Mr. Been "Busy"

Unfortunately, I am not a full-time blogger who gets paid to write content, so yes I am "busy".

Y'all know that I do blog and share and create content for free right? Sorry if I don't meet your daily SGAG content expectations.

Anyway, for the people who are insatiably hungry to hear me drivel on about crypto nonsense, you can find me on Twitter, because even though I am busy, I've one eye on Twitter just to know roughly what's the biggest things going on in crypto.

I'm finding Twitter to be a better platform for me actually, because I can kill 2 birds in 1 stone by educating myself and catching up on the news while concurrently throwing out my thoughts and making specific comments to certain information by commenting on retweets.

I follow nearly 700+ crypto accounts and I retweet the most relevant and interesting (and hopefully correct) tidbits of information that I come across.

I don't block people so I can listen to the full spectrum of nonsense in the space (preventing echo bubbles bias), so I think I provide decent crypto content curation and personal commentary if that's what you're looking for.

Some of you might already know (and some of you have talked to me there already!), but I also frequent Discords of the crypto projects that I am following very closely. At the moment I'm in the Synthetix discord a lot, discussing stablecoin cryptoeconomics and the landscape. As I've said before, stablecoins is one of the most interesting niches of crypto for me. Anyway, feel free to message me if you see me on Discord, but of course also be careful in case of impersonators.