Wednesday, July 1, 2020

"Guide" to getting started in Cryptocurrency

So, I saw this comment on my last post.

I guess with all my flexing, I should offer y'all some help.

From degen senpai to fledgling degen kouhai.

But here's the thing.

I cannot teach you WHAT you should know. 

If I was an asshole, I would tell you to just buy my bags and pump me into retirement. Everyone on twitter knows what I own. It is not a secret. BTC, ETH, SNX, RUNE, CEL. Look, now you know too! But do you know why I hold them? When I will sell them? Why I would sell them? No. You know nothing. And if you copy trade me, you're just a blind man following me in the Labyrinth. What if you lose me? Do you know where to go next? Do you know how to escape before the Minotaur comes and get you? No. You will die. You are not equipped with the skills to do as I do. 

I repeat, I cannot teach you WHAT you should know. 

This is a persistent problem about crypto. The space is moving so fast that whatever knowledge you DOWNLOAD and SEAR into your brain today... will be obsolete in 6 months time. Actually, maybe even 3 months time.

So I cannot teach you WHAT you should know because even for myself, I am constantly STRUGGLING to keep up with the latest information and updates to what I think is relevant.

However, I can tell you that what you need to know is how to learn what to learn.

How to learn.... what to learn?

Sounds confusing and silly, right?

The thing about all investing (and even more true for crypto) is that you need a good strong process. You need to build up from first principles to KNOW in your bones what is right, and what is wrong.

Do you consult your horoscope before you buy stocks? No, cos that shit is useless.

Do you consult your charts before you buy stocks? Lol, touchy subject. Maybe relevant? Maybe not? These are the kind of things that YOU need to decide for yourself.

In crypto, you need to know what is right, and what is wrong. Since from those fundamental pieces of knowledge, your build up your thesis from there. 

And just like in "normal" investing, there is so much to study and learn.

Let me give you an example. Investing Hedgehog thinks that XRP has an actual use case in the future and has a lot of potential. 

From my personal opinion, I think XRP is a scam for brainlets that do not understand what cryptocurrency is, with sub 80 IQ and looking for a quick pump. I also think that is borderline a ponzi scheme. So as you can see, different people have very different takes on what is "right" and what is "wrong".

Who is actually right or wrong? Why? For what reasons? 

If XRP pumps next month, does it mean Hedgehog is right and I'm full of shit and have fundamental misconceptions of how the market works?

You need to KNOW such things yourself. 

If you are spoonfed "news" from crypto news websites or crypto gurus, you're in for some deep shit since most of them are insanely biased or have no damn clue what they are talking about.

Of course, new information can "update" what you thought was right to be wrong. Or what you thought was wrong to now be right. 

The WORST thing you can do is digest bullshit from people who have no clue what they are talking about.

The best thing you can do is learn about the TECHNOLOGY from ground up and reason out for yourself what makes it useful and valuable.

If you just jump into arbitraging or stablecoin yield farming, you'd probably do okay, but you won't be understanding what is going on, and more importantly, WHY these opportunities exist. In such a scenario, you are always a chaser. A follower. A sheep. You just follow the herd. They go where, you go where. If they go to the slaughterhouse? You also just follow lor.

If you want to rush head first into this space, no one is stopping you. Your tuition fees is just losing money instead of spending time to learn. One way or another, you will pay for it. Time or money, your choice.

My recommendation for people looking to join the space is:
- understand what the technology is
- put in $10-$50 to try it out first hand, send it around, store it, retrieve it

And only after you understand what you are messing around with, can you then start investing in the space.

You need to be able to sniff out bullshit and scams on your own. You need to know what makes things valuable, and what makes things trash.

Start from ground up.

Learn how to learn what you need to learn.

Throw out the trash.
Keep the good shit.

It's going to take a while.

But if you're going to do this, and do it right (make money, not give away money), like all other things in life, it requires some time and effort.

And anyone currently doing well in this space can attest to that.

The ones that aren't doing well? They can't tell you WHAT makes crypto valuable, why something is worse than something else, what fundamental reasons will cause their holdings to go up or down.

I'm sorry, but if you are "hodl only", the crypto journey is a long and tough one. It's not that "hodl" is a bad strategy, but it is the lowest and weakest strategy out of all the strategies that exist. Of course, it is also the simplest one. Requires very little thinking and ongoing maintenance. With the "hodl" strategy, the only 2 things you can do is (1) wait and (2) decide what to actually "hodl".

What if you pick absolute dogshit to "hodl"? Then your portfolio is going to zero. No amount of karma, good thoughts and positive vibes will change that.

The person that "hodls" is taking a very singular bet that whatever they are holding will eventually go up in the long term. 

If there was a reliable process and I can tell you WHAT to "hodl" from when to when, then I would also just buy the absolute bottom on leverage, and sell the absolute top to 100% cash.

But I do not know such things. If you can find a guru who can tell you that, I guess, that's good?

But IMO, such a thing does not exist.

Crypto is in constant flux and it requires time and effort to just stay on top of things. That is why I dropped normie investing. Time is a precious and limited resource and I wasn't going to waste it dicking around on stupid ass local stocks or REITs for piss returns. Normie investing had a tremendous opportunity cost for me. But I digress.

I stress again, you need to know "what to know".

Are you a short term trader? Go learn about market structure and "pumpamentals".
Are you an arbitrager? Go learn about exchanges and risk management.
Are you a long term fundamental investor? Go learn about the technical developments and how it affects value accrual.

I cannot tell you what you should know.

I can only point you in the rough direction and warn you of pitfalls and dangers.

There is no formula or step by step guide. When I started my journey, the optimal route for me back then is different for you now.

You just got to know, what you need to know.

If you dare venture into these dangerous lands, tread safely and do not rush into traps.

Good luck out there.

For anyone who has already done their homework and has left the beginner zone, feel free to interact with me on Twitter if you feel lost and in trouble. If you are nearby, I will head over and try to save you from monsters. But if your strategy to survive in this dangerous world is to call for others' assistance at every sign of trouble instead of training yourself to be able to deal with it on your own, you're not going to make it.

For as long as I am on Twitter, I will try my best to aid you and carry you.

But know that I will not be on Twitter or blogging forever. I am at the tail end of my journey. It has been extremely tiring grinding this crypto game for the past few years, but at least I can say that it has been well worth the effort so far - at least, financially.

If I get tired and decide to log out, don't count on me logging back in just to save your ass.

Monday, June 29, 2020

Many of you will regret Crypto

I made a long angsty post about something along these lines, but I decided to scrape it and tone it down a lot.

When I read the various local finblogs, it is apparent that many writers spend countless of hours learning and studying and applying their knowledge to try and make money. Many are bright, but almost all are very hardworking.

Yet the ridiculous thing is that I don't even really try very hard, yet money just falls all around me in the crypto world. I just pick it up.

It is so hard to explain how the risk/rewards are massively skewed in favor of the risk seekers in the crypto space.

And the crypto market is anything BUT efficient, so it is not only easy to make massive gains if you are right, but it is also very easy to actually be right.

The majority of the participants in the crypto space are early 20 males with zero prior investing or financial experience. They do not understand anything when it comes to the markets. It's like gambling against babies.

I personally find that the greatest tragedy in the finblogging community is the outright disgust for anything cryptocurrency related. That kind of groupthink has caused many people to dismiss the amazing opportunities in the space for the past few years.

The cause of that is partly too much mainstream media, partly too much of carrying Uncle Warrens balls. That's just my guess though.

Anyway, this topic is something that riles me up because I have heard and read to no end of it from so many people how the whole cryptocurrency thing is a scam, and how such people shouldn't waste their time and money "gambling" and they should invest in whatever stonks they are punting on so can huat together.


But I appreciate all the pushback I get that YOU CANT MAKE MONEY FROM CRYPTOCURRENCIES because it just fuels my drive to make EVEN MORE MONEY with cryptocurrencies.

I must admit, it is very petty.

I can be a petty man.

But flexing that I made more than a million bucks from bullshit ponzi rat poison internet fake scam money when everyone said I couldn't? That it's not possible?

Well, that gives me a high.

It also makes me grin from ear to ear when people attribute my success to "luck" as well, haha!

Honestly, I don't think I am very intelligent. In fact, I am I painfully aware that there are plenty of people smarter than me. But the one thing I did right, was to dare to look at things from a different perspective.

Talent is hitting a target that no one else can hit.

Genius is hitting a target that no one else can see.

 To big banks with prop trading departments and millions of dollars of that their disposal. To hedge funds with insider connections. To everyone smarter than me and with more resources than me.

I don't have to beat them by competing with them to hit their targets.

I get to beat them by hitting the target that they didn't even bother to look for or understand.

- GMGH July 2017

Monday, June 22, 2020

Thursday, June 11, 2020

Shareable Asset is not a scam

See la, I wrote too candidly in the last post.

Got email from Shareable Asset team.


They sent me 2 helpful links which are probably worth sharing. 1 is their entry in the MAS registry as an FI. The other is an SCMP article that explains about their business.

Like I said before, it is a joke. But you can never be too careful these days. I've signed up for MAS investor alerts since there's so much scamming going on these days.

I appreciate them reaching out to contact me to clarify on certain issues, but...

This is not a "new concept" to me.

This is not some complicated amazing new structure.

The simplest smol brain explanation is that this is a REIT, but for 1 property, and doesn't trade on SGX but instead some other exchange (so.... exit liquidity?)

You might think that this structure is mindblowing, cutting edge and innovate. But is it really though? I beg to differ.

As I mentioned before, I think RealT is SIGNIFICANTLY more advanced in their technology and execution. Their listed properties though? Chicago shit tier houses, but hey, if that's what you want, that's a good way to access it. I am not saying their listings are good. I am just saying that their structure seems much more valuable to me. I own zero fractional real estate of any form, by the way. Even REITs. Absolutely zero.

For me, I think it is VERY appropriate to compare potential fractionalized real estate rental yields with my "savings account" because I am not limited to Singapore banks that pay out piss interest or sub 2% for annual fixed deposits.

Nigh, it would be absolutely stupid if I didn't compare across different investment vehicles because from where I stand, my available option is not only LOWER RISK, but also HIGHER RETURN.

My liquid "risk-free" cost of CASH is in fact 8% flat as the lower bound.
The upper bound of my fiat yield is in the low 20s%..

So I can eat ~20% APR a year while I take nearly no volatility risks, but I assume other risks like smart contract risks or custodial risks (depending if I go through decentralized or centralized platforms to access those yields)

You are right, they are different investment products. But please don't feel bad that I am saying I wouldn't invest in your version of tokenized real estate. I wouldn't invest in other fractional real estate either. Or traditional bonds or stocks either. I am a very fair man. 

Say if you're a normie tradfi SGX stock-bond boi and think crypto is a ponzi. Then sure, this is an interesting alternative investment - if you can secure your exit liquidity (which is not really addressed still)

But say you are G and you have access to 8-20+% yields on cash, and even more insane and degen APR when you trade away safety and take on risks (and returns). How is 12% a year with foggy exit liquidity even an option worth considering?

Oh, by the way, I just calculated the XIRR of my crypto portfolio.

I am outperforming the likes of Buffet, Lynch (my idol) and Soros.

By a large margin. 

Of course my period is significantly shorter, but hey, this is my blog and I get to window dress stuff to make me look good.

And yeah, reminder, crypto is dangerous af. But I also suppose that is also why it is so lucrative.

Anyway, git gud normies.

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Shareable Assets? Sounds like a scam, bro

Title inspired by the latest post by 3Fs.

Obviously, this is a joke.

I feel like I have to explicitly say it's a joke because a lot of people are very stupid these days.

1) I have never heard of SA until I read his post
2) I have never researched about SA until I read his post
3) I actually do NOT have an opinion whether SA is legit or not

It was just a clickbait title, and since you are here, consider yourself master baited. Kek.

As the kind Unintelligent Nerd pointed out to me on twitter, this concept is really not different at all from RealT, which also does fractional tokenized real estate.

I am not familiar with Shareable Assets (like I said, I literally just read about it), but I am however familiar with RealT because I have a real life friend that went through the whole process to buy some tokenized real estate from them.

So, some key things about RealT :

- they actually send you the ownership token to your blockchain address
- they pay out interest in USD stablecoin... DAILY
- there is an exchange for you to SELL or BUY these tokens

While many of you income investors are salivating at the DAILY payouts and are now trying to calculate how much you need to invest to get "free" caipng everyday, the more important point is actually the last point.

The point about an exchange for you to sell or buy these tokens.

Many people will be gungho to enter these investments. Woohoo, yay! 12% annual yield paid out daily! And that is great, as long as you continue to hold.

But now, how do you exit your investment? Who do you sell to? Who is going to buy it back? At what price? At what fee? At what spread? How much can they buy back from you?

And that my dear readers, is the big BIG BIG BIG overlooked situation of tokenized assets. You NEED exit liquidity, and who is going to provide that to you, and how much will they charge?

Giving people money and getting in is never a problem. It is getting out with your money that is always the problem.

RealT managed to "solve" this problem by bootstrapping a liquidity pool into a permissionless crypto exchange and "locking" the token transfers to only approved address to still comply with KYC/AML regulations.

If all that is too much crypto mumbo jumbo to you, it just means that the user will always have a secondary market which is different from the issuer to increase or reduce their exposure.

So anyway, my thoughts?

Cute attempt, honestly, but this is not new, not novel, and no where near the cutting edge where this type of business model already exists and has actually progressed way beyond the form that SA is taking on right now.

Mind you, I have been talking purely from the TECHNICAL side of things as a "blockchain"-using tech company.

Is overseas real estate into specific properties even a good investment? That's another question that you need to answer for yourself.

Personally, I do see it as a noble attempt to basically organize kampung style group property investments. However, like I said, compared to the technology that exists out there, I find it lacking with not much information on DIVESTMENT.

If you can only enter but cannot exit.... mmm, might be an issue, lol.

In all honesty, I view this as insufficiently rewarding for the level of risks I would be taking. Why take on real estate asset risk in the form of tokenized fractional ownership for a pathetic 12% APR?

You can just sit in USD stablecoins and do absolutely nothing for 8-9% APR.

If you actually genuinely think that taking on global real estate at 12% is a good deal over stablecoin lending with fully collateralized asset loans at 8%, then you might actually have an EXTREMELY deficit IQ.

By the way, that is my big alpha leak. Why take on equity risks when you can have a savings account with no lock up earning 8%?

Same reason why everyone has full-life insurance. They "heard" that it is the "right things to do".

I just shake my head.

It bewilders me that stock investors are so willing to seek risk in weird tickers or alternative investments, but refuse to go near cryptocurrency "because Warren Buffet".

Anyway, obviously, I will not be considering SA. Cute, but no dice for me.

You? Use your own brain and decide for yourself.

PS. I have to disclaim again that (1) I do not hold any RealT tokens, (2) I am not invested in the success and failure of RealT in any way, (3) neither am I invested in the success and failure of Shareable Asset in any way, and (4) this is just my opinion about the situation. Sorry I have to keep saying this, but I worry that some of you read too much in between the lines, you know?