Tuesday, September 8, 2020

House Cleaning

Might be sudden, but surprise!

I decided to nuke all my posts, save my very very first post on this blog. Nice to look back at a post I wrote 7 years ago and nod to my past self and say that, "Yes my past self, I made it and we are millionaires now. Not only just that, but multi-millionaires!"

I have been wanting to brush up opsec a bit, but in the end I just nuked all my previous posts because I am too lazy and busy to vet through them one by one at this time.

If there are any particular posts that you would like me to republish, let me know and I'll see if I can put it back up.

Other than that, I am really too busy making absolutely ridiculous amounts of money in the crypto world.

When the money printing dies down and the markets become more calm, I'll likely go back to my old posts and republish some of my favourite posts.

I do not have to prove anything or try to convince you. You can choose to believe me or not. Your prerogative. Those of you in the markets are the "few that understand" are probably laughing all the way to the bank with the insanity of the markets now. Enjoy it while it lasts. I wish you guys all the best. Remember to stay safe and bank profits.

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

GMGH's Crypto Starter Pack v3.0

I think there's actually a lot of people already interested in the crypto space and are just not sure how to start, or are getting interested with the recent headlines on price, so here's my refreshed v3.0 starter pack to hopefully help out a bit, since my last post was last 2017 and a lot of things have changed since then.

Password Manager

Essential for enhanced security since you will be solely in charge of managing your digital assets.

I shill Dashlane a lot, but I don't need to include a ref link because I've referred so many family and friends to use it, that I have free membership up to their max, which is til 2023, lol. But if you want to use my ref link, it's on the right sidebar.

I have heard that Lastpass or 1Password are good too.

Honestly, really doesn't matter that much, as long as you have one.

2FA

You can use Authy or Google Authenticator.

You should NEVER use SMS 2FA because your telcom can be attacked through identity impersonation or even a rouge employee.

Use one of the above, or something similar.

SGD/USD Bank

Since most exchanges accept deposits in USD, the question is how do you get SGD to USD to enter, and later USD back to SGD to exit?

Personally, I use DBS and DBS Remit, but basically any bank with USD sending and receiving capabilities will work.


Fiat-Crypto Exchange

There's a ton that you can choose from, but I can only speak for the exchanges that I have used myself which I personally found to be pleasant and fuss-free.

Binance.sg (SGD) (ref link for bonus $20 SGD after first $100 traded)
Coinhako (SGD)
Gemini (USD)
Bitstamp (USD)

USD Stablecoin Tokenizers

With the rise and popularity of stablecoins, an alternative route of sending SGD as USD to crypto-fiat exchanges is to actually send SGD to USD tokenizers, and generate a stablecoin, which you can send to the crypto-crypto exchanges for trading instead, or to use as deposits for lending platforms or DEX lending.

I think Circle (USDC) is the great. Paxos (PAX and BUSD) are good too, while Trust (TUSD) is the least popular. I have accounts with all of them, but that is because I am a crypto power user.

Crypto-Crypto Exchange

Goes without saying that the hands-down best crypto-crypto exchange is Binance. From then onwards, it really depends what kind of niche altcoins you want to trade at. I find both Kucoin and Bittrex to be legit, smaller exchanges. My referral link for Binance gives you back 20% rebates on all your trading fees (the maximum possible kickback)

However, a new breed of decentralized exchanges are becoming very popular, but requires high level understanding and familiarity of using Ethereum. Instead of directly using the different individual decentralized exchanges, I'd recommending using a trade and liquidity aggregator (something like skyscanner or agoda lol) to source the best price for trades.

1inch.exchange, DEX.ag and Paraswap are your best choices for Ethereum liquidity aggregators.

Crypto Lending / Interest Earning

One of the biggest new sectors that have emerged but was non-existent in the previous bull market (for regular people, anyway) is the existence of crypto lending (and borrowing) platforms.

For the custodial options, obviously you know that I have a massively strong preference for BlockFi and have myself put in a sizeable amount of crypto assets there. Not only do they support earning interest in BTC and ETH, but they also support USDC, so you can earn 8.6% pa on USD with no restrictions. If that isn't mind-blowing, I don't know what would be.

Other custodial options include Celsius and Nexo. I have also used both, and I believe that both are fine, although I have a better impression of Celsius, while Nexo has a nicer interface,

For non-custodial options, similar to decentralized exchange liquidity aggregators, you should bypass the lending platforms directly and instead use the yield aggregators, which will automatically shift your assets from platform to platform to ensure that you are always earning the best rates.

Idle Finance, iEarn, Staked's RAY are 3 such products in the market now. Topo Finance is in beta and coming out soon.

Hareware Wallet

Once you have a decent amount of money in crypto, you would want to get a hardware wallet.

Get a Ledger or a Trezor. Personally, I have both and have used both. I used to prefer Ledger, but now I prefer Trezor.

I have bought a couple from Pennywise, which is an authorised retailer. You can shop around, there's probably more sellers now.

Closing Thoughts

The crypto place is scary and dangerous.

If humji, please don't do.

If want to do, please use your brain, get yourself educated, and go out and take risks and make the returns.

Don't listen to anyone without identifying their agenda or bias. Even me. For example, I'd prefer if all of you sign up with my BlockFi ref link and swap all your SGD into USDC and just earn 8.6% pa there. That is my obvious bias. But I walk the talk. I have been a customer and depositor for over a year. Yet many people out there be shilling shit that even they wouldn't touch themselves, if not for the perverse incentives for them to shill it.

There's so much bullshit in the space, you need to be able to smell it and cut through it.

Be wholly and fully responsible and walk into every action and decision with eyes wide open.

The crypto place is not for lazy silver spoon crybabies.

I have seen most people in the space get rekt.

Too much greed. Too much risk. Too much trust.

Not enough skepticism. Not enough diligence. Not enough brain.

Just assume that everyone is out to scam you or screw you, and you'd probably be fine.

I even have people impersonating me and trying (and some have been successful) to scam people.

No kumbaya or hand holding in the crypto space. It's a dog eat dog world out there, and it's best to be entering in with a steeled mindset about all the crap and nonsense that goes down in there. It is brutal and ruthless and lawless.

If you are ready and willing to risk it all in the pursuit of glory, suit up, and roll out.


Remember, no one else is watching your back, so stay safe out there, you hear?

Friday, December 12, 2014

10 Legendary Investment Rules From Legendary Investors

I just read this fantastic article by Lance Roberts, which is such a timely reminder.

These guys are all f***ing legendary. I would rather meet anyone of them instead of Taylor Swift. I actually might pass out if I see them!

(Hey, would you look at that! 10/10 guys! Is finance a sexist world or what? Feminists out there be ragin' right now)


Who Where What
Jeffrey Gundlach DoubleLine "The trick is to take risks and be paid for taking those risks, but to take a diversified basket of risks in a portfolio."
Ray Dalio Bridgewater Associates “The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist. They assume that something that was a good investment in the recent past is still a good investment. Typically, high past returns simply imply that an asset has become more expensive and is a poorer, not better, investment.”
Seth Klarman Baupost “Most investors are primarily oriented toward return, how much they can make and pay little attention to risk, how much they can lose.”
Jeremy Grantham GMO “You don’t get rewarded for taking risk; you get rewarded for buying cheap assets. And if the assets you bought got pushed up in price simply because they were risky, then you are not going to be rewarded for taking a risk; you are going to be punished for it.” 
Jesse Livermore - “The speculator’s deadly enemies are: ignorance, greed, fear and hope. All the statute books in the world and all the rule books on all the Exchanges of the earth cannot eliminate these from the human animal….”
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital Management “Rule No. 1:  Most things will prove to be cyclical. – Rule No. 2:  Some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget Rule No. 1.”
James Montier GMO "There is a simple, although not easy alternative [to forecasting]... Buy when an asset is cheap, and sell when an asset gets expensive.... Valuation is the primary determinant of long-term returns, and the closest thing we have to a law of gravity in finance."
George Soros Soros Capital Management “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.
Jason Zweig Wall Street Journal “Regression to the mean is the most powerful law in financial physics:Periods of above-average performance are inevitably followed by below-average returns, and bad times inevitably set the stage for surprisingly good performance.
Howard Marks Oaktree Capital Management The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological.” 

This is of course an ugly ass table if there ever was one, but hell, if I was good at HTML and website editing, the rest of my blog wouldn't look this bad, would it? Anyway, this is definitely a keeper of an article, which is why I'm specifically archiving it in a post on my blog forever! These are timeless quotes, which are gonna be permalinked, just like Bob Farrell's 10 Rules and Jason Zweig's timeless advice.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Jason Zweig: Good Advise Rarely Changes

Jason Zweig is a columnist on the WSJ, and I would argue probably one of the most influential writers in the modern finance world.


The very first finance book I read was the version of "The Intelligent Investor" with his foreward. I am now halfway stuck reading his behavioral finance book called "Your Money & Your Brain", which is a great book about the human aspect of investing. Put aside your calculators and spreadsheet, this book is a great book to understand the less quantitative, but still very important, part of investing.

I was also quite impressed with his interview on WealthTrack with Conseulo Mack. He is very cool and clear headed throughout the interview, which to me, shows that he is totally familiar with all the topics and has firmly given deep thought about them. I quite like this guy.

I was very very pleasantly surprised to stumble upon and read one of his dated articles on WSJ. I think this article is one of the most brutally honest pieces about a guy sincerely trying to impart his wisdom to people who can only better themselves by hearing it. This article is a gem, and I implore anyone, ANYONE looking to reign in their behavioral bias to give his article a full read and perhaps some weekend contemplation.

I am going to pick out my favourite lines from his article:

My job is to write the exact same thing between 50 and 100 times a year in such a way that neither my editors nor my readers will ever think I am repeating myself. That’s because good advice rarely changes, while markets change constantly...
The advice that sounds the best in the short run is always the most dangerous in the long run. Everyone wants the secret, the key, the roadmap to the primrose path that leads to El Dorado: the magical low-risk, high-return investment that can double your money in no time.
... research by the psychologist Paul Andreassen showed many years ago, people who receive frequent news updates on their investments earn lower returns than those who get no news...
From financial history and from my own experience, I long ago concluded that regression to the mean is the most powerful law in financial physics: Periods of above-average performance are inevitably followed by below-average returns, and bad times inevitably set the stage for surprisingly good performance.
My role is also to remind them constantly that knowing what not to do is much more important than what to do. Approximately 99% of the time, the single most important thing investors should do is absolutely nothing.
But this time is never different. History always rhymes. Human nature never changes. You should always become more skeptical of any investment that has recently soared in price, and you should always become more enthusiastic about any asset that has recently fallen in price. That’s what it means to be an investor.
The longer the odds, the greater the obligation to try to beat them. That’s why I keep at it, even though I have profound doubts that most people will ever learn how to be better investors. I never expect everyone to listen; all I ever hope for is to get someone to listen.
In summary: Good advise doesn't change, and reduced to its simplest form, it is essentially: Buy low, sell high. Tune out the market noise, reference past history and look at the long term. If everyone is zigging, think about zagging. Everyone can't all be right together because the market is not a win-win system, it's a negative-sum system.
This is a good and timely reminder to myself to always look at the big picture and not get caught up in the small daily blips when you are long term investor. 
This probably should go up in the hall of fame, along with Bob Farrell's 10 rules, which I think is another set of excellent advice reduced to digestible and actionable bits for the average investor. I hope maybe people might want to consider bookmarking this page, or his article directly, and give it a read through if you're at the crossroads of a major financial decision or choice.

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

When in doubt always refer back to Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules

I was reading ZH again, and I don't know why, but I finally today found out that it is Lance Roberts who comes up with the things to ponder about, which is a segment brought in by ZH which I quite enjoy. I have added them to my blog roll on the sidebar for all our future reading pleasure.

Anyway, while the article itself is pretty interesting, I think his recent 2014 market outlook report just 3 days ago is a very interesting read. Personally, I like his analysis, the way he structures his arguments, as well as his practical and slightly contrarian lean.

However, I think the biggest takeaway for me was what he put in the end of his report, which is just here below.

When in doubt always refer back to Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules:
(link goes to stock charts, which gives some great graphical examples)
  1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time
  2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
  3. There are no new eras -- excesses are never permanent
  4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
  5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
  6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve
  7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names
  8. Bear markets have three stages -- sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
  9. When all the experts and forecasts agree -- something else is going to happen
  10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets

I especially like #4, #6 and his #7 is very similar to the $OEXA200R Chart that I also follow. I'm thinking of making this like my contrarian checklist.

I am going to do a bit of research about the interest rates and it being 4 standard deviations away from it's 50 day moving average. To me, that again feels like a strong contrarian buy for bonds! If my findings are supportive and conclusive, I think that it might signal me to load up on my investment grade bonds to meet my target allocation.