Saturday, April 4, 2020

Buffet Dumps Airlines, Smart SG Investors Buy SIA? + some updates

See for yourself here.

Which is hilarious, because on 7 March I was saying "If you're a Buffet boi, you're probably piling into SIA right now. That was a Saturday and Friday closing price was $7.96.

Comment from Rafalution on 8 March was, "This bear market is just beginning. If you tink SIA is cheap, you've seen nothing yet."

And oh boy was he right.

SIA is back near.... 2 decade lows? If I recall, the last time SIA was trading at this price, it was 1991 or 1992, haha!

But yes, buy airlines cos cheap cheap means good right?


In my opinion, if you are investing on the thesis that this Covid thing will blow over in a few months and everything will go back to normal, I think you would be wrong.

The pandora's box has been finally opened.

Why rent grade A commercial office space from Commerial REITs when 80% of them can WFH?

There are maybe 50 more examples I can pull out of my ass, but I think you get the drift.

Personally, I look at the SGX stocks and I just feel sick. Almost everything is trash. Perhaps like one of the few things that isn't is Vicom, and it's like a pseudo-monopoly. There is almost nothing listed in Singapore that I feel optimistic about long term.

Don't even need to ask me about the 3 local banks. I'm a crypto person, you think I give a shit about banks? I got more wealth in my public doxxed Ethereum address than my local bank account balances combined, haha.

The 2 telcos? Both have been trending DOWNWARDS since as far back as my 5 year charts can go.

SPH? Dead business model.

With Oil at $30, do I even need to talk about Keppel or Sembcorp?

Don't even get me started on private property, which is absolutely ridiculously overvalued as f***. RIP to a few friends I know that bought private property last year. I hope that you not only have the cashflow, but also the holding power to eventually make that a winning investment. If you had asked me my opinion about it, I would've told you straight out flat that I think it is a shitty investment. But oh well, what's done is done. Property investors all over the world getting hit from being overleveraged and all the rental repayment issues. You think the trend of globally re-locating is going to kick back off now that everyone is doing WFH and realizing it is decent enough? I hope you guys can find nice ang moh tenants to rent to in 2021 and beyond.

Anyway, don't be too surprised. I've always been bearish, haven't I? I think you can go look back at all my posts over the years, I'm quite the pessimist.

Anyway, good luck out there tradfi guys.

For me, I am still hustling in crypto. Crypto "Black Thursday" was a fun event for me, when the market dropped 50% and I was getting paid to liquidate people. Sure, my portfolio took a hit, but I also buffered that drop by earning 5 figs from all the liquidations.

I think my portfolio has passed it's local low and I am honestly looking forward to a lot of developments for the projects that I am deeply invested in. I am very very optimistic for the rest of 2020 and particularly 2021.

And to all those wondering, yes, I still am a crypto millionaire.

And no, I will not buy your shitty SGX-listed stocks. Kek.

Friday, March 27, 2020

Supply Shock in Precious Metals Markets

I know all of you not only hate cryptocurrencies, but also hate precious metals like Gold and Silver.

Funny, cos that's the 2 asset classes I pretty much specialize in, lol.

Anyway, the precious metal markets are going nuts these days. You wouldn't be able to tell from the charts though.

The charts print the "market price", which is a very different price from the "physical price".

The physical price is what you would actually pay to hold it in your hands and take it back home.

From vague memory, the "physical premiums" are as follows:

Gold coins 1oz - 3-4%
Gold bars 100g - 2-3%
Gold bars 1kg - <2%

Silver coins 1oz - 15-20%
Silver bars 1kg - 10-15%

Well, now things are getting crazy because of the supply shock.

Is it due to mints closing? Transportation grid locks or halts? Rehypothetication (1 bar with multiple onwers booking it as theirs) blowing up?

Who knows. I sure as hell don't.

But what I do know is that this has led to physical premiums soaring through the roof.

Silver coins are going at MINIMUM 60% premium over market prices, to 80% for the coveted American Eagles.

Gold coins are going for 7-15% depending on their mint, and this is on top gold spot prices being at ALL TIME HIGHS in SGD.

Hey, do you guys know anyone that is sitting on a ton of Gold and Silver?

Oh wait. I am. HAHA.

You can look back at my posts, but I roughly bought all my silver between $20-25 SGD per oz and all my gold between $1600-1800 SGD.

If I could book the premiums that are happening now, that would mean my WORST purchase returns from Silver is 50%+ and for Gold is 40%+.

My best would be 90% for silver and 60% for gold.

And all while stocks are still down ~40% across the board. With more probably pain to come.

I might go over to my secret hiding spot now with my shovel and dig up my precious metals now.

Yo ho ho.

Yes and might I remind you that I am that stupid crazy person that invests into no cash flow assets lmao.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Safe, Strategically Leveraged Strategies?

One of the hot trends in the recent years specifically targeted at HNWI who made their wealth outside of finance is to get leverage from their private banking to make leveraged investments into dividend stocks, REITs and even corporate bonds ($250,000 lot size).

Private banking really appeals to the ego of their clients, that they are so smart and wise to be so rich, so OBVIOUSLY they know that they can get even more gains taking on more risks.

I have also been hearing of people taking out personal loans to "buy the blood".

I am not here to tell you what is right or wrong, but I will say that such strategies are risky and if you do not know what you are doing, the risks of massive financial ruin is absolutely real.

Ironically, it is us plebians who do not have access to private banking facilities or want to take on extra credit that might come out of the other side unscathed, mainly because we are not even allowed access / would not even be able to imagine such risky strategies.

At the end of the day, it is your risk, your rewards. Your choice, your actions, your consequences.

Just know that mathematically speaking, leverage is a double edged sword and it slices both up AND DOWN.

If you do not know what you are doing, I strongly suggest to PAUSE, educate yourself, then make your decision.

I'm not saying not to do it. But I am saying that you should walk in with both eyes open and ready to face the dangers of what you are undertaking.

I cry over no leveraged dead men.

Monday, March 23, 2020

Some Quick Thoughts

Okay, I'll stop being a bitch and just vomit out what is on my mind.

1) The infection numbers are going to explode in the USA. Gonna overtake China by the end of the week if testing capabilities isn't bottlenecked. Should hit past 1M by the end of April.

2) People are grossing and massively underestimating (a) how quickly this issue will resolve itself and (b) the economic impacts of it directly and (c) the future downstream impact as society itself changes.

3) This "crash" is NOT a buying opportunity YET. It is just 1 month into this bear market ffs!

4) A lot of business models are shit and most stuff on the SGX are pure trash that should really be cleansed out by an economic recession, even some of the blue chips. Buying them "because they are cheap" but without consideration how they will operate profitably and with an edge 5-10 years down the road will be a mistake that many will make.

5) On the other hand, there are certain sectors that will likely completely rebound when this whole crisis is over and will be hitting pre-COVID numbers in 2022 and beyond. Those are the kind of things that you'd want to be in.

6) Business environment will change rapidly and I think a lot of the commercial office space REITs are gonna get smashed hard and may never fully recover as BCP is showing that companies might not really need to rent AAA office space for.... whatever reasons they have.

7) USDSGD might go well up to 1.6 or 1.8

8) Opportunity will be for anyone that has NOT already started panic buying the "crash" and has ammo to buy the blood when the bad news finally peak.

9) When the time comes, consider using CPFIS if you have got that liquidity to spare.

10) Probably a terrible idea to be buying private property as an investment - massive liquidity requirements, terrible friction of both time and cost to exit, tiring as an asset to make it productive. Unless you're an expert and are particularly looking to flip it eventually for the capital gains, I doubt that it would make sense to looking for firesale property unless you do have prior expertise and its a market you are intimately familiar with. To expand - it's not that it is a bad market, but you'd probably get bested by the industry insiders with the liquidity to make the best moves.

I have more things on my mind, but I think the main points are that (a) FX risks is not being managed, (b) this is way too early in the crash to be buying stuff and (c) liquidity is king and will be what allows to even enter opportunities later.

Personally, I've managed (a) and (c) by keeping a sizable chunk of USD in BlockFi and just eating 8.6% pa. Even if we were in a bull market, eating 8.6% by sitting in cash is a pretty freaking good deal. It is an even more amazing deal in a bear market and a strengthening dollar. Just something to keep in mind.

When the time comes, I am prepared to either (a) YOLO even more into crypto or (b) yoink back out my USD from BlockFi back to my local bank account in SGD and start buying the local blood.

If REITs on average aren't pushing 10%++++ on pre-COVID earnings, I'm not even gonna bat an eyelid, haha.

Good luck out there people, as your favorite Uncle Warren loves to say, it is finally time to see who's been out there swimming naked.

How Them REITs doing?

Lol just wanted to shit on everyone about that, kek.

Remember, it is never a loss, unless you sell!

Go to $0 also not a loss, unless you sell!

As long as you can collect fat juicy dividends, who cares, am I right?

Tell yourself, it's only the income that matters, not the capital value!

Capital gains? Naw
Dividends? Oh yes please!

Total returns? What the hell is that?

Good luck to everyone engaging in "passive income investing"!