Sunday, May 26, 2019

Don't you just love Negative Rates?



What is an Inverted Yield Curve?


"Historically, inversions of the yield curve have preceded many of the U.S. recessions. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as an accurate forecast of the turning points of the business cycle."

When you lend money to the government for 30 years, you get back negative returns.

Just let that sink into your brain for a bit.

But don't mind me, I'm just a cuckoo crypto person.

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Crypto HIGH YIELD USD Savings Accounts?

I'll be quick, so less story and talk cock from me.

In crypto, there are things called "Stablecoins".

They are called stablecoins because, obviously, they are SUPPOSED to be stable to that thing that they are tracking.

Why they exist. How they exist. Out of today's scope, please do own reading.

Stablecoins exist in a lot of forms, but most commonly in USD.

For USD, there are quite a few stablecoins. To name the top few:
USDT
TUSD
USDC
PAX
SDUSD
USDS
DAI
sUSD
NUSD
etc, etc.

Now, with these stablecoins, you can earn anywhere between 6-15% APR on them. With no lock up. Interests are usually calculated daily.

Why they can pay interest. How they can pay interest. Out of today's scope, please do own reading.

But yes, the rate, is, ridiculous.

I know, that's why I'm sharing it.

Nexo does 6.5% APR for most stablecoins.
Celsius does 7.1% non-compounded for a handful as well.
Dapps like Nuo, dydx and Compound have floating rates between 6-15% APR.

Okay, what's the risks? Let's hear it.

The biggest risk is user stupidity - ie losing your private keys, sending to wrong address, withdrawing to wrong address etc etc. Just general lack of blockchain knowledge and experience interacting with it.

On top of that, the risks are the 3rd parties involved, which are (1) the stablecoin issuer and (2) the service giving you the "interest".

The next risk is how "safe" are they? Maybe the smart contracts have a vulnerability? Maybe the collateral given to the services are illiquid or cannot be sold to realize its appraised value?

There are quite a bit of risks involved, I will say that.

But, everything in life got risk. You walk across the road also got risk car kill you. You just need to evaluate the likelihood of it and if its worth the risk.

Personally, for the last few months, I've deposited some stablecoins into one of those providers and I have been earning ~14% APR.

So 14% APR in USD. Heck, if I wasn't deeply involved in crypto and targetting triple digit returns, I'd cash out my entire traditional portfolio (what I had back then) and dump it all into stablecoins and eat the yield.

I wouldn't be surprised if a simple crypto USD lending portfolio will massively outperform any fixed income fund, and half of equity funds.

Anyway, just wanted to share. This seems like something less radical that some people could accept.

Do your own homework though. All the best, crypto is wild. Okay, back to Twitter I go.

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Crypto: Educated Criticism or Professional Larper?

"If you don’t understand how fiat money works, you’re not qualified to judge whether cryptocurrency will be successful or not, period."


And that's the gist of this article, which I fully agree.

People that I've talked to that has pushed back hard against crypto will usually give the same arguments that people were already talking about in 2012.
"Something so volatile cannot be money."

"People will not use it."

"Governments will not allow it."

Tell this to anyone who is deeply involved in crypto right now, they'd probably snort.

Most people cannot understand the concept of money, and worse, confuse and think that FIAT money is the definition of money.

The reason why most people are not convinced by cryptocurrency is simply because they are either accidentally or willfully ignorant about fiat money.

You're telling me that they are actually people that exist who understand fractional reserve banking, debt, what is fiat money and government money printing, BUT yet they don't see the value of Bitcoin / cryptocurrencies?

LOL.

I call bull - f***ing - shit.

People simply do not understand fiat currencies. Most people have never seen a chart on their own local currency fiat money supply.

I wanted to show the M3 of various countries, but honestly, who gives a shit about facts these days, amirite? As if me showing you blatant, unchecked money printing is going to change your mind. You'd probably think that it's good, since it supports asset prices, heh.

Anyway, the reason for me to write today's blog post is to try to convince anyone with an open mind about the future of cryptocurrencies.

The article is an excellent one and honestly, just give it a read.

Here is my favourite excerpt:

"Understand that the success of the system is contingent on an unwavering belief that throughout history innovation has always disrupted what currently exists.

 If a system is better, exponentially so, then nothing will ever be able to stand in the way of progress. For the same reason, Google destroyed Yahoo, and Facebook vanquished MySpace, Bitcoin and Ethereum will destroy money.

 In the same way Amazon has brutalized physical retail, Cryptocurrency will eradicate banks. If you don’t see this coming you aren’t paying attention."

And with that, my shill is over. This post was initially 3x longer, but I trimmed it down substantially so that things are delivered in a short, sweet, package.

All the best out there people. I'll be watching you plebs from the Citadel.

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Bitcoin has higher yield than every single Swiss, German, Japanese Govt Bond

Makes you wonder, doesn't it?


Sunday, May 12, 2019

G, should I buy back crypto?

Hello my intelligent and astute readers of my dying blog.

I hope those of you that follow my twitter are amused but also educated by the content that I pump out.

Anyway, just want to say, wew look at crypto.


For context of those tweet above, see the chart below.



I roughly bought in at $104 in Feb and now we're sitting at $195.

Quick math gives you 87% ROI in slightly over 3 months.

Well of course anything that pumps so hard and so fast is probably due for a pullback. But then again, this is crypto, which is coming out of a year long -90% bear market, works on an accelerated timeline, 24/7, with margin traders. Before you know it, the pullback is already bought and we're making the next leg up, and bottom catchers are left chasing. Doesn't matter though, I'm comfortably long after bringing down the average prices of my purchases since the last cycle.

Btw, when I say I bought boatloads. I bought B O A T L O A D S of ETH at that price.

Saying I bought hundreds of ETH, would actually be literally true.


Moving forward as the market starts to draw in the new wave of traders and retail speculators, I think we'll see things start to get very spicy again. (read, VOLATILE, and NOT parabolic ascension to the moon)

Here's a video for you all to enjoy.


Given the fast nature of crypto, I have decided to use my twitter account as my main. However, I do plan to periodically make blog posts here for longer threads and also recaps on how the market is going.

As always, crypto is dangerous af. If you have no idea what you're doing, you're just my next meal out there. All the best to everyone, even all the crypto skeptics.