Thursday, May 15, 2014

Nostramoney Mid May

When is the market going to finally crack?

I've made money, I've lost money, I've pretty much haven't gone anywhere the whole year! Sad to say, but investing can truly have it's stints of absolute boring moments. I suppose its only exciting when everything is falling apart and there's good deals everywhere!

I still stand by my call that the US and global markets are no where near recovery, and are more likely due for a recession than economic acceleration! I've still extremely light on equities. If nothing happens by Q1 2015, then I have to say, my thesis has been wrong.

The STI has been side winding for the past few years, and I don't think because it's consolidating before it takes off. I think Asian investors are a lot more conservative and we'll be starting to see players take some winnings off the table soon too. No economy keeps going without any hicks. Similar call, looking for the bottom end of 2015.

Gold has been acting quite according to plan I feel. It did drop below 1275 and tag 1270, but it more like a very strong base to me instead. I've been buying on dips, miners and the mutual fund. However, I've also dabbled a bit into the physical through BullionStar and I will likely be adding physical on every dip. With the Silver Fix out of the story and the Gold Fix ending soon, I believe that the natural price discovery is going to lead itself much much higher. Paper gold claims will of course increase in value, but physical will be where it is all at. Not the most exciting thing in the world, but 1g on every pullback every month or so and it adds up to a nice troy oz!

I fully expect gold to get smashed in the face soon though once the stock market goes into free fall mode. Gold will be selling off to finance all the margin calls, but I'll be stacking physical and CFDs every time it finds support. That's hopefully the game plan.

Anyway, shorting and leveraging is definitely not for everything. It's one thing to craft a beautiful and seemingly logical thesis, it's another to trade with it in mind and make money. The markets and tough and this psychological game isn't for everybody.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Observe the house rules.