Sunday, March 8, 2015

Even A Broken Clock Is Right Twice A Day

And even a bear is right every decade. Damnit.
With a focus on the US, the scene is set for such sharp declines. Sentiment, allocations, leverage, valuations, money flows and positing are all flagging a major top. The dollar and oil have severely dented the earnings picture. Economic surprises and leading indicators have both moved sharply negative.- John Hampson
I've been blowing and blowing the same trumpet over and over and over again, my mouth is getting very tired, but I will not give up and I will persevere.

John Hampson from Solar Cycles writes the best articles that very appropriately covers many of the indicators that the media conveniently glosses over.

When stocks go up, the media say, "Momentum, buy what's going up, DUH!"
When stocks go down, the media say, "Contrarian, buy what's cheap, DUH!"

I won't bore you with a recap of all the things that he covers in his article, but it is my very strong personal belief that we are in the tops of the stock market. When the SHTF, it's going to be... a bit crazy. My only hope is that I am not only smart enough to see it when it happens, but brave enough to once again stick to my convictions and guns and short the shit out of it. Many people disagree with the idea of shorting, but screw that, I'm not a normal person. Clearly. Some screws are definitely off in this head of mine. Do what everyone else is doing and you end up like everyone else. That is not a very hard conclusion to draw. Do what is crazy and get crazy results. It has been a very painful experience for me so far, but good thing for risk management, or else I'll be out on the streets selling my backside. So I guess as wrong as I have been, I haven't been absolutely stupid.

Anyway, decided not to talk so much today because I want to continue my readings. I am devouring my friend's RES notes. Hopefully I can finish everything by next week. I am waiting for my copy of Property Soul's No BS Guide to Property Investing. I read some reviews by some local bloggers and it looked very good. I am super excited for my copy to arrive and to read it too.

So many things to do, so little time!

4 comments:

  1. Checked out that solar cycles blog... The sun and Earth's magnetic field affect the performance of stocks and commodities?? Sounds like voodoo to me. The link you posted does use much more sane indicators and charts though.

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    1. Hey J,

      Yeah, I'm very skeptical of sun spots, magnetism and lunar phases as well, so I gloss over those points. It is interesting to see how they have been useful previously, but I take the whole thing with a pinch of salt.

      The other indicators and charts are what I look at, much less crazy, I know :)

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  2. Hey, besides sun spots, there's also astronomical charts to observe. Heard of Bradley turn points? Go read about them :)

    It might be a little more convincing if you compare the charts of major index with the sun spots cycles Haha! Sometimes science needs to catch up, but I'm not sure if this is bullshit or anything else. Just keeping an open mind here :)

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    1. Hi LP,

      Yes, I have heard about Bradley turning points, but they aren't mentioned as much as sunspots and lunar cycles! Will explore deeper. I just find it hard to digest the correlation of astrological events to investor behaviour, but that's why I still read such things from time to time, with a pinch of salt, haha!

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