Friday, October 2, 2015

[STI Statistics] September 2015

Hi all, this is my monthly post analyzing the STI.

As of 30 September 2015

STI Closing Value: 2790.89
P/E Ratio: 11.18
P/B Ratio: 1.13
P/CF Ratio: 9.23
Dividend Yield: 3.4%

Monthly Data Series from 2008

Mean P/E: 12.27
P/E Standard Deviation: 3.06

Mean P/B: 1.45
P/B Standard Deviation: 0.212

% of time when the STI is cheaper based on P/E: 36.03%
% of time when the STI is cheaper based on P/B: 6.37%


The P/E and P/B ratios are finally on the same page regarding the index. Based on P/B, the STI is more than 1SD below its mean. P/E value is finally under 12 after coming off it's high of 14.36 in June 2014. I do believe on hindsight that many global indicators topped in June 2014. The STI is clearly no longer expensive at this point of time. For those investing for the very long term (as you should be), now is a pretty decent time to be making monthly purchases of the STI, though it must be cautioned that it is still very possible to move much lower.

Considering how the index has recently pulled back, I have purchased some lots. I am expecting and prepared for more downside to come.

*Straits Times Index values from Yahoo Finance
** P/E and P/B Ratios from SPDR STI as a proxy

***Data Series 2008 - 2014 from Bloomberg
****Data Series 2014 onwards from SPDR STI as a proxy
*****Probability calculated with

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