Monday, May 22, 2017

The Everything Bubble?

Honestly, I like Mike Maloney a lot. Quite a number of people think he's a shill and just goes on about tin foil hat precious metals stuff so that people will buy his book. I don't think that's true. He has time after time given away his book away at heavily discounts, or even for free. And to be fair, he book is 4.6 stars on Amazon and considered as the only proper book for precious metals investing in the modern world.

Anyway, just watch the video, but of course don't take everything at face value and keep asking yourself - "does this info really prove that it is in a bubble?".

Do I also think that we are experiencing an everything bubble? I don't find all his statistics particularly useful when taken in isolation, but with the context of combining all of them together, it is quite convincing to me.

Mmm, US stocks are overvalued on plenty of metrics...

Bonds require no special chart at all. Short term rates are basically dictated by governments.

Real estate in plenty of places all over the world, particularly Canada and Australia, look very giddy.

Personally, I buy into the tin-foil theory and I refuse to give in to the this time it is different camp. I'm not afraid of missing the boat, I know that there will ALWAYS be another boat.

My portfolio is mostly cash, cash alternatives, low-risk bonds, precious metals, precious metals miners and some stock here and there. I'm starting to look at silly places again... Brazil is back on my radar. I'm still holding onto Russia with 30% unrealized gains. I bought precious metals 2 weeks ago when gold was at USD 1225 and silver was at USD 16.20. I'm pretty happy with my precious metals buy.

Anyway, no rush. I find it really hard to find attractive asset classes or investment ideas to put my money to work. Since inflation has picked up a bit, that's not too good. But on the bright side, at least I'm getting about 2% nominal just sitting around and waiting.

1 comment:

  1. Think he's a bit early; the final blowoff unfolding over 1 year or so. Just a blip for academics and market historians but an eternity for market participants both laymen & professionals. During this time broad-based corrections of 5%-10% will not be unusual. Again just background noise for academics & market historians but end of the world for market participants.


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