Tuesday, August 8, 2017

GMGH Crypto Blackbox Investing

I know a lot of people are curious about "investing in" cryptocurrencies like "the bitcoins" and whatnot, but this is NOT a post about that.

This is instead going to be an introductory post about a group of blackbox investments that I will be doing.

Why is it blackbox? What does that mean?

It's a blackbox because:
- I will not be proving my investment capital
- I will not be naming the actual investments
- I will not be proving the returns from those invesments
- I could make making up the entire thing and you wouldn't know

That means that I only will be listing down the amount of my capital invested, some arbitrary name to call the investment and the returns of those investments.

As far as you, the reader, are concerned, GMGH just put some capital into this blackbox and at the end of the month he shakes it out, counts it, records it, then puts it back in for another month.


Due to the nature of cryptos, I will not be answering most questions about my blackbox investing.

In my blackbox, I have a wide variety of funds within, each invested with a different strategy. To mask the names of the actual investments, I have given them all interesting names - easy for me to identify, yet mysterious but still intuitive enough for readers.

Steady Turtle Fund
Black Wolf Fund 1
Black Wolf Fund 2
Black Wolf Fund 3
Green Angry Kraken Fund 1
Green Angry Kraken Fund 2
Blue Crazy Dragon Fund
White Crazy Dragon Fund

As of now, only half of my funds are up and running, but I am hoping to have them all up and running by the end of Aug so I that I can officially start reporting monthly stats with all the funds running once 1st Sep comes. However, if I am unable to get into my investments at that point of time, I will just release the stats with those unfunded funds being dormant until they start running. I'd prefer nice monthly stats, but I've realized that a lot of capital will be moving in and around, so as much as I'd like to keep things simple and neat, I will not be doing that and forfeit potentially better returns by not re-balanacing and re-allocating my portfolio.

Right now my focus will be on getting into positions and to come up with a good tracking spreadsheet for me to track my portfolio returns, and also to create the censored version that I will be publishing every month, as long as it is profitable and it is of interest to people.

What kind of returns am I hoping for and expecting? Honestly, that is a hard question to answer. 

As this is cryptos, a lot of my invest profit/loss would actually come from "foreign exchange", since the crypto/SGD rate is in a constant flux. I cannot even begin to predict that, but it is in my view that foreign exchange will be a tailwind to the blackbox's profts.

However, in terms of crypto itself, I am looking at a wide possible range of returns, somewhere between 10% - 50%. My estimates are actually somewhere in the 30% range, but I think a conservative target is 20%.

Anyway, this is like asking a fund manager at the start of the year to predict his year end returns. Who knows, right?

As always, I would like to warn people who are not familiar with crypto that there are a lot of risks involved in crypto investing. Even all the investments in my blackbox are full of risks too. However, I am totally prepared for a 100% loss in my entire portfolio. Crypto is risky and dangerous, tread lightly and at your own risk.

3 comments:

  1. Thanks for sharing this. This will be my National day priority read.

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    Replies
    1. Np Kyith. I didn't really reveal much usable information though. If you do have any crypto questions, feel free to send a mail my way!

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  2. Awesome article! I like it. Hats off to you for such a wonderful sharing. I have bookmarked this post to come back and to share with my friends.

    Foreign Currency Exchange

    ReplyDelete

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