Saturday, December 30, 2017

Stupid Money is Still Money

This is actually a re-write of my article that I was going to publish. XRP has blown up from $0.25 at the START OF DECEMBER 2017 to a mind numbing $2.35 as I type this out right now.

For all those people thinking that buying XRP is investing in Ripple and you get to invest in the future infrastructure that all the banks are going to use! It is not. Bought it because "Coinbase will list it"? Extremely unlikely. People will still believe so, because, plebs.

But then again, I realised that almost NONE of the new people coming into crypto understand anything about crypto or do their own due diligence, much less the technical aspects about many things under the hood. All that matters is that some YouTuber talked about it in his "Hottest Crypto for 2018" video.

Who cares about the technology if you can make money?

And sure enough, Ripple delivered.

Ripple did a 9x from the start of December.
Yes, +900%.
In a month.
(Lol, I can never go back to stocks.)

But, it's still a centralized, pre-mined shitcoin though.

You want a centralized, pre-mined shitcoin? You get Ripple.
You want a crypto that can be frozen from you because someone doesn't like you? You get Ripple.

You want a decentralized crypto that no government, bank or single party can take over the network?
You want a crypto that cannot be seized or stopped?
You want a crypto where the creators don't own 60% of the supply?

Don't get Ripple.

There are plenty of decentralized, fairly distributed, non-shitcoins which are fast and cheap.

By the way, you can still (yes, still) probably make tons of money owning shitcoins. I even said it before here:

"The sad part about that whole list above is that they are all probably going to go higher. Do not take higher price to equal legitimacy. Metrics like transactions, new addresses and development are better indicators in my opinion.
Don't get me wrong, you CAN make money with these shitcoins. But I have personal issues with them on technical and/or ideological level that I would not even want to own any of the crypto above."

I still do not own any XRP and I have no plans in the future to ever buy any.

At first after seeing the XRP pump, I was salty. But after thinking about it, no, I'm not. I would never own XRP given my knowledge and understanding of crypto.

That said, I should have traded XRP knowing that the (1) low face value, (2) "banks" and (3) Coinbase rumours would get it pumped by the waves of noobs coming in. Unfortunately, my psychology is not that geared towards trading.

Oh well.

Happy holidays folks.

Friday, December 29, 2017

Crypto is full of Regrets

Do not own any crypto? Regret.

Do not own any crypto after listening to your friend shill it years/months ago? Regret.

Convinced about crypto, but waited too long to buy? Regret.

Finally bought crypto, but didn't buy enough? Regret.

Bought enough crypto, but it immediately went down? Regret.

Sold crypto for a profit, but it continues to rise? Regret.

Didn't sell out the crypto at an all time high? Regret.

You trust dear old Uncle Warren about crypto?  Regret.

2017 is ending and you still haven't bought any crypto? Regret.

2018 is coming and you still think crypto is a mirage / ponzi / /fraud / scam / bubble? ________

Well, we don't know the answer for the last one yet, but crypto is full of only one thing, regardless if you missed the opportunity, lost money or even made money, so I guess you can fill in the blank yourself.

2018 is going to be a ballistic year for cryptos. Watch as many non-believers finally cave in and join the ranks. Even if you don't give a damn about the technology, a bro still can gamble with his "fun money" and make a quick buck out of this ponzi tulip bubble before it collapses, can he not? Well, that is what they will be telling themselves to justify dabbling in cryptos, the forbidden fruit that their revered and dear Uncle Warren has forbade.

It's going to boom and it's also going to bust. Where it ends up, nobody knows.

At least it's going to be entertaining though.

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

My 1st Crypto FOMO

I have got to say, I am usually very cool headed and reserved when to comes to investing.

But, I have to admit that I recently did something very dirty that even I am ashamed of: I went to FOMO buy into a crypto at all time highs, AFTER it already went up 3,000% in a month.

I really don't do these kind of things.

But when I came across the project again (first saw it at the start of December), I dived in deeper and I came out blown away at the technology and the progress of it.

Is this something I'll regret? Maybe. Buying into rips at all time highs is definitely a terrible idea.

However, I think that the medium term outlook of this crypto is EXTREMELY rosy. I'm looking at about lowball estimates of 50-150% returns depending on my entry. Realistic estimates is closer to 200-400%. And the ridiculous moon estimate? 800-1300%.

Of course, it's all just crystal balls and hocus pocus, so hey, maybe tomorrow it tanks 50%.

Obviously, I'll be buying the damn dip.

I have never been so bullish on a crypto for such a long time since Ethereum and DigixDAO.

For public safety reasons, I WILL NOT BE DISCLOSING THIS CRYPTO. Of course, for the more experienced crypto vets, I think it would be easy enough for you guys to reference coinmarketcap and find it almost immediately.

However bullish I am fundamentally, nothing goes up in a straight line and too many people are holding onto to too much profits in this. I would expect a dump soon to clear out the people who just bought without actually know what it is and are taking profit from the insane gains, but dips will be bought.

Good luck, stay safe. Welcome to crypto.

Monday, December 25, 2017

Merry Cryptmas Gift!

Merry Cryptmas!

Ehehehe. You know me, I love my stupid, "how is that even related" gifs!

It's Christmas, so sexy elfs dancing! Isn't that acceptable?

Okay Billy Bob, chill out!

Anyway, this Cryptmas I wanted to give away my favourite crypto trade idea.

DigixDAO (DGD)

Unfortunately, I am NOT going to explain or tell you why I think that it is such a fantastic trade idea... yet.

I'm just putting this idea now as a timestamp of my genius (or also how I screwed up big time).

I have mentioned it several times in my blog before though. They are creating a stablecoin based on gold, which is extremely important in the crypto ecosystem.

For full disclosure, I hold a shit ton of it. Like, a lot. A lot. Alot. My biggest holding, more than BTC, more than ETH.

If you think I'm not shilling this for my own benefit and I genuinely want to share what I believe is the best trade of 2017 for 2018, then you should do your own diligence and research into this extremely overlooked crypto. I think that you will find plenty of interesting things about it, especially if you understand what a DAO does and how much DigixDAO has in their DAO. I'm not going to do your homework for you, but my best hint is that reddit has a lot of infomation and previous discussion about it.

I'm planning to share my full investment thesis on DGD hopefully by sometime in mid January.

Anyway, Merry Cryptmas again!

Saturday, December 23, 2017

This Is Why You Buy The Crypto Dip

*removed shitcoins to prevent noobs from buying crap, you are welcome.

Did you buy the dip?

Crypto money. Easiest money in the world.

As a side note, the last time I seriously pulled out my wallet before last night, was 3 weeks ago when ETH was at $436.

$436. 3 weeks ago.

Let that sink in for a moment.

Easy money, but dangerous AF when you realize just how many people bought in before you at way cheaper prices, and they are so balls deep in profits that they couldn't care less about cashing out into a 50% crash because they would still be laughing to the bank.

If you understand the technology and believe how these things will change the world, this is all just short term noise. You already know that it's going to be worth more in the future. The trajectory though, is uncertain. That's why you need big shiny balls of steel to play this game.

Stay safe, keep cool.

Btw, I actually think we can tank further. Even -60% from all time high. If you caught the bottom, you're in fat profit buffers, but I didn't deploy all my capital because I think it might go worse. No worries, I'm still like 95% long crypto, lol.

Friday, December 22, 2017

BREAKING: Bitcoin Crashes -35% in less than a week!




And I'm buying the dip, ehehe.


Because Bitcoin "crashes" every quarter. And its totally and perfectly normal behaviour. As per my previous post, let me update it a bit:

Bitcoin Crashes
Jun 16: -41%
Jan 17: -37%
Mar 17: -31%
May 17: -33%
Jun 17: -39%
Aug 17: -20%
Sep 17: -40% 
Dec 17: -35% (as of now)

Bitcoin Prices
30 Jun 16: $636
31 Jan 17: $970
28 Mar 17: $1,195
31 May 17: $2,303
30 Jun 17: $2,455
31 Aug 17: $4,743
30 Sep 17: $4,388
31 Dec 17: ?

Can it drop further? Of course it can. Another 15% drop from where we currently are sitting at can be totally expected. Deeper than that though would be rather interesting and get my attention. Anyway, I will continue buying it as we go lower and lower. Because I'm just stupid that way. 

Please for the love of your own money, DO NOT PLAY WITH CRYPTOS IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND IT.

Stephen Baldwin understand Cryptos better than you

The Baldwins are as crazy as they come, but Stephen says some really good stuff here.

What a lot of people are being confused about, especially by the mainstream media and by financial "experts" is that there are 2 distinct things that we are looking at today, not 1.

#1 - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as an INVESTMENT at this PRICE (BUBBBLEE!)
#2 - The value, usage and potential of the various different types of crypto today and in the future

Wait wait, hold on a second. Different types of crypto? Isn't it just Bitcoin and knock-offs? No.

There are many different types of crypto.

There are the currency types.
There are the platform types.
There are the governance types.
There are the security types.
There are the utility types.
There are the fund types.

While PepeCash and DogeCoin might sound really stupid and ridiculous, they are both worth more than you. (And yes, they are ridiculous)

But then again, there are cryptos that are coming out which are going to change the world that we know it.

If you are buying "the Bitcoins" and you don't know what it does, how to use it, how much it costs to send it ($20 USD per tx now, btw), then you are playing the wrong game.

If you are looking into crypto and realizing just what these technologies mean and what they can do for the world, and you want a piece of the future now when its cheap and emerging (with the risks involved), then your head is on the right place.

When I invest (some of you might call it speculation, but f*** you) in crypto, there are plenty of various things to look at and take into consideration. While a monkey could pick crypto from coinmarketcap and make money today, so can a monkey picking stocks in a bull market.

The main difference is that the crypto monkey will be driving a lambo on the moon, while the stock monkey gets 7% a year over the next 30 years.

Jokes aside, when the shit finally hits the fan (and it will), a lot of these crypto are going to crash because they are built on nonsense. And yes, even I will admit that lots of crypto are crap. The solid ones will find a base after that crash and just continue growing and growing.

Like Stephen the genius Baldwin says, I'm not asking you to YOLO into cryptos and become a millionaire and cash out. If you have that mindset, that you are wrong. I'm asking you to read, understand and maybe even experiment with the technology by taking part in it.

Because if this fricking works, you wouldn't need to cash out.

Thursday, December 21, 2017

#GivingWeek 2017 Update

This is the update from my previous post at the start of the month.

Anyway, this is just me showing my accountability that I do what I said I'll do. looks and feels better compared to when I was using it last year. It's really very easy to donate. Just sign up, add charities to your cart, check out!

I must say, I enjoy this annual ritual that I do at the end of every year.

I wish everyone Happy Holidays! Have a great end of the year everybody!

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

2H 2017 Crypto Portfolio Performance

The quick and easy number?


The math is a simple one, I'm too damn lazy to count XIRR. It would be a ridiculous number like 800% or something anyway. ( Current Unrealized + Realized Profits ) / ( Capital Invested ) = Returns

I'll give you guys the facts:

I bought my FIRST crypto on 9 June 2017.
I've been invested in cryptos for 6 months and 10 days.
I was very lightly allocated initially, but my allocation increased heavily towards the end of August.

The median date that I allocated my capital was 2 September 2017 (ie. half was before, half was after). I did say that on 23 August I'll be going all-in crypto. I'll leave it up to you to speculate how much I actually put in.

My worst closed position was +5%.
My best closed position was +968%.

My worst open position is my ONLY negative position and it is at -4.3%
My best open position is at 842%.

I have taken part in 4 ICOs.
I have made money in all of them. No duds, heh.

Obviously, my most current positions are doing the worst. All my "old" (relatively, especially in this fast moving market) positions are deep in the money.

If I wanted to window dress my portfolio, I would have stopped adding capital. All my new capital is weighing down on my portfolio returns heavily. However, I don't care about window dressing my portfolio to make it look like I'm a genius and savvy crypto investor. I'm not. I care about making money and that means I need to put my capital to work.

Most other people in crypto would have portfolio returns much higher than mine, even though they have been in it shorter. I'm not complaining. Those people probably took riskier bets than I did and they were rewarded for it.

I'm in it for the long haul, so I have not used any leverage and I have never gone short anything. I pick cryptos that I like fundamentally and I avoid shitcoins the best I can.

So far, so good.

I'm so deep in profits right now that even if this alleged crypto bubble bursts, it needs to tank more than 70% to even touch my capital. It might happen - over my dead body.

Crazy mania tulip bubble ponzi fraud? Going fantastically well.

Am I an idiot for doing this? Well, at least for now, I'm still an idiot that is making money.

You wouldn't want to get your hands dirty touching this ponzi bubble right? LISTEN TO UNCLE WARREN. BUFFET KNOWS BEST. Now sit back and watch me get rich.

PSA: Cryptos are dangerous af. Don't play with shit that you don't know.

Monday, December 18, 2017

Crypto Cancer Shitcoins

I would not say that I am an expert in cryptos. I'm probably better than average though. I only started seriously doing cryptos in the 2nd half of 2017, but I have since read and studied a lot about cryptos, so much so that I sold everything I had and went all in.

However, as many of you know, not all coins are created equally.

In this post, I would like to share with you my personal list of cryptos that I avoid.

Why am I sharing this? I see a lot of noobs rushing in to the space and I really wish that they wouldn't lose all their money buying shitcoins. Anyway, here we go, starting from the largest caps as listed on CMC today.

Bitcoin Cash - Absolutely retarded way of scaling. Fake Bitcoin.
Ripple - Private blockchain with no user use cases. Pre-mined with a bajillian coin supply.
IOTA - "Tangle" technology that is untested, unproven, user unfriendly and no user use cases.
DASH - Pre-mined Masternode coin. Probably the most unfairly distributed currency-type crypto that exists.
Bitcoin Gold - GPU-mining based fake Bitcoin
Stellar - A cheaper version of Ripple. A gajillion coin supply.
EOS - It doesn't even exist.
Ethereum Classic - "Code is law" nerd chain. Fake Ethereum.
Bitconnect - Obvious ponzi
Tether - Obvious ponzi
Veritaseum - Obvious scamcoin

Anyway, this is just a list of coins that I personally avoid. You can buy them or "invest" in them if you want, but I ain't touching any of these shitcoins with a ten foot pole.

The sad part about that whole list above is that they are all probably going to go higher. Do not take higher price to equal legitimacy. Metrics like transactions, new addresses and development are better indicators in my opinion.

A lot of the new kids are flocking into Ripple because "it is backed by banks" and into IOTA because "the Tangle is the evolution of blockchain". Also because it is "cheap" with its low face value per coin. Lol. I wish these people the best of luck in their crypto adventures, because they are going to need it.

When the shit finally hits the fan (and yes, it will), a lot of the crap coins are going to tank hard. When everything is going up, why do you even need to care about what you own? But when it starts going down, people start to panic, and guess what? The owners of those coins are going to find plenty of reasons to panic.

Don't get me wrong, you CAN make money with these shitcoins. But I have personal issues with them on technical and/or ideological level that I would not even want to own any of the crypto above.

Good luck, stay safe. The next crash ought to be a bloody one.

Sunday, December 17, 2017

SMRT Feedback has $8 mil SGD in Bitcoins

Holy shit, lol.

And you know what? I believe them.

They came out with their guidebook on cyber security and online anonymity a long time ago and that was actually *THE* thing that got me into researching more about my digital footprint and my own security.

One thing led to another and that all lay the foundations for me discovering many of the things I know now, and it has definitely helped me understand why Bitcoin was so popular in the darkwebs where it first thrived and that has of course help me understand cryptos as intimately as I do now. Of course, Bitcoin has lost its place in the darkwebs since it is only pseudo-anonymous, while other crypto like Monero is becoming the defacto crypto there. Sounds like gibberish to normal people, but I understand all of these things now, thanks to these guys right here.

I have nowhere as many Bitcoins as The Vigilanteh, but I am extremely grateful to these guys for planting to seeds of knowledge into my brain a long time ago, which in turn led me down this glorious path of riches.

It *might* be a bubble. I'm gonna be rich AF riding it up.

When the rest of you guys are finally convinced that it isn't a bubble after people start buying houses and shit and retire at 30 with cryptos and decide to come in?

That's probably when I'll be exiting.

Because then it's probably a bubble.


Friday, December 15, 2017

GMGH's Crypto Starter Pack v2.0

Dear all,

This is based on my previous post done in August, and I have updated and revised some stuff while keeping it more brief and succinct.

Yes, there are some referral links here.
Yes, I am using all my own recommendations.

Now, let's get started!

Password Manager

You need dope ass, top of the line security when you handle cryptos because now you become your own bank. You need proper security measures like long, complex, non-reused passwords and you need a way to remember them all. You need a password manager.

I recommend Dashlane. For your 2FA companion, I recommend Authy.

Alternatives are Lastpass or 1Password.
Not recommended options are non-password protected Excel, Word, Notepad or Post-its.

Fiat-Crypto Exchange

You need a way to turn your SGDs into crypto. What do you need? A bank and a fiat exchange.

I recommend using DBS Remit with Gemini.
0.65% currency conversion and remittance fee.
0.25% exchange fee.

A lot of people have problems with Gemini because of a recent change to their clearing code. I have sent money to Gemini dozens of times. With the new clearing code update, money has also been successfully received by them and credited into my account.

Of course, you can and should have alternatives.

I also use Coinbase and I would recommend it.

The main pain point with Coinbase is the need to setup an Xfers account and Xfers have been having a lot of issues lately.

I would recommend Coinbase to users who are starting out because the interface is simple and easy.
I would recommend Gemini over Coinbase once users are more advanced and want a better and cheaper way to exchange fiat to crypto.

Please also consider other fiat-crypto gateways to have smooth and easy access in and out of both crypto and fiat. Kraken, Quoine, CoinHako and actually even TenX in the future are all good back up options in case something happens to Gemini or Coinbase.

Crypto-Crypto Exchange

Fiat-crypto exchanges only support the major coins (so far). This means that anything outside of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin would have to be purchased using crypto from a crypto-crypto exchange.

My #1 recommendation is Binance.

Binance is definitely one of the best crypto-crypto exchanges currently.
0.1% transaction fees
0.05% transaction fees if you use the BNB token to offset fees
2 BTC daily withdrawal limit without KYC (that's more then $40,000 SGD, more than enough!)

Binance is my top choice these days. They are taking over a lot of market share from the big players because they are extremely nimble in getting listings out. They also do a lot of marketing and at least from my perspective, they are very aware about their users' wants and needs. Binance does not require you to do any KYC as long as you stick under their limits.

In the past, I would recommend Bittrex instant as the top choice, but Bittrex has been weak lately. The main problem with Bittrex is their inability to list coins that users want to trade with. What good is an exchange that doesn't allow you to exchanges the things you want? Bittrex is an unfortunate #2. With an extremely troublesome KYC process and tiny withdrawal limits (0.4 BTC a day), I think many crypto users are migrating away from Bittrex.

My #3 recommendation would be HitBTC.

0.1% transaction fees.
NO withdrawal limit.

While I have read that some people have had bad experience with them, I have personally not had any problems with HitBTC. HitBTC is very proactive in listing coins and some of the lower cap coins which cannot be found on the large exchanges can only be found on HitBTC. They also handled the Bitcoin forks very well in the past, so my experience with them has been extremely pleasant (and profitable, hehe).

Update 3 Jan 2018: HitBTC has been under DDOS attack and I doubt their ability to stay strong, although they have never failed me in the past, I think it's best to avoid them for now and instead just stick to Binance and verify if you need a daily limit over 2 BTCs (lol)

My #4 recommendation for a simple, fuss-free experience is Changelly.

Unlike the previous recommendations above, Changelly is a very simple "vending machine". You select the currency you want to sell and you choose the currency you want to receive. They will give you an estimate if you send your crypto to them now, and boom, that's it. No KYC registration. No order books. No deposits and withdrawals.

The downside is that you get a slightly more expensive fee, which is basically the price of convenience and speed.

I am hesitant to recommend ShapeShift because I don't like their CEO Erik Voorhees, but it's not too bad. I have used it before, but I still enjoy the Changelly experience more.

Crypto Wallets

You need a safe place to store your crypto.

I strongly recommendation to get a Ledger Nano S hardware wallet.

I personally use the Ledger Nano S with the My Ether Wallet interface.

While any hardware wallet should do the trick, I have only used the Ledger Nano S. The Ledger team is also much, much more proactive in supporting more coins compared to all the other hardware wallet manufacturers.

Trezor is supposedly good, but I have never used one before. I've heard good things about it, but it is not as universally accepted and praised as the Ledger Nano S.

I have no iOS recommendations because I don't have an iPhone.
For Android I have used both Jaxx and Coinomi and I find them great.
For Desktop, I have heard good things about Exodus.

I still strongly strongly recommend a hardware wallet, specifcally the Ledger Nano S. Unless you are just putting in some play money to learn and understand crypto, you should not take the risks involved with other wallets and just pay $100 for a proper hardware wallet.

Portfolio Tracking

I have 3 suggestions, I use all 3 myself.

1: Blockfolio
2: Delta
3: Google Sheets + CryptoFinance Add on

I use Blockfolio as my watchlist and to see USD prices
I use Delta as my portfolio tracker and to see my SGD value
I use Google Sheets to journal detailed breakdowns of my trades and capital injected

Crypto Prices and Charts

Here are some good websites to track crypto prices. Pick your poison.

*My current favourite* Coinlib
Trading View

Crypto News

I strongly recommend against reading crypto news from any mainstream media outlet. Straits Times, Forbes, WSJ, CNBC... all pretty much trash. The worst ones are the hippie indie news outlets. Even the crypto news sites themselves push their own agendas and have bias.

I can only recommend 2 places to stay up to date on crypto news:
1) Reddit and the subreddits of the crypto that you are interested in
2) Twitter and the crypto tweeters

I strongly recommend against attending any sort of course, class, seminar or other scam event by any self proclaimed "guru" or "teacher" that will teach you how to earn money in crypto.

Stay away from newsletters and "signal groups".

All full of shit.


Crypto is dangerous. Crypto is volatile. Crypto is the wild wild west. There are virtually no laws, no recourse, no police, no help and no support. A lot of cryptos are actually scams and ponzis. A lot of crypto will become worthless. The risks are large. But so are the rewards.

I would not encourage people to put in any amount of serious money into cryptos unless they know what they are getting themselves into.

If you want to "play" cryptos just because its all over the news and because that's what all the cool kids (like myself) are doing these days, then be prepared to get eaten for breakfast in 3 different timezones on a daily basis, 365 days a year.

Stay safe, be vigilant. If you are ready for a wild ride to the moon, take the red pill and follow me down the rabbit hole.

If you can't handle the risks, the volatility, the "unbacked-ness", the illegitmacy of crypto, then perhaps it's best that you just step aside and just watch people like me show you how its done.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Sold some Crypto for 968% Profit

And before you ask,

No, I do not think crypto is in a bubble.

But I do think that the recent run up in LTC has been rather CRAZY.

Anyway, I took some profit because why not.

I sold off 6.0618 LTC for $3000 SGD ($2955.30 after fees actually).

Based on my purchase price of about $276.70 in early june, I sold off this bunch of LTCs for a staggering nett profit of  $2678.6.

That's a profit of +968%.

In 5 months.

It feels nice to take some sick profits. I think LTC will go past $1000 eventually with ups and downs along the way, but I took this profit just so that I could blog about it.

Oh by the way I sold only $3k worth because that's the sell limit on coinbase.

And yes, I have a ton more LTC.

Anyway, that is all. Have a good day.

Want to trade crypto? Referral links to 2 exchanges that I use a lot these days!
Binance - One of the best crypto-crypto exchanges with 0.1% fees and 2 BTC withdrawals limit.
HitBTC - Another very good crypto-crypto exchange with 0.1% fees and NO withdrawals limit.

Sunday, December 10, 2017

I'm back from my break! Bitcoin Futures thoughts

It was a short break, just a week, but I managed to get a lot of things done! I hope that I got quite a bit of my life organized now and that the rest of 2017 and 2018 would be quite smooth sailing for me!


Lol when I left BTC was at $11,000 and it felt kind of giddy to me.

Now we're sitting around $15,000, but not before peaking at $17,000 - $20,000 depending on which exchange you are taking the price reference from.

Now that $11,000 is starting to look CHEAP, haha.


One of the things that pulled me back from my blog break is regarding the release of Bitcoin futures, which I believe starts tomorrow.

If I was super rich, I would have been buying up tons of actual BTC over multiple exchanges for the past week(s) or so leading into futures trading. It would help me with 2 things: (1) accumulating actual BTCs and (2) pumping up the price.

Why would I want to accumulate BTCs? Well, it's so that I can open short positions on BTC on the futures, and then dump the actual BTCs across exchanges to drive the price down.

Why would I want to pump the price going into futures trading? I would want the price to be screaming OVERBOUGHT on pretty much every single technical indicator that I can think off, so when I dump BTCs, it would seem not only rational that it is happening, but also convince people that price is overbought and would be heading lower. This would lead to a cascading effect that would lower price even more.

And a lower price leads to more profit on my futures short.

Anyway, that's just how I would do it, but let's see if anyone actually does do that.

On the flip side, that is actually the obvious playbook. Almost too obvious that I don't think it would actually happen. Or maybe I am really thinking just the right amount of steps in front of everybody.

A lot, a lot of pent up demand is waiting for futures so that they can get exposure into crypto. How the price action pans out will determine how quickly crypto futures for other assets start arriving, and how it would affect the prices of those cryptos.

Needless to say, BTC benefiting positively from futures would be huge for other top cryptos like ETH and LTC and would pump both their prices while accelerating the time it takes for them to get their own futures.

TIn my opinion, the best playbook would be just neutral going into the BTC futures, then just position yourself correctly when ETH futures finally come along. I can honestly see it going either way.

But gun to my head if I had to make a decision - my gut tells me that BTC would be sold into futures trading and we would have an obvious, but very brief period of huge whale accumulation taking up their initial long positions, before they finally release the downwards pressure and let it skyrocket with them now comfortably on board.

But hey, who knows what is gonna happen? I'm a simple man with a small monkey brain.

Price go up, I clap.
Price go down, I buy.

See, life can be easy.


Things to do by year end:

Post giving week update
Tidy up and publish A LOT of my drafts on crypto (before they get updated!)
Do a post with a list of my favourite 2017 crypto posts
Prepare to expose myself by sharing my crypto profits (!!!)

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Blog Break

Just fyi that I'm taking a break from blogging for a while.

No, the crypto markets aren't crashing and I'm not running away to hide my face.
Au contraire, the crypto markets is back (to business as usual) to pushing ATHs.
It will crash. But it will also continue going up. That's just the nature of a new paradigm.
It's a bubble? Guess I'd ride it up another 1000% and cash out then.

My crypto portfolio is exploding like you wouldn't believe it. It's absolutely disgusting. I'm thinking of sharing my performance at the end of the year. I'm not sure if I should share % gains or absolute profit. I don't want to share both, because then you guys can reverse engineer my capital, which I am shy about. I'm leaning towards % gains because it's a more generic number, but the absolute profit in $ value is also eye watering. I'm not sure if it would be responsible to shill my profits like that. A lot of greedy people would be tempted to rush in.... and that will boost my returns? Hmmm... it seems like a moral hazard problem that I have here. Luckily, I don't have much morales, ahaha! What do you guys think? % gains or absolute $ profit? Let me know which one and why, and maybe you'll get to see what you want to see!

Anyway, lately there has been a lot of things on my plate to handle, and I have not been handling them very well.

While I enjoy blogging and penning down my thoughts, pumping out content now is not something that I want to do. I know I have no obligation to churn out content, but I feel a bit stressed out about it sometimes.

If I put blogging away to one side for now, I hope I can sort out all my other things and get back to blogging once my life is more organized.

Anyway, my main message to all readers: Crypto is dangerous. 90% are plain shit, scams, frauds and ponzis. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Nothing is for certain. Temper your greed. If you don't know what you are doing, don't do it. No one is going to cry for anyone that lost money in cryptos.

You have been warned.

I don't know when I'll be back to blogging. Maybe a week. A month. Maybe more.

We'll see.

Good luck and stay safe.

Friday, December 1, 2017

#GivingWeek 2017: GMGH Annual Charity Donation

It's that time of year again.

#GivingWeek is a national movement that encourages people to give back. I like how it is at the end of every year and near the festive seasons. It's a good time to take stock of how your life and the year went, count your blessings (and accounts) and see if you have anything spare to give to others.

I feel particularly blessed this year for discovering and learning about cryptos. I have advanced my retirement by multiple years. I am eagerly looking forward to 2020, because there is serious likelihood that I will be financially independent and able to retire by then.

Cash donations have a tax incentive of 250%, and it will stay this way until at least 2018. You can of course choose to donate to registered charities that are not approved IPCs, but you will not get any tax deductions. I donate to IPCs because they are held to a higher standard for regulatory compliance and governance, it's easy for me to find the list of IPCs and what's more beautiful than a win-win situation for all?

I will be making my donations via the website.

Similar to what I did last year (2016) and the year before (2015), I plan to donate all my blog advertisement earnings to charity, as well as match it one-for-one and top up to round up the final donation amount.

The amount of AdSense earnings that I have this year is: $218.01
Add my personal donation of matching it one-for-one is: $436.02
Rounding the amount up to the nearest $10 for easy contribution is: $440

I'll definitely be doing a follow up post as usual.

Although this is what I personally do, I don't expect other people to do the same. I think that it is very important to have a philosophy and reasons behind why you do something. I'm going to share (re-post) my thoughts from last year, updated with some very minor edits. I still think it's one of my greatest literary works yet.


Having money isn't a crime to the society

One of the few ires about being an Asian financial blogger is swimming against the tide of taboo that is embedded in our culture, which is that money shouldn't be talked about openly. However, since financial bloggers implicitly do so, apparently it is suddenly okay for observers to tell us what we should do or should not do with our money.

There is a certain notion that people who like to talk about finance are capitalist pigs with no hearts. All we apparently think about is how we can amass more fortune by allegedly screwing over other people. Apparently, we are also ungrateful for the society that we live in that have enabled us to be financially successful. Those who are successful and on the top could have only got there by stepping on other people along the way. Since we are so focused on becoming millionaires, we need to pinch and save ever penny that we can get our hands on and we don't have any human decency to spare a thought for the less fortunate or those in need.

Sure, you can think that, but I don't believe so. That seems to be more like the logic of a sour person who is frustrated with their own lives instead, especially if they keep on making comparisons to others. Everything is everybody else's fault and they are just perfect. Pfft. They are just projecting their own problems onto other people.

Karma and "Fairness"

I have friends from different religious backgrounds and I also have friends who do not follow any religion. However, quite universally between my friends who are religious and those who are not, they all seem believe in a simplified version Karma, which is "Good things happen to good people, bad things happen to bad people", or "What goes around, comes around".

I know this might come to a shock to most people, but I do not believe in Karma. I don't think that anybody is keeping score and hatching a devious plan to "balance" out the bad, or even reward the good. It is a great way to encourage more positive social behaviour, but I just don't see how that works in any sort of semi-practical way (I admit, it could be argued that it is much too complicated for my feeble mind to understand). In fact, after learning more about philosophy of life, I would quite firmly place myself as existentialist which accepts the absurd and is striving to live life authentically and without bad faith. (all philosophical ideas that I would encourage anyone brave enough to put their entire understanding of the meaning of life up to the test to read up on)

However, that doesn't mean I don't appreciate or understand Karma. It is a great way of thinking. One of the things that I do believe in is that people should treat other people the way they would hope to be treated. The notable difference here is that just because I treat other people nicely, it does not mean that I myself would be treated nicely by others. It's a two-street and I only control one direction.

Is life "fair"? Obviously it is not, and I don't think it can ever be fair. Whether we should strive for fairness is a different debate altogether.

Capitalism and Meritocracy

My non-belief of Karma and my support of capitalism and meritocracy surely conflicts with the idea of charity then, does it not? Surely someone that thinks there is no such thing as divine retribution and also thinks that what people have got is somehow a culmination of what they deserve can't possibly care about others, right?

I believe that individuals or groups of private owners (capitalism) is the best form of economic system that we have so far because the rewards that it offers (money) is a pretty effective motivational tool for most people. The capitalist system also allows socialism to exist in pockets within its ecosystem, but not the other way around. The best example that I can think of are not-for-profit (different from non-profit) co-op credit unions that provides services to their members, such as easier loan approvals at lower interest rates. (FYI, I am a member of a co-op and there are many co-ops in Singapore, but that's a different story for a different day.)

To me, meritocracy seems like something that follows after a system of capitalism has been established. When there is a sense of ownership over assets, which people will then accordingly maintain and look after, it allows meritocracy to thrive. People now have ownership over their own skills and time. Between two people with similar skills, the one who clocks in more hours will get the better reward. Between two people clocking in the same hours, the one who has superior skills will get better rewarded. This isn't rocket science and I think this is pretty much the closest we can get to a universal agreement about the concept of fairness (but like I said, life ISN'T fair). Rewarding people who cultivate and improve their skills and are willing to spend more hours working to produce a final product - be it a good or service - is a good way to motivate them to continue their good performance, and also offers peers a glimpse of what their futures could be. Meritocracy would not exist without capitalism, because people would not be recognized for the different levels of skill and time committed.

I believe that the "skilled and hardworking" should be rewarded the most. This is different from being "skilled" or being "hardworking". Working 12 hours a day on a farm sure is a bitch and it is hard work, but try convincing anyone that a farmer should earn more money than a doctor (not talking about drug farmers). Yes, I took the 2 extremes, but that is just to make the point clear. Hard work counts for nothing if you're not applying that hard work well. Hard work is extremely overrated. I wish people would stop saying, "if you work hard, anything is possible" because it clearly isn't. If you have a smart plan and have realistic steps and actually work to complete those steps (note: no mention of hard work), you can achieve your goals. "Hard work" is too simplistic of a concept. It propagates the fallacy that all you need to do to achieve your dreams is to do it more times. Harder. Faster. Sheer insanity.

Being such a cynic and, so far up to now, heartless, how is it possible for charity to reasonably exist without conflicting with everything else that I support and believe in?

Fitting in the concept of Charity to help those who cannot help themselves

Firstly, let's acknowledge one thing. In a capitalist system, poor people DO exist. In fact, in any economic system there will always be some people who are poor and some people who are rich. The existence of a lower class is not proof of a flawed economic system, because show me a system where there isn't any distinction? Show me a system where poverty doesn't exist. Or at least justify your stance why poor people should not exist!

I believe that we were all dealt difference cards in life to begin with. To think that a son of a billionaire and the average person have the same opportunities and privileges in life is naive. Of course the son of a billionaire is starting the race way ahead of everybody else. Born in a rich family? Great, put in half the effort and get the same outcome. Born into a poor family? Unfortunately, you need to work twice as hard to get the same outcome. Ain't nobody said that life was going to be fair.

However, the world that we live in now isn't so unforgiving and harsh as that and I think that's a good thing. I believe that people who are handicapped just because of the luck of the draw should not be penalized and have no social mobility. Many governments are already "equalizing" the playing field to their own perceived notion of what is "fair" and what is not. I don't necessarily think that this is a bad thing. If the system is already stacked against them to fail before they even start, that to me is not something that I would like to see in the society that I live in. People should be able to determine to at least some degree to how they want their lives to pan out, rather than it already being predisposed from birth. But I'm also not saying that anyone can be Bill Gates.

Personal obligation to give to Charity

With many of my readers below the age of 40, giving to charity is a very confusing thought. Almost nobody is prepared for retirement yet. There are bills to pay, family to look after and raise. How can money be spent on others when there isn't enough for yourself yet? That's a great question. If you can't afford it, don't give to charity. Nobody is forcing you to give to charity, especially if you don't have enough for yourself. Look after yourself first.

However, the next question is... how much is enough that you feel comfortable parting away with some of the excess? After you buy a car? After scrapping the Japanese car for a continental one? Buying a second car? Upgraded to a condo? 2nd property? Overseas property in Malaysia / Thailand? And then London? How much stuff and money do you need so that you are comfortable to give some excess to charity? If the answer is that it is never enough, perhaps now might be a good time to realistically think about what it is in life that drives you and what do you what to achieve in life. If not having a yacht and the latest Apple gadgets makes you unhappy, you have way bigger problems in life then "Should I give to charity?".

Perhaps I have come to this conclusion rather early in life, but I figured out how to be happy, what I want in life to be happy, how to create happiness from different outcomes, what steps I need to complete to work my way there and I'm doing it. Since I'm a hedonist, all that works out great for me. I'm not just talking about doing it, I am actually doing it. With the ground already broken and I can see the work in progress being done, I'm quite confident that I know how things would end up for me. Sure, nothing in the future is confirmed, but I give myself pretty good probability that I'm going to end up in a comfortable situation. And that means that I will have some excess that I can afford to part with.

It's hard to say whether in the future as I become more successful, my lifestyle would also accordingly move up and my "needs" gets upgraded along the way. Personally, I hope it doesn't, but there really isn't anything wrong if it does. You've got the money in the bank, you want to buy a Rolex watch and that would make you happy? Go do it. I'm not advocating a lifestyle of selling all your worldly possessions and living simply and in the rough. I'm not advocating any lifestyle at all. I'm just verbalizing why my views on how seemingly conflicting topics can exist is a framework harmoniously.

As long as you can answer the question, "How much is enough?", you would be in a good position to examine your current status to see if you are suitable to donate to charities. If you know how much is enough, and you don't have enough yet, don't worry about it, next time maybe. If you don't know how much is enough, by default, it is never enough. But that's just my thinking about it.


I should wrap up my thoughts because what I wrote is a rather big web of ideas that are all over the place. I think that if you want to be happy, you need to look at yourself, not other people. If giving to charity makes you happy, give to charity. If giving to charity makes you miserable, don't give to charity. The tough part is figuring out if you'll actually be happy or unhappy!

Just like my non-Karmic belief that I cannot control how other people treat me, but I can only control how I treat others, I believe that all you can do is be the change that you wish to see in the world. Whether or not that change does eventually come about, that is beyond our control. But it is a bit comforting knowing that you at least did something instead of nothing.