Thursday, January 25, 2018

Revisiting the EZ Crypto Portfolio 1 Quarter later

On 20 Oct 2017, I wrote a post about an "EZ" crypto portfolio.

In it, I outlined 4 portfolios that would be theoretically invested with $10,000 SGD.

Portfolio 1: S&P500 ETF $SPY
Portfolio 2: STI ETF $ES3
Portfolio 3: 50% Bitcoin, 50% Ethereum
Portfolio 4: 25% Bitcoin, 75% Ethereum

Remember, it was a $10,000 SGD initial investment with no frictional costs.

How much are they worth on 20 Jan 2017, one quarter later?

Adding in dividends, if any were paid, and using the current spot rate of about 1.305 USD/SGD against the historical price, let's see.

Absolute value:

Portfolio 1: $10,558.44 
Portfolio 2: $10,650.88
Portfolio 3: $20,112.79
Portfolio 4: $22,549.81

Absolute Quarter Return:

Portfolio 1: 5.58%
Portfolio 2: 6.51%
Portfolio 3: 201.13%
Portfolio 4: 225.50%

Annualized Return:

Portfolio 1: 24.28%
Portfolio 2: 28.69%
Portfolio 3: 1536.40%
Portfolio 4: 2485.66%


Do note that the prices of both crypto had already come down from an even more ridiculous level. Bitcoin was down over 40% and Ethereum was down over 25%.


Of course, this is just a paper experiment. The point isn't to purposely cherry pick the absolute top in cryptos and slam stocks for the relatively lower returns. It is just a singular experiment to show the relative gains between the asset class over a fixed period of time.

I must add that the stock market over the past 3 months has been doing rather well. And well, if cryptos were down 20-40% when we made the comparison and it is still massively outperforming stocks, I think you can reach some sort of conclusion yourself, eh?

Is this a call to invest in cryptos? No, it is not. Just a glimpse at what are the returns that people invested in crypto get for assuming the massive risks in the crypto space.

This is just an experiment and food for thought.

People ask me all the time, am I too late? Yet when the crypto market goes ahead and give all investors - both old and new - a chance to buy in at 50% discounts, everyone is suddenly scared and thinks that we are in the phase of the bubble bursting.

Burst.

Burst.

Burst.

Bubble bubble pop pop.


Burst has become everyone's new favourite word after they have all become financial experts at spotting bubbles.

If you want to check if Bitcoin is in a bubble, visit this post and answer all the questions. You'll be able to find out for yourself.

Of course, the stock market itself isn't in a bubble? Only cryptos are, right? RIGHTTT?


Sure thing. You tell yourself whatever you need to so that you can keep on trooping along.

3 comments:

  1. Bubble bubble pop pop LOL. The stock market bubble is making me uneasy too, I've already sold a few positions and taken some profits.

    ReplyDelete
  2. LOL! You forgot the usual PSA about risky af, u die ur biz etc.

    ReplyDelete

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