Thursday, February 21, 2019

Last call to re-evaluate your DGD thesis

As some might recall, one of the biggest and most profitable crypto trades that I made was with DGD that I started buying in mid 2017 which I sold in Apr and I finally exited my position in Sep 2018.

I explained my thesis when I sold off my position in Sep 18. Since then, the price of DGD has cratered 43% in ETH and 55% in USD. Won't toot my own horn because everything is in a bear market, but yes, I believe that DGD's issues are not systematic and there are unique problems that it alone has. I doubt that it will ever recover, and if it does, it will be quickly sold down.

So on top of all the things I've mentioned before, now there is actually going to be a strong competitor against the gold-back cryptocurrency DGX that is produced by DGD.

DGX charges a fee for transferring.
DGX charges an annual demurrage fee.
DGX has fat premiums over spot.
DGX trade volume has limits based on availability of supply and order book liquidity.

It's competitor? Has none of that. And is also about to launch a silver offering.

It's tracks the value of gold with no fees for transferring, no annual fees for storage, miniscule premium over spot (0.15% of spot rate to buy or sell), and finally it has no trade limits and no issue fulfilling any size order that wants to buy or sell.

I don't want to mention the specific token and the project because I don't want to be accused of shilling. If you're that interested and you follow me, you already know what I'm talking about.

I see zero chance of DGX taking off when a better alternative is available. It's not like DGX is so widely used and integrated that it has network value and a critical mass. It doesn't. It's still an open playing field, and they are about to get smacked off the field.

Anyway, I just wanted to point this out for people who missed the news back in Sep 18 that I really hold 0 DGD tokens because it is fundamentally a train wreck. It has proven itself right.

As you all know, I'm almost always bullish about crypto in the long-term, so if I'm bearish on anything, you best believe that I have good reasons to be bearish.

Anyway, just a shameless plug to my twitter. If you want to engage with me, that's the best way to do so. If you want to see what I'm looking and thinking about, all you gotta do is read my retweets and tweets.

Stay strong peeps, I'm not worried about crypto. If you read and experienced the things I have, you probably wouldn't be worried about it either. It's a game about time, and time is something as a retail investor that I have plenty of.

Friday, February 8, 2019

Calling the Bottom...

in COE prices.

Charts from here.

I've talked about COE before a few times, like in 2018 and way back in 2015.

Honestly? If you're one of those kind of "guys" that get a hard-on for cars (they actually look at the cars at the car show, not the car girls), now is a pretty decent time to pick up a car, with COEs this low.

Personally, I don't really get it.

I don't like the luxury and status of owning a car. Why attract gold diggers? There are girls who literally exclude dating guys who don't own cars. That sounds fantastic. It'll be great to never meet such people.

I don't like playing the status game AFTER that of comparing cars either. For me, cars is just a mode of transportation. An expensive mode of transportation. That I have to pilot myself. And maintain. Bleah.

I actually don't even like driving cars. I rather sit down, play my phone or take a nap, and just be chauffeured around. Does driving spark joy in me? No, it does not.

Funny enough, I had a friend a few years ago who was "forced" to buy a car "because of job". Obviously, it's a self-justified reason to own a car. Mid 20s driving a car is quite cool, right? Like I said, it's a good gold digger magnet. Current status? Sold the car, swore he will never own a car again. Why? Just too expensive. After deducting all the expenses for his car from his take home pay, he had almost nothing left. It only took him about a year to realize how ridiculously expensive cars were and he dumped the car after that.

Granted, now it is "cheaper" to own a car, considering the initial capital outlay and the "depreciation" expense over the 10 years of the car. But you know what doesn't change? Everything else, like insurance, maintenance, road tax, parking, ERP, etc etc.

I know A LOT of people like to self justify that they literally NEED a car if they have kids and what not, but I don't have kids so I can't say. But I know of people with children and no car and they manage fine, so maybe it's possible that a car is a WANT and not a NEED?

Who knows. It will forever be one of life's great mysteries.

Seriously though, if you really want to buy a car, now is a decent time to consider it.

Then again, with all the improvements to transport infrastructure (new MRT lines, ride-sharing, e-scooters, on-demand buses, EV renting, sheltered walkways, etc etc), you really should also consider the financial cost of car ownership and the added value that it brings to your life, and if that cost is worth it.

For me, at this point of time in my life, it is definitely not.

Perhaps in the future when my personal situation has changed and my financial position has improved, but that's a different problem for a different day.