Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Make Hay while it's still PvE Season

ETH at ATHs.

DeFi summer vibes is coming again, with Aave doing exactly what Compound did last year.

Once again, there is a frenzy to yield farm on Ethereum L1 and L2 (Polygon).


The narrative of ETH is getting stronger - good checkpoint in this cycle.

More ETH L2 solutions are going live in the coming months.

If you've played 2020 Defi Summer and then BSC season, then you already know exactly how this goes.

Protocols simping for liquidity, is how it goes.


Primary Objective: SURVIVE

Don't get rugpulled.

Don't get scammed.

Be awake and alert - traversing chains and using forks may feel similar, but be aware of the differences and avoid making any silly mistakes that will brick your own funds.


Secondary Objective: Make bank

Broke lads pick a side and die ingloriously as maxis.

Woke lads recognize opportunity and profit from war.


While on different networks and L2s, always keep an eye on the exits. You never know when things go to shit and you don't want to forget your primary objective. Don't get left behind when everyone else is pulling out.


Suit up and roll out boys.

This ain't our first rodeo.

Hopefully it ain't our last either.


Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Passive Investing for Passive Returns

The funniest thing about index investing and passive investing becoming so extremely popular among retail investors is that it has completely normalized the cucked 6-8% long term annual returns of a risky investment portfolio.

If you can figure out why tradfi markets behave this way and why crypto markets do not, you're one step closer to enlightenment.

In crypto, it is one of the few areas in the world where studying publicly available free for all to access information gives you a massive investing alpha, but of course, you need to not be a lazy bitch, so that you can seize it for yourself.


The reason why massive alpha exists is simple - the majority of the current players in crypto are extremely stupid.

Like, really really fucking retarded.

For an example, see myself.

(I can swear now since I removed adsense cos fuck adsense revenue lmao I don't give a shit)


People ask me why I hustle so hard in crypto.

The truth is that I genuinely feel that it is one of the few places where time and effort correlates with returns.

The lazy people don't bother.

The stupid people don't understand.

All you have to do is not be lazy and an idiot, and it's easy pickings.


As more tradfi bois enter the space, the alpha will get eaten away. 

It definitely will. 

It's literally free money at the moment in crypto. 

All you have to do is to be present.

Talk about being at the right place at the right time.


As the alpha gets eaten away and the yields compress, with objectively smarter tradfi players coming into the space, I fear that the easy returns will slowly dwindle away.

The window of opportunity for random retail "making it" is quickly closing.

As each cycle progress, the absolute multiplier you can achieve in each cycle gets lower and lower.

And finally

One day

It becomes just another asset class that academics backtest and debate how much % of a portfolio should be allocated to it.


Have fun,

Staying por.

Sunday, April 25, 2021

Exit Liquidity Arriving

Sorry Heartland Boy for making your post the scapegoat, but this has been a trend I have noticed for the past few weeks - a lot of normies are now very aware of the recent rising prices of cryptocurrencies and many have begun "investing" in cryptocurrencies.

(pro tip: in Gemini, switch to ActiveTrader to pay 0.35% instead of 1.49% fees)


As more people from the traditional finance side of things start allocating into cryptocurrencies at historically elevated valuations,

it is yet another grim reminder that at the end of every boom cycle,

someone will be left holding the bag.


I eagerly await for more and more financial bloggers to "allocate a small % of their portfolio" into crypto.


Literally top signals.


It's funny, because they self-psyops themselves that "it's just a small %, so it is okay if it all goes to zero" and then proceed to allocate capital at historical all time highs. Savvy investing indeed. 

Herd timing allocation with a low conviction investment thesis. 

You absolutely love to see it.


I keep thinking that we see a parabolic blow off to mark the end of the cycle.

But all the normies pouring in now is making me question if we're already at peak delusion and whether I am just being too damn greedy about when to take profit.


Then again, real adoption is indistinguishable from euphoria?

Psyops.


If any prominent local finance blogger announce they are quitting their jobs or selling all their dividend stonks to fully allocate to crypto / to work for or run a crypto fund / teach crypto courses, then it will be time for me to sell all my crypto and to start shorting the markets on high leverage.


That's just the way it is, brosquitos.


The moment that they finally cave in and buy crypto, is the moment we run out of suckers this cycle to buy into these rat poison ponzis.

Thursday, April 22, 2021

"Lol I told you Crypto was a Scam"

Recently, I was watching TV.

Watching TV is actually really really rare for me, considering that crypto is a 24/7 market and we're running red hot at the moment - but I find it good to once in a while force myself away from the markets and clear my head with simple distractions. Sometimes I come back to my battlestation with a fresh perspective on old things.

But I digress.


I was watching TV, and the plot of this particular show was that the evil villain is planning to destabalize the economy by printing and releasing a lot of "counterfeit" money.

Not really "counterfeit", just actual notes that was not approved by the treasury to be printed and released into circulation.


And that got me thinking, how is this any different from governments printing money today?

For "unprecedented times" to deal with COVID?

For "emergency economic stimulus packages"?

For whatever reasons?


The answer is simple.

It isn't any different, at all.


Lol.


Do you know what is the circulating supply of your money?

Do you know how much money the treasury prints?

Do you even have any say in this matter?

How much are they supposed to print?

What if they print a lot more?

Who gets the money?

Who checks this?


You know nothing, Jon Snow.


At $500, BTC was too small and insignificant.

At $5,000, BTC was a scam and going to zero.

At $50,000 BTC was too expensive and you're waiting for a "correction" to buy it "cheap"

At $500,000 BTC, maybe you can fractionally own 0.01 BTC by proxy through your whole life insurance investment component through the master fund that has Bitcoin as a minor holding.


Tradfi no-coiner bois, I hope you HFSP.

I've been told it's the best way to have fun.

Monday, April 19, 2021

Crypto Bloodbath April 2021 Edition

 

Bitcoin *CRASHES* from $64,000 to $50,000.

Weird. Where have I seen before? 

Oh yeah, here.


Eventually though, one of these crashes will inevitably be the first real crash of the next and eventual crypto winter bear market.

Funny how the crypto markets are claimed to be manipulated, yet it somehow exhibits REAL boom and bust cycles that is expected of capitalistic markets, unlike some other manipulated markets.

The scams in this market sickens me, but that's how all bull markets look like - stupid ideas that make no sense pop up. But in proper functioning markets, these dumb ideas are culled every bear market. Funny how the traditional markets has lost its ability to do this. Well, not so much funny as it is sad.


Until we see a parabolic melt up, I think topping out for the cycle is unlikely.

Maybe it does top now and the market just rolls over and dies, but what do I know?

IMO, this rat poison ponzi is designed to go gangbusters.


I'm literally being forced to stay long and scammed into getting rich because there's no sell signals yet.

Honestly, I am so tired from making money for the past year.

So tiring to be so "lucky" to get into crypto early.


I never thought I'd say this, but I am looking forward to the nice long break I can enjoy once crypto winter arrives.

Sunday, April 18, 2021

Scams are Thriving in Crypto

If you weren't already aware, we are deep in a raging crypto bull market.

When money is flowing freely and new incoming people are greedy and looking to make quick money, it is the perfect environment that breeds scammers.


There are many "projects" coming out now that are absolute scams.

Worthless, pointless projects raising money / selling worthless tokens.

I won't hold you back from making money from stupid retail buying these trash.

Free / easy money is still money, after all.



Also, there is nothing wrong *TRADING* meme coins / shit coins.

Like DOGE, LTC, ETC, BCH, etc etc.

But if you don't understand the technology and the crypto landscape, it may not be a good idea to HODL.

I won't hold you back from making money from stupid retail trading these trash.

Free / easy money is still money, after all.


Personally, I am not invested in any scams. If I do farm scams, I stay in Pool 1 and immediately dump the scam token into the Pool 2 brainlets. Bless the Pool 2 farmers for being my exit liquidity.

I also do not trade the meme / shitcoins this cycle, because I am just focused on my holdings. I made a lot of money trading LTC, BCH, BSV, TRX, XRP in the past - there's really nothing wrong with doing it. However, my experience from last bull market was that splitting my attention to trading actually negatively affected my overall PnL since it diverted my attention from the more important bigger picture of the markets. I am focused on improving my method and to continually keep winning.



When the selling pressure from early players overwhelms the buying demand, that's when things goes to shit.

We're literally in genius season where everyone is making money on anything.

You actually need to be certified mentally retarded to lose money in this market.


What makes me sad is knowing that a lot of really stupid / naive people are going to lose a lot of money.

But I suppose, this is the exact kind of market that will brutalize the stupid / naive people.


I wish you guys all the best in playing this crypto cycle,

But I know for a fact, not everyone is going to make it.

I hope you at least, have fun.

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Thoughts about people joining in Crypto now

First off, probably you want to slow down.

If you're only interested because of recent news and seeing the recent gains, you're literally the retail speculator that everyone is waiting for to come, so that we can dump on you as you buy the top.


But say you're brainwashed into the magic scarce internet bean money meme and you think it's going to change the world,

You should probably slowly dip your toes in, rather than dive in on the deep end.


Personally, I always tell people interested in crypto to start with USD stablecoin lending. Plenty of CeFi platforms to lend your crypto.

A big big big point to know is that you must *KNOW* that the platform is actually lending it out. If not, how do they pay the interests?

A few scamming projects will promise yield and interests, but strangely, they have no borrow demand at all. Hmmm. 

If you can't even borrow from them, then who is actually borrowing from them?

Lending only, but no borrowing? 

LOL. You stupid is it?

Avoid.


Once you're familiar with CeFi stablecoin lending and understand the environment better, especially regarding addresses, transferring, block explorers, fiat on and off ramps and the general overview of the infrastructure, you can start getting a bit dirtier.

Withdraw out some funds to an actual Web3 wallet and mess around with yield farming. There's several ecosystems to do this. This is how you can get access to the higher risk premia of defi yield farming.

Why?

Because there is no customer support. 

No insurance. 

No guarantees.

You are completely solo and on your own.

You mess up and sent your money to a wrong address? BOOM. GONE FOREVER.

You mess up and call the wrong function? BOOM. GONE FOREVER.

There's so many attack vectors and possibilities for things to end badly.

So this is why the "yield" is much higher than the centralized platforms.

No guts no glory.

No brain same story.


An alternative route to defi farming is basis trading. This would suit people from tradfi with financial background, and is probably simpler to execute while still being a very high return strategy.


And if defi farming and basis trading to earn 40%+ yield is not enough for you, then I guess you can probably upgrade yourself out of the basic delta neutral strategies and actually start speculating in tokens.


However, I prefer to start people off and send them down a path of easy winning, and then they can branch out to "harder" stuff once they understand the entire space a lot more deeply and have familiarized themselves with the landscape and environment.


That said, I think because it is the bull market now, too many people are too greedy and too impatient and want to have the insane sick gainz NOW.


Speaking from experience, I think that crypto is a long term survival game, not a quick get-rich one-and-done, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity sort of deal.


If you think crypto is just a passing fad (like the previous times lmao), then all I can say is 

Have fun staying poor.

Friday, April 16, 2021

Crypto Exposure Through Stonks Herp Derp

I always remember the saying, "When you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail".

I recently read this post by Seedly, and thought to myself,


"When you're a stock investor, every investment has to be a stock"


IMO, proxy crypto exposure through stocks is really stupid.

(By the way, I can swear and be non PC now because I have closed my AdSense account, KEK)


When people talk to me crypto, I try very hard to help them understand that significantly superior risk/rewards strategies exist without them having to take on crypto price risks.


Unfortunately, no one wants honest low-risk, high returns strategy (10-40% returns in a year).


If they are going into crypto, they just want to degenerate and yolo go for 10-100x returns.

Because, it's all stupid anyway, and it's just a gamble.

Just fun money to have some excitement.

Win or lose, all based on LUCK.


If that's how you think, you can

Have Fun Staying Poor

Monday, April 12, 2021

I would not touch CakeDeFi

I read KPO's post on this.

Usually I try not to comment so much on what other people are doing.

He is in their "pool 2". (the podcast link explains pool 2)

If you don't know where the yield comes from, boi, it's coming from you.

(that said, I have been in pool 2s - you just to need to know damn sure what you're doing / risking)


Me explaining to people how pool 2 works


But hey, maybe this time is different.

You never know, right?


By the way, I have a recent post about retarded magical money printing machines.

Anyway, it's a free world.


I PERSONALLY WOULD NOT TOUCH THIS WITH A 10000 FOOT POLE.


But hey, that's just me.

Perhaps I am being irrational, since I am not giving any reasons and will not be elaborating.

You live by the sword, you can die by it as well.

Good luck Cake bois.

Friday, April 9, 2021

Crypto Skeptics or Uneducated Armchair Critics?

As crypto goes higher and higher,

the salt level increases

and I see more absolutely shit takes on crypto.


It is actually really sad to see seemingly smart and financially trained people with such dogshit takes.


I talk about the "yield" in the crypto markets often.

Yet people still don't know that you can earn yield while taking on zero price risk of cryptocurrencies.

It's not hyperbole, it's a fact.

You can think Bitcoin is a scam and be completely USD denominated and based, and still make steady and predictable returns regardless of BOTH upwards or downwards price movement. (Delta neutral)

But critics never talk about this. Why?

Cos these critics don't know jack shit, that's why.


Again, this is the risk premia that the educated and adventurous are allowed to harvest.


https://cryptohayes.medium.com/all-aboard-4d50435190d6 (supplement to understand the Nakadollar fixed rate bonds)

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4G0x6TTb751RNB8Hzafi3u


If you have any sort of financial background and the above 2 pieces did not convince you, 

then I have nothing more to say other than that you're pretty much destined to

Have Fun Staying Poor.

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Magical Money Printing Crypto Trading Bot?

Automated trading bot that uses advanced AI and machine learning?

Magical secret guru taught technical analysis method and top secret indicator to make money?


Lol. 


You how old, still get tricked by stupid lies?




Whether or not Torque was actually legit and the rouge employee screwed them over, or if it was a scam all along, I do not know. But my personal opinion on this matter when people had asked me about it privately was that I thought it was definitely a scam.

The ironic thing is that some people in the space think that I am the evil bad guy tricking people to burn their money gambling into crypto ponzis, or even worse, an outright scammer.

You better read my blog properly hor. I never ask you to buy anything. 

I just say what I myself am doing and thinking, and then ask everyone to have fun.

See, I am such a cheerful and happy person, right?


What baffles me is actually how common it is for people to be naive enough to think that a group of very kind professional people have found some magical money printing trading robot, and will happily share their secret winning formula with you.

You knock your head, is it?


I can't save everyone.

But if along my way I see people that I can help, I try my best.


Pump groups are a scam.

Paid groups are a scam.

Trading bots are a scam.

Trading seminars and courses are a scam.

Magical guru developed trading systems are DEFINITELY A BIG FUCKING SCAM.

A fake "G" ever contacting you for any reason at all is a scam.

Most things in crypto are a scam.

That's why 99% of this trash gets burnt down at the end of every cycle for -99%.


If you believe that some professional looking guy with a "track record" can teach you magical ways to make money, there's something wrong with you.


This always remind me of the fish tackle story:

A man walks into a fishing shop and see all sorts of different coloured and shaped fish tackle and remarked to the shopkeeper, "WTF, do fish actually fall for these different tackles?".

And the shopkeeper replied, "Ser, the fish aren't my customers."


Good luck and stay safe.

Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Cash is Trash, Particularly SGD

I read this post by FYI on Syfe Cash+ and others.

I've also recently seen other bloggers post about the different savings accounts and fixed deposits-esque products around the local market.

It is absolutely depressing AF.


Over-collateralized crypto USD lending is between 4-11% on Compound.

Over-collateralized crypto USD lending is between 5-23% on Aave.

Non-DeFi, regulated custodial lenders are offering 10.5%, like Celsius.


There's so many more options too, from higher risk yield aggregators to yield farming, but if you cannot even grasp this absolutely rudimentary idea of overcollateralized lending, those concepts will unfortunately be outside of your IQ grade.


Imagine investing in dividend stonks, or REITs, or even worse, buying a condo to collect 2% net rent.

Actually it might be better to compare to short duration bond funds or money market funds, since possible downside risks are somewhat similar.

Doesn't really matter to be honest, tradfi people simply cannot grasp how absolutely skewed the risk/rewards are. Lower returns is the price of being risk-adverse and uneducated.


B-b-b-b-but foreign exchange risks!

So confusing and complicated!

Custodial risks!

Crypto risks!


Okay.


Have fun staying poor.


I'm just saying that alternatives exist.


Your choice if you want to stay uneducated, or be....


Well, I would say "woke", but I recently found out that a certain salaryman that I had considered to be very woke is actually not very woke at all.

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Operation Pasta Preparation

If you're a crypto native, you probably know what that title means.
It is our shared culture, history and hence, our secret code.

I have no idea how this market ends, but one thing is for sure - it cannot go up forever.

A few people have fallen for the "Supercycle" Meme.


But, consider this:

Even if fiat is in decline and eventually becomes worthless, does it happen overnight?

There are plenty of normies and institutions that lag that will cushion the hyperinflation and death of fiat, if it ever comes to that. Plus we as crypto-natives are not only more sensitive to such changes in the wind, but we are also more flexible in both mind and process to shift back our allocation to be heavy crypto if the world is indeed falling apart.

Eventually, the crypto markets will hit its maxima interest of this cycle. I am already seeing complete crypto skeptics throwing in the towel after years of calling it a scam targeted at the low-IQ, to finally dip their low-IQ toes in themselves to see what it is all about.

What happens after the last of these get convinced?

Who are the marginal buyers left in this market?
How much money do they still have left?
Who's the last sucker that will buy the top and hold bags down?

These are questions I ask myself all the time. I do not have the answer.

I don't want to be bearish because I am honestly and truly an omega crypto bull at heart - I have been in this space for years and I live breathe and use all these cryptocurrencies and the dapps on a daily basis. They have plenty of utility to me.

But the marginal buyer is not entering this space to access decentralized finance and claim back sovereignty over their finances.

The marginal buyer read about some spastic blogger living in Singapore who made 8 digits from digital internet ponzis and would also like to get rich quick. 

My current thinking is pretty much still the same as what I wrote in mid Dec 2020, the only difference is that the market has both matured in price and cycle progression. I am up multiples (plural) since the date of that post.

Imagine coming in now, at the all time highs of price and interest, playing against idiots like me who got literally scammed and forced into having 8 digit wealth and are sitting on 4 digits % returns on cost because we bought in more than 10x cheaper than the current prices.

I do not know how this market will play out.

Of course, I hope that it continues to scam up higher. Scam me into multi-generational wealth and into several reasonably sized houses - I will be okay with that.

However, as much as I want to believe in the supercycle meme, my opinion is that it definitely does not apply to many altcoins and it is unlikely for the fiat-crypto chasm to be crossed to quickly by everyone, especially for retail.

The plan for coiners to take profit is always the same:
- simply hodl til the day you need to / want to realize your probably massive returns
- take a bigger risk and hope that you can locate the top to dump, so that you can buy back more lower

I don't particularly think either way is better, it just depends on your own confidence of your personal abilities to do what is best for your long term portfolio (assuming you believe owning more coins is the main goal in the long run)


Perhaps I am being too cautious too soon and too early, but for early coiners (superior subspecies of humans that bought BTC before $20k), you're likely sitting in deep and healthy profits. Use these to level up your life and don't lose it all back to the markets.

Don't get me wrong though - this is not me saying that the market has topped.

But rather, this is just a reminder that some day, some how, you, a coiner, will need to sell (some) coins.

I hope you have an exit strategy to play.

Personally, I have already outlined my strategy since December and it is still the same. I will slowly start selling once we go parabolic, but I have also set aside a permanent stash of crypto that I will never sell.

Me selling only some coins along the upwards parabolic move is my bet that I am able to time the market so that I can buy back even more coins at a lower price later. Is it a risk? Of course, nothing is certain.

This strategy is okay for me because I spent the last few years hoarding a metric f*ck ton of coins with the express purpose of selling it fairly to suckers that are happily overpaying for things that they do not understand.

Also keep in mind that I have already cashed out millions - so do I actually need more fiat, especially SGD? What am I going to do with more SGD? (Btw, I have been progressively booking profits because I am not a fan of pasta)

Buy "condo and rent out for investment"?
Buy "SGX stonks and collect dividends"?
Top up CPF for 1M65?

LOL.

Exactly my point. 

There's little reason to cash out to SGD if you have nothing good to spend it on. I might as well keep them in my digital rat poison ponzis if the only other options are condos and stonks.

If you actually thought that condos and stonks are a good diversifier, you might have a bad case of the tradfi banker finance boi thinking - that crypto is a one-and-done, get-rich-quick, then take all those profits and put it back into the old school nonsense, HFSP sort of thinking.

Don't think so much about no-coiners, unless you want to join them in having fun staying poor. Who cares about them? Their opinion means nothing in the world of crypto and coins. They have an opinion? Cute, but worthless. Unless they plan to short the markets, they have no power in our realm.

But anyway, I digress. That was tangential to my point and was just me trolling the tradfi HFSP bois.

I wish all my fellow coiners all the best.

My advice is focus on the things that matter to us, here and now. 

Do not to be too greedy and do not think about how much more you want to make - but instead be realistic and simply question how much higher the market can go, when and why.

The enemy of coiners at this point will be our personal greed and inability to accept reality because of self psyops of believing in the supercycle.

I wish you all the best. 

Even the HFSP guys - you can watch how this cycle plays out, again. Maybe you will join the next one. Or the next next one. It is never too late to buy my bags at higher prices. Maybe I can sell you my coins next time for 1000x my cost instead of 100x.

Monday, April 5, 2021

How To Be Rich


Also, no Starbucks

Caipng only.


Trolling aside and honestly speaking, I have come to realize that cutting expenses is the last thing people should be focused on, unless they are frivolous people to begin with. It makes much much more sense to focus on increasing returns through skills and productivity, than to penny pinch.

If I had to give advice to my younger self, it would be to take a step back and thing about solving your problems in a smart way, rather than just diving in head first and getting your hands dirty doing things in the most wasteful and silly way - merely because that is what everyone else says and does.

Everyone wants to be spoon fed the "right way".
Everyone is risk-adverse to a fault, in my opinion. 

You think you can live life without taking any risks and still have lots of upside?
You want to be extraordinary, but you do the exact same thing that everyone else does?

It must be nice, being delusional.


Also as a side-note, for the crypto players, please remember to bank profits along the way. If you f*ck it up this time - again - I don't know what else to say.

Thursday, April 1, 2021

BlackRock bought BTC Futures

BlackRock held $6.1m of BTC futures as per their filing.

Amazing.

So many people falling for this ponzi scam.

Next thing you know, banks will finally offer it to the peasantry after it is over $100,000 USD per coin.

Investment funds will announce how they've owned it for months.

New ETFs and unit trusts will pop up that allow them to buy it.

Pension and Sovereign Wealth Funds infinite bid.

Maybe even... CPF-IS allowed limits to owning some?

Lol.


All for a non-cash flow generating ponzi scheme! 

Very strange.

Very strange indeed.

If I was them, I would buy SGX listed stonks so all sinkies can huat together.

Yes, I am very patriotic.

Anyway, Have fun staying poor!