Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Operation Pasta Preparation

If you're a crypto native, you probably know what that title means.
It is our shared culture, history and hence, our secret code.

I have no idea how this market ends, but one thing is for sure - it cannot go up forever.

A few people have fallen for the "Supercycle" Meme.


But, consider this:

Even if fiat is in decline and eventually becomes worthless, does it happen overnight?

There are plenty of normies and institutions that lag that will cushion the hyperinflation and death of fiat, if it ever comes to that. Plus we as crypto-natives are not only more sensitive to such changes in the wind, but we are also more flexible in both mind and process to shift back our allocation to be heavy crypto if the world is indeed falling apart.

Eventually, the crypto markets will hit its maxima interest of this cycle. I am already seeing complete crypto skeptics throwing in the towel after years of calling it a scam targeted at the low-IQ, to finally dip their low-IQ toes in themselves to see what it is all about.

What happens after the last of these get convinced?

Who are the marginal buyers left in this market?
How much money do they still have left?
Who's the last sucker that will buy the top and hold bags down?

These are questions I ask myself all the time. I do not have the answer.

I don't want to be bearish because I am honestly and truly an omega crypto bull at heart - I have been in this space for years and I live breathe and use all these cryptocurrencies and the dapps on a daily basis. They have plenty of utility to me.

But the marginal buyer is not entering this space to access decentralized finance and claim back sovereignty over their finances.

The marginal buyer read about some spastic blogger living in Singapore who made 8 digits from digital internet ponzis and would also like to get rich quick. 

My current thinking is pretty much still the same as what I wrote in mid Dec 2020, the only difference is that the market has both matured in price and cycle progression. I am up multiples (plural) since the date of that post.

Imagine coming in now, at the all time highs of price and interest, playing against idiots like me who got literally scammed and forced into having 8 digit wealth and are sitting on 4 digits % returns on cost because we bought in more than 10x cheaper than the current prices.

I do not know how this market will play out.

Of course, I hope that it continues to scam up higher. Scam me into multi-generational wealth and into several reasonably sized houses - I will be okay with that.

However, as much as I want to believe in the supercycle meme, my opinion is that it definitely does not apply to many altcoins and it is unlikely for the fiat-crypto chasm to be crossed to quickly by everyone, especially for retail.

The plan for coiners to take profit is always the same:
- simply hodl til the day you need to / want to realize your probably massive returns
- take a bigger risk and hope that you can locate the top to dump, so that you can buy back more lower

I don't particularly think either way is better, it just depends on your own confidence of your personal abilities to do what is best for your long term portfolio (assuming you believe owning more coins is the main goal in the long run)


Perhaps I am being too cautious too soon and too early, but for early coiners (superior subspecies of humans that bought BTC before $20k), you're likely sitting in deep and healthy profits. Use these to level up your life and don't lose it all back to the markets.

Don't get me wrong though - this is not me saying that the market has topped.

But rather, this is just a reminder that some day, some how, you, a coiner, will need to sell (some) coins.

I hope you have an exit strategy to play.

Personally, I have already outlined my strategy since December and it is still the same. I will slowly start selling once we go parabolic, but I have also set aside a permanent stash of crypto that I will never sell.

Me selling only some coins along the upwards parabolic move is my bet that I am able to time the market so that I can buy back even more coins at a lower price later. Is it a risk? Of course, nothing is certain.

This strategy is okay for me because I spent the last few years hoarding a metric f*ck ton of coins with the express purpose of selling it fairly to suckers that are happily overpaying for things that they do not understand.

Also keep in mind that I have already cashed out millions - so do I actually need more fiat, especially SGD? What am I going to do with more SGD? (Btw, I have been progressively booking profits because I am not a fan of pasta)

Buy "condo and rent out for investment"?
Buy "SGX stonks and collect dividends"?
Top up CPF for 1M65?

LOL.

Exactly my point. 

There's little reason to cash out to SGD if you have nothing good to spend it on. I might as well keep them in my digital rat poison ponzis if the only other options are condos and stonks.

If you actually thought that condos and stonks are a good diversifier, you might have a bad case of the tradfi banker finance boi thinking - that crypto is a one-and-done, get-rich-quick, then take all those profits and put it back into the old school nonsense, HFSP sort of thinking.

Don't think so much about no-coiners, unless you want to join them in having fun staying poor. Who cares about them? Their opinion means nothing in the world of crypto and coins. They have an opinion? Cute, but worthless. Unless they plan to short the markets, they have no power in our realm.

But anyway, I digress. That was tangential to my point and was just me trolling the tradfi HFSP bois.

I wish all my fellow coiners all the best.

My advice is focus on the things that matter to us, here and now. 

Do not to be too greedy and do not think about how much more you want to make - but instead be realistic and simply question how much higher the market can go, when and why.

The enemy of coiners at this point will be our personal greed and inability to accept reality because of self psyops of believing in the supercycle.

I wish you all the best. 

Even the HFSP guys - you can watch how this cycle plays out, again. Maybe you will join the next one. Or the next next one. It is never too late to buy my bags at higher prices. Maybe I can sell you my coins next time for 1000x my cost instead of 100x.

4 comments:

Observe the house rules.