Saturday, May 22, 2021

I sold my tokens; Suggest you do the same.

Did that almost give you a heart attack? 

Haha!

It is a popular crypto meme.


I am not sure if this is a function of me being in the crypto markets for so long, or just my mental illness,

But I am largely unfazed about this crypto dump.


I have been steadily taking profits as we rode up and I am happy that I have done so. 

I have built up a massive cash position over the past weeks, 8 figs worth of stables that are actively deployed and earning well in excess of 10% APY.


If you assume I am a pleb with only $10M @ 10%, that works out to be $83,333 a month.

But around these parts 

- we don't use SGD, we use USD

- referring to 10M as 8 figs instead of just 10M is very tiny pp

- 10% yield is a clown rate meant exclusively only for the CeFi plebs

Adjust accordingly.


If the market dumps and bears, I have a thicc fat stable position that just shits out money for me constantly. This is the massive risk premia you get as a defi farmer by not being a tradfi pussy boi. Unfortunately though, the yield will quickly collapse into the teens and then into single digits % if the bear rages on.

If we can get to depression levels, I will have plenty of ammunition to buy some of your bags at -80% discounts. I won't buy all your bags, because some of you are holding pure garbage that are going -99% and aren't coming back.


If the market crabs and goes sideways (very unlikely - markets go up or down, but very very rarely sideways), I continue to print money from both my stables + crypto positions to the tune of 6 figs a month.


If the market bounces and continues the bull run, I am still long and strong with a fat stack of crypto that I hold which will scam me into being ultra rich. I can also re-deploy my stables and continue riding the trend.


I think you can see just how indifferent I am about what the markets does right now. Of course, going up is my preferred outcome since that will make me the most money, but one man and his hopes is not what determines the market.


Hope is not a strategy.


Anyway, I literally cannot be shaken out of my positions.

I am not leveraged.

How much was the number that people were saying you need to have in Singapore to retire comfortable? 

$3.6M? $4.3M? 

Doesn't really matter. I have enough


Mentally, I am prepared for any outcome.

Best case scenario, I continue getting scammed into being ultra rich.

Worst case scenario, we just wait another 4 years for the next cycle, lol.



Welcome to crypto!

I hope you're having fun!

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Evac BlockFi

Quick post.


I actually had a draft post about why I think BlockFi is a very risky custodian to park your assets with, but I never got around to finishing it up and posting it.


2 reasons.


1. They are mega cucked on the GBTC "arb" trade.


2. They screwed up a promotion and credited people with BTC instead of USD (ie. credit 100 BTC instead of $100), and apparently people managed to withdraw BTC before BlockFi realized they were processing withdrawals for people that actually don't have any BTC.


I migrated from BlockFi awhile ago. With their really low rates and all their problems, I think that it is actually very risky to continue leaving your money with them.


I have no funds in BlockFi and I would not recommend anyone to open an account with them or to keep funds with them at the moment.


I personally have over 8 digits with Celsius.


Just saying what I have done for myself. Not asking you to follow suit.


Good luck and stay safe.

Friday, May 14, 2021

Questions regarding Crypto Bear Market

If you read my recent low troll post, and my 2020 year end closing post, you would know that although I call crypto digital rat poison ponzis all the time, I am a long term crypto omega bull.

I firmly believe that we will see the separation of money and state within our lifetimes and it will be because of crypto.

Will it be Bitcoin? Or Ethereum? Or something else? I do not know.

But the really rich and highly educated people no longer debate whether Bitcoin or Ethereum is a scam anymore. Merely asking that question is a self-dox of being a cockroach tier low IQ tradfi NGMI HFSP no-coiner.

They ask themselves questions like, is ETH a better play for the mid term?

Will BTC still be the most resilient asset in a downturn? 

Will BTC's PoW consensus be an issue? Will ETH's PoS change be a game changer?

How quickly would these assets be institutionalized and how much money will be flowing in?


And these questions will naturally lead you to the same conclusion:

Significant amounts of wealth will be stored in crypto, and that you do not own enough crypto. 


That being said, crypto is similar to all financial assets in the sense that it is subject to the speculation and greed of human participants, which causes volatility and drawdowns.

Does drawdowns and bear markets make it a bad long term investment? Probably a question you need to ask yourself.


Eventually, one of these days, we will get a crypto bear market.

- on chain yields will drops to low single digit % (1-6%)

- CeFi yields will drop to mid single digit % (4-8%)

- basis trading will likely yield around 10%

- non-USD yields will be non-existent outside of protocol inflation

- most alts will get smashed -80% against BTC / ETH

- BTC / ETH will get smashed ~50% in USD

- many projects will be abandoned

- many projects will exit scam 

- many tokens will be nearly worthless

- majority of NFTs will have no bids

- gov tokens will plunge in value as there is nothing to govern

- BTC.D / ETH.D will rise


I do not know when this market tops, but I am still long and strong. 

I progressively take profits, not because I need to, but because it helps me mentally stay steadfast in the positioning for my remaining portfolio.

I am always looking for changes in the wind and I am ready in both mind and body to restructure my portfolio significantly based on my reads on the market and how I expect things to play out.

The recent comments by Elon might be the turning point that ETH becomes the most likely competitor to usurp BTC. Many think it is not possible, yet this is something that I viewed as inevitable, although I was not banking on the weak BTC narrative to be realized by the market so quickly.


Anyway, I do not know how the market plays out. 

Will it crash soon? Will it crash ever? (Yes.)

When is a good time to buy? What is a good price to buy? (Yes.)

Which asset to buy, and when to sell? (Yes.)


If I knew, I'd just bet all my money + borrow from others, rather than tell you for free right? 


I am just betting that crypto "number go up" in the long run and there's nothing you can do about it, except to capitulate and join the ponzi early and be rich, or late and continue the plebian lifestyle.


I hope you're having fun.

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

$10,000,000 in rat poison ponzis


CPF 10M65?

No no.

How about, Crypto 10M35 instead?



Also, value is in USD, not gross SGD.


Have fun staying poor

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

CPF Rich, IQ Poor

I used to think 1M65 was stupid.

And then I heard of 4M65.




Now we have a new challenger.

It just keeps getting better and better.


https://dollarsandsense.sg/singaporeans-10m65-cpf/


Step 1: read that post

Step 2: think its a good idea

Step 3: do it


Congratulations, you're the winning loser!


Have fun being CPF rich!

Saturday, May 8, 2021

A Rare Crypto Minimal Troll Post

Hello dear reader.

I get a lot of feedback about my writing style and the persona that I adopt - some of you absolutely hate the arrogance that oozes out of every pore of my existence, some of you are thrilled and squeal with delight everytime I drop down the "HFSP" hammer on the no-coiners tradfi bros.

Truth be told, there is no need for me to be another basic crypto cheerleader. Across the various social media platforms, there are plenty of people willing to shill you crypto at all different levels, from multiple point of views. But for obvious reasons, that strategy fails to target the complete spectrum of no-coiners. And that is where my persona comes in. I will inadvertently psyops the remaining people to join this revolution by just simply flexing the truth.

That is why I feel comfortable with my style, since it self-selects the people who are willing to self-educate. Those that end up taking my HFSP bait are the cut-off, and beyond that is generational HFSP.

That is one of the reasons why I begrudgingly still maintain my public ENS - simply to flex the truth. You should know that it is actually quite costly for me to flex, since I cannot play freely and without constraint since it is an address being carefully watched by everyone. I might close up that address one day.

Maybe I should be "humble" with my "luck" and not be so "arrogant"? The truth is the truth, whether you accept it or not. 

But I digress. If making money in the easiest market in the world and being rich won't convince you to explore this industry, then honestly and truly, you are destined to have fun staying poor.

When the mind has closed itself off to accept new external information and loses its ability to recalibrate and re-route, it is a lost cause. There is no point arguing with the stubborn. You can only wish them the best and hope that they have fun.


I have resigned to the fact that I cannot and I do not want to go out of my way to convince random people to engage in things that is likely above their IQ grade and will get them absolutely rekt. 

Getting absolutely rekt is not an exaggeration - most of the people I know that entered the space got brutalized and massacred. Many from leveraged trading. Many from buying absolute trash. Yet, in that same vein, the handful that survived and soldiered on, are burning brightly and gloriously on their own merit. It has been my honor to have been the BMT sergeant to some of them and to teach them the basics to survive in this hellish battlefield, but many have now branched out to things beyond my own areas of expertise and have managed to thrive and succeed through their own hard work. The landscape is so vast, we all don't need to till the same area with the same strategy to make it.

Most players that survived the last bear market are now sitting on at least 6 fig profits. You'd be surprised how many 7 figure crypto vets walk amongst us, shit posting all day long.

One of the main reasons why I shadowbox with "tradfi banker bros" is due to past real life interactions that I had with many, many of them. Tradfi players across the whole spectrum, from RMs to analysts to fund managers. Every single time it was regurgitating the same Buffet-esque points over and over again.

The same disgusted dismissive look when they realize that they are in contact with absolute trash degenerate filth that is socially beneath them.

But now though, I don't have to listen what these lesser performers have to say. 

Why listen to people that you've already beaten, in this money game called "investing"?

---------------

One of the strangest things that baffles me as someone who has been at the extreme deep end of crypto for a while now, is hearing this repeated notion of "taking profits in crypto and then moving it back into SAFE / REAL assets, like stocks or real estate".

I'm going to be frank with you - I believe that to be cope, poverty thoughts.

It is a massive delusion that "crypto" as an asset class is unsafe, not tangible, exists in a transient state of legitimacy, at the complete mercy of government regulations for it to be useful or valuable.

The irony of crypto being "unsafe" or "not real" is hilarious to me, because I view Bitcoin now as the default option for my own long term store of wealth. I have zero desire to own any stocks or other "financial" assets simply because I do not believe that they can or will outperform money printing. And the added bonus of being a digital asset, Bitcoin has an in-built a call option if it ends up being used in the digital future. 

Here is a framework that I would like to share: 


The long term thesis is dead simple - A useful digital asset that is also hedge against money printing.

The mid term (2-4 years) is driven by the hype/interest/investment cycles. After price is depressed and short term speculators leave the system, the system continues growing and building value (because of the long term), and new participants and money enters the space. Price rises, hype increases, speculation returns, prices explode up.

And at some point of this mid term cycle, the incoming demand of money gets engulfed by the supply of sellers - participants who were early who are sitting on large unrealized profits and they want to cash out to buy their fancy cars and watches. When this happens, and sell supply is more than buy demand, prices fall and get depressed, and the cycle continues.

It is momentum up, it is momentum down.

This ain't rocket science. It's basic supply and demand, along with human greed. 

Don't confuse the mid term with the long term, or you'll be bagholding while high on your own supercycle supply.

The short term cycle is similar to the mid term cycle, but happens within weeks. Speculators are bullish and increase leverage in the system. It is a mini momentum trade, until the funding rates on derivatives are too high and unsustainable, so people exit and sell. This is why short term volatility in the crypto market still exists, from these mini leveraging and deleveraging events driven mainly by speculators on derivatives.


Of course, all this is just my own personal framework on how I think about the crypto markets.

Some people think short term cycles are based on TA and moon cycles.

Some people do not believe in mid term cycles and believe that we will just supercycle.

Most people do not believe in the long term and view crypto as a "Get Rich and Fuck Off" scheme, so they can buy stonks and condos, lol.

Personally, I do not care what you think. After all, people with differing opinions expressing them with money bets is exactly what makes a market, does it not?

Come, bet against me. Short crypto. Man up, put up, or shut up.

But this framework helps me look at the bigger picture to navigate and make sense of what is happening. Maybe it is useful to you. Maybe you will modify it to simplify it, or add things to it that you think are relevant. So maybe it helps you? Maybe it doesn't.

I am not saying that Bitcoin and other crypto assets will not "crash" in the future. I can absolutely guarantee you that they will "crash". Does that scare you? Are you scared? Will you walk away?


If you still think crypto assets are worthless speculative lottery tickets rat poison ponzis,

all I can say is,


Have Fun Staying Poor

Friday, May 7, 2021

Your Benchmark should be the Rate of Money Printing, not the STI or S&P500

This is the M1 money supply in Singapore.

Some notes:

- Between slope 1 and slope 2, this small thing called the Great Financial Crisis happened.

- I wonder what slope 4 would look like?

- Slope 3 looks kind of steep. I wonder what happened in 2020?


M1 increased by 37% since 2020.

Oh, your investments didn't go up by at least 37% since 2020? 

Seems like you're down with a bad case of late stage NGMI.

I have the cure, but that requires you to take the red pill, which most patients refuse.

If not, the best that I can do is prescribe to you the HFSP placebo to treat the symptoms while you slowly die.

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Humility Based Investing

Some think that the max pain scenario is for the crypto "lucky" / "arrogant" like myself to get rekt and have their networths plunge -80% after this irrational crypto bull run is over.

"To teach them a lesson in what REAL proper investing is", so to speak.

And we will realize that crypto was all just a scam.

And we will go back to buy stonks that pay out dividends,

And buy an OCR condo and play landlord to collect rent,

And then can F.I.R.E. the "proper" way.

Living the "correct" Singaporean dream.

Buy whole life insurnace.

Buy unit trusts.

No Starbucks.

Caipng only.

1M65.

Lol.


But perhaps, the max pain scenario is the opposite?


The max pain scenario is crypto grinding up,

while the crypto "lucky" continue to get scammed even deeper into being ultra rich,

while everyone one else watching is having mega a lot of fun.


The max pain scenario is meant for the no-coiners.

No max pain for crypto chads.

Only max glory.


Everyday that I continue staying invested in crypto,

Is yet another day that I'm getting scammed into being even richer than yesterday.


Ah, can you imagine the smell?

Can you taste their tears?

ITS SO SALTY AND DELICIOUS I LOVE IT.



It is funny how "arrogance" causes behavioral and emotional biases in investing.

When you realize that the market doesn't give a damn about how much money I already made from crypto,

Or how much money I will continue to make,

Or that your opinion on this matter has literally zero impact because who the fuck are you,


Then you have reached enlightenment

And perhaps,

Just perhaps,

You might be able to stop having fun.


But until then,

Have Fun Staying Poor

Sunday, May 2, 2021

WAGMI, but probably not you

*This* is the real long-term case for Crypto.

Not if you can buy your Starbucks or caipng using BTC - which by the way, is pretty fucking retarded, but if that is your counter-argument, congratulations on attaining your NGMI accreditation.

If you think about your investments based on cashflows, dividends and growth, but you don't take into account the money printing, congratulations on attaining your HFSP accreditation.

Of course, if you are in the tradfi space as a finblogger or banker bro, congratulations because you're automatically conferred the dual NGMI HFSP accreditation based on your profile!


Global warming, environment concerns? NGMI.

Funding terrorism, dirty money? HFSP.

THE GOVERNMENT WILL REGULATE IT? Immediate fast-tracked NGMI HFSP summa cum laude.


People will be jealous about not being as "lucky" as the crypto nouveau riche.

Pure cope.


But let's assume you were "lucky" enough to buy into any crypto early enough,

Weak pussy hands don't have the ability to hold on to their golden ticket.

"Sell half when it doubles, protect your capital, and let the free profits ride".

Gross poverty thoughts.


If you never had the intellectual curiosity to learn, the bravery to buy, the tenacity to hold through hell and high water, there is no imaginary fantasy parallel universes where you would then somehow magically develop the conviction to hold an asset up 2x or 10x or 100x or 250x.

But I have. 

How very "lucky" of me.


And that's why I am team WAGMI.

And that's why you are NGMI HFSP summa cum laude.

Saturday, May 1, 2021

Video Instruction on getting the NGMI HSFP accreditation

You absolutely love to see it.

If you agreed with much of this video, it's okay.

Not everyone can make it.


By the way,

People from tradfi sound *exactly* like this.

And that's why they have so much fun.