Saturday, May 8, 2021

A Rare Crypto Minimal Troll Post

Hello dear reader.

I get a lot of feedback about my writing style and the persona that I adopt - some of you absolutely hate the arrogance that oozes out of every pore of my existence, some of you are thrilled and squeal with delight everytime I drop down the "HFSP" hammer on the no-coiners tradfi bros.

Truth be told, there is no need for me to be another basic crypto cheerleader. Across the various social media platforms, there are plenty of people willing to shill you crypto at all different levels, from multiple point of views. But for obvious reasons, that strategy fails to target the complete spectrum of no-coiners. And that is where my persona comes in. I will inadvertently psyops the remaining people to join this revolution by just simply flexing the truth.

That is why I feel comfortable with my style, since it self-selects the people who are willing to self-educate. Those that end up taking my HFSP bait are the cut-off, and beyond that is generational HFSP.

That is one of the reasons why I begrudgingly still maintain my public ENS - simply to flex the truth. You should know that it is actually quite costly for me to flex, since I cannot play freely and without constraint since it is an address being carefully watched by everyone. I might close up that address one day.

Maybe I should be "humble" with my "luck" and not be so "arrogant"? The truth is the truth, whether you accept it or not. 

But I digress. If making money in the easiest market in the world and being rich won't convince you to explore this industry, then honestly and truly, you are destined to have fun staying poor.

When the mind has closed itself off to accept new external information and loses its ability to recalibrate and re-route, it is a lost cause. There is no point arguing with the stubborn. You can only wish them the best and hope that they have fun.


I have resigned to the fact that I cannot and I do not want to go out of my way to convince random people to engage in things that is likely above their IQ grade and will get them absolutely rekt. 

Getting absolutely rekt is not an exaggeration - most of the people I know that entered the space got brutalized and massacred. Many from leveraged trading. Many from buying absolute trash. Yet, in that same vein, the handful that survived and soldiered on, are burning brightly and gloriously on their own merit. It has been my honor to have been the BMT sergeant to some of them and to teach them the basics to survive in this hellish battlefield, but many have now branched out to things beyond my own areas of expertise and have managed to thrive and succeed through their own hard work. The landscape is so vast, we all don't need to till the same area with the same strategy to make it.

Most players that survived the last bear market are now sitting on at least 6 fig profits. You'd be surprised how many 7 figure crypto vets walk amongst us, shit posting all day long.

One of the main reasons why I shadowbox with "tradfi banker bros" is due to past real life interactions that I had with many, many of them. Tradfi players across the whole spectrum, from RMs to analysts to fund managers. Every single time it was regurgitating the same Buffet-esque points over and over again.

The same disgusted dismissive look when they realize that they are in contact with absolute trash degenerate filth that is socially beneath them.

But now though, I don't have to listen what these lesser performers have to say. 

Why listen to people that you've already beaten, in this money game called "investing"?

---------------

One of the strangest things that baffles me as someone who has been at the extreme deep end of crypto for a while now, is hearing this repeated notion of "taking profits in crypto and then moving it back into SAFE / REAL assets, like stocks or real estate".

I'm going to be frank with you - I believe that to be cope, poverty thoughts.

It is a massive delusion that "crypto" as an asset class is unsafe, not tangible, exists in a transient state of legitimacy, at the complete mercy of government regulations for it to be useful or valuable.

The irony of crypto being "unsafe" or "not real" is hilarious to me, because I view Bitcoin now as the default option for my own long term store of wealth. I have zero desire to own any stocks or other "financial" assets simply because I do not believe that they can or will outperform money printing. And the added bonus of being a digital asset, Bitcoin has an in-built a call option if it ends up being used in the digital future. 

Here is a framework that I would like to share: 


The long term thesis is dead simple - A useful digital asset that is also hedge against money printing.

The mid term (2-4 years) is driven by the hype/interest/investment cycles. After price is depressed and short term speculators leave the system, the system continues growing and building value (because of the long term), and new participants and money enters the space. Price rises, hype increases, speculation returns, prices explode up.

And at some point of this mid term cycle, the incoming demand of money gets engulfed by the supply of sellers - participants who were early who are sitting on large unrealized profits and they want to cash out to buy their fancy cars and watches. When this happens, and sell supply is more than buy demand, prices fall and get depressed, and the cycle continues.

It is momentum up, it is momentum down.

This ain't rocket science. It's basic supply and demand, along with human greed. 

Don't confuse the mid term with the long term, or you'll be bagholding while high on your own supercycle supply.

The short term cycle is similar to the mid term cycle, but happens within weeks. Speculators are bullish and increase leverage in the system. It is a mini momentum trade, until the funding rates on derivatives are too high and unsustainable, so people exit and sell. This is why short term volatility in the crypto market still exists, from these mini leveraging and deleveraging events driven mainly by speculators on derivatives.


Of course, all this is just my own personal framework on how I think about the crypto markets.

Some people think short term cycles are based on TA and moon cycles.

Some people do not believe in mid term cycles and believe that we will just supercycle.

Most people do not believe in the long term and view crypto as a "Get Rich and Fuck Off" scheme, so they can buy stonks and condos, lol.

Personally, I do not care what you think. After all, people with differing opinions expressing them with money bets is exactly what makes a market, does it not?

Come, bet against me. Short crypto. Man up, put up, or shut up.

But this framework helps me look at the bigger picture to navigate and make sense of what is happening. Maybe it is useful to you. Maybe you will modify it to simplify it, or add things to it that you think are relevant. So maybe it helps you? Maybe it doesn't.

I am not saying that Bitcoin and other crypto assets will not "crash" in the future. I can absolutely guarantee you that they will "crash". Does that scare you? Are you scared? Will you walk away?


If you still think crypto assets are worthless speculative lottery tickets rat poison ponzis,

all I can say is,


Have Fun Staying Poor

2 comments:

  1. Hi G. I am new to the crypto space recently and believe in its longevity . While i try not to time the market, prices across the spectrum are really ATHs. Some might suggest DCA. Some might just tell me to just buy cuz it is a supercycle. What is ur advice as a "officer" or OG in crypto to newbies who are entering market now?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Your sarcastic writing style needs some getting used to in the very beginning when I first stumbled upon your blog, and now i treated it like entertainment, and part education.

    My fave side of gmgh has always been the one who'd dig through the dirt, develop his own reason and conviction, hold with diamond hands, btfd when the time comes, and just rambles whatever's on his mind

    I just love reading your finance and even lifestyle rants lol. I religiously scroll through your old posts when they were still here, tho I understood like 50% minus the technical stuff.

    And i respect you for all that you have done. That you truly hope some people will make it because they listened. Thanks, you're a godsend, at least to me and some others.

    I just hope you are happy. You're a wonderful person.

    ReplyDelete

Observe the house rules.