Friday, May 14, 2021

Questions regarding Crypto Bear Market

If you read my recent low troll post, and my 2020 year end closing post, you would know that although I call crypto digital rat poison ponzis all the time, I am a long term crypto omega bull.

I firmly believe that we will see the separation of money and state within our lifetimes and it will be because of crypto.

Will it be Bitcoin? Or Ethereum? Or something else? I do not know.

But the really rich and highly educated people no longer debate whether Bitcoin or Ethereum is a scam anymore. Merely asking that question is a self-dox of being a cockroach tier low IQ tradfi NGMI HFSP no-coiner.

They ask themselves questions like, is ETH a better play for the mid term?

Will BTC still be the most resilient asset in a downturn? 

Will BTC's PoW consensus be an issue? Will ETH's PoS change be a game changer?

How quickly would these assets be institutionalized and how much money will be flowing in?


And these questions will naturally lead you to the same conclusion:

Significant amounts of wealth will be stored in crypto, and that you do not own enough crypto. 


That being said, crypto is similar to all financial assets in the sense that it is subject to the speculation and greed of human participants, which causes volatility and drawdowns.

Does drawdowns and bear markets make it a bad long term investment? Probably a question you need to ask yourself.


Eventually, one of these days, we will get a crypto bear market.

- on chain yields will drops to low single digit % (1-6%)

- CeFi yields will drop to mid single digit % (4-8%)

- basis trading will likely yield around 10%

- non-USD yields will be non-existent outside of protocol inflation

- most alts will get smashed -80% against BTC / ETH

- BTC / ETH will get smashed ~50% in USD

- many projects will be abandoned

- many projects will exit scam 

- many tokens will be nearly worthless

- majority of NFTs will have no bids

- gov tokens will plunge in value as there is nothing to govern

- BTC.D / ETH.D will rise


I do not know when this market tops, but I am still long and strong. 

I progressively take profits, not because I need to, but because it helps me mentally stay steadfast in the positioning for my remaining portfolio.

I am always looking for changes in the wind and I am ready in both mind and body to restructure my portfolio significantly based on my reads on the market and how I expect things to play out.

The recent comments by Elon might be the turning point that ETH becomes the most likely competitor to usurp BTC. Many think it is not possible, yet this is something that I viewed as inevitable, although I was not banking on the weak BTC narrative to be realized by the market so quickly.


Anyway, I do not know how the market plays out. 

Will it crash soon? Will it crash ever? (Yes.)

When is a good time to buy? What is a good price to buy? (Yes.)

Which asset to buy, and when to sell? (Yes.)


If I knew, I'd just bet all my money + borrow from others, rather than tell you for free right? 


I am just betting that crypto "number go up" in the long run and there's nothing you can do about it, except to capitulate and join the ponzi early and be rich, or late and continue the plebian lifestyle.


I hope you're having fun.

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  2. I am actually looking forward to the bear market to punish all the malinvestments and weakhands. Whenever I feel like self-psyops myself this is the supercycle, it is probably time to re-read Devil Take the Hindmost. However, if I don't own any crypto now, I should be worried af.

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  5. Hi GMGH,

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